John’s 2022 PGA Championship Betting Card And Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on May 18, 2022
pga championship betting

Major No. 2 is officially upon us as we dive into 2022 PGA Championship odds. This is shaping up to be an incredible week of golf on a beautiful, unique, challenging, and historic venue at Southern Hills. There are no shortage of storylines between Tiger’s return since winning the 2007 PGA Championship, Phil Mickelson’s absence as the defending PGA Champion, and Jordan Spieth’s quest for the career Grand Slam. Below, you’ll find where I landed in my personal golf betting accounts for the 2022 PGA Championship.

Overall it is shaping up more and more to play like a scrambling fest, with windy conditions growing more ominous by the day. With this being an elongated major venue, there’s still plenty of value in elite ball striking, but I built my golf betting card around reliable scramblers who are comfortable scoring in ugly conditions.

Click on the golf odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 PGA Championship bets as well.

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S. Scheffler
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+1200
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+1100
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+1100
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+1100
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+1100
J. Rahm
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+1200
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+1200
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+1200
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+1200
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+1100
R. McIlroy
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+1200
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+1400
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+1400
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+1400
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+1400
J. Thomas
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+1400
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+1600
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+1400
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+1600
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+1600
C. Morikawa
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+1400
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+1600
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+1600
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+1600
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+1600

HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

I did not land on a very contrarian card this week, but that’s never really the point of outright betting. When it comes to betting a Major, with odds present throughout the year, a good card usually comes down to betting at the right time, and taking advantage of any special odds promos at your disposal. In the case of my card, I didn’t have the luxury of many promos, but I am happy with the numbers I was able to scoop by staying patient throughout the week. Overall, I wanted to make sure I had exposure to elite shot-makers with top-tier short games first and foremost, balanced with a list of high variance longshots, given the history of surprise winners at the PGA Championship.

In terms of unit allocation, it’s a Major, so I upped the stakes ever so slightly across the board (3.8U in to pay 30U each), props (3.5U in to pay out 4U+ each) and FRL (0.5U in to pay out 10U+). Same proportions as a normal betting week, just higher stakes to match that major atmosphere.

More Golf Betting: Southern Hills CC Course Preview

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.8 UNITS)

Jordan Spieth

My Bet: +2500

Best Odds Still Available:

At the first major of the year, I found myself regretting every futures ticket I placed, with better odds drifting over the course of the week. So this time around for the PGA Championship, I practiced more patience, and waited until this past Sunday to place my first outright bet: Jordan Spieth.

He is my spotlight player of the week, which is not going out on much of a limb, but considering all the comp course signals, course profile for create shot-making, and recent form, having nearly won each of his last two starts, there’s no reason not to like Spieth’s chances at Southern Hills as he chases the career Grand Slam.

Cameron Smith

My Bet: +3500

Best Odds Still Available:

The second bet I placed this week was on Cam Smith, the product of a Draft Kings price correction error on Sunday. The 35-1 number did not last long, and has closed at 22-1 by week’s end.

It’s no secret that short game is going to decide the winner at Southern Hills, and Smith rivals anyone else on TOUR when it comes to touch around the greens. I’m not as concerned with his driver inaccuracy on this course after the work done to expand the fairways, and think the Augusta comps feed further into the strength of his game.

Shane Lowry

My Bet: +3500

Best Odds Still Available:

I couldn’t tell you the last time I’ve bet Shane Lowry, but what I will say, is there’s been a moment in each of his last five starts where I’ve regretted not pulling the trigger on him. Now in pure grinder’s fest, we have perfect conditions in store for Shane Lowry to take full advantage of. He’s finished top-15 in each of his last five starts, including three top-3 results over that span. He’s clicking in all facets of the game right now, should be able to rely most heavily on his long-term deft touch around the greens to gain on the field and make a push for his second career major.

Daniel Berger

My Bet: +7500

Best Odds Still Available:

This is a value bet on Berger at drifted odds far beyond his caliber of talent. He’s proven to be back in good health after a solid T20 showing at the RBC Heritage, and has established himself as a winner with elite irons on TOUR, which should translate to any major championship. He has developed a reputation for not showing up in big tournaments, but that seems like a bit of a misconception considering he’s achieved top-12 finishes across all four majors. I’m most encouraged to see Berger’s strong performance at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, which should simulate similar difficult conditions. Combine that with his elite Colonial history, and there’s plenty of signals in Berger’s favor ahead of this week.

Cameron Young

My Bet: +11000

Best Odds Still Available:

I knew when I saw triple digit odds on Cameron Young, it wasn’t going to last long. It’s a longshot to ask a rookie to pick up his first career professional victory in a major, but then again, these are longshot odds. Young hasn’t folded in pressure moments yet, finishing top three in strong field events like the Genesis, RBC Heritage, and Wells Fargo Championship over the last three months. He’s been a tee-to-green machine, over that span, and is due to find a strong putting performance soon, especially on familiar Bentgrass greens.

Jason Kokrak

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

Jason Kokrak was nearly the spotlight player of the week this week, with many signals pointing his way to find success at Southern Hills. He’s picked up victories over the past year at the Charles Schwab Challenge and Houston Open, both neighboring Oklahoma on comp courses in similar windy conditions. His around the green game is steadily improving, and as the no. 1 Bentgrass putter in this field, he has the combination of length and short game to generate ample scoring opportunities on this golf course.

Mito Pereira

My Bet: +30000

Best Odds Still Available:

Last week I went on record as saying I was not going to bet Mito Pereira … and then I did it anyway. This week, it’s a major, and he’s 300-1, so I’m not going into it without a Mito ticket. He continues to be a par-making machine, and his ranks of top-10 in SG: APP, SG: Ball Striking, and Bogey Avoidance set up a nice floor for Mito. If he can ever string four positive putting rounds together, he will actually be a threat to win.

FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Louis Oosthuizen

My Bet: +7500

Best Odds Still Available:

If FRL rule no. 1 is to always bet Sebastian Munoz, then FRL rule no. 2 is to always bet Louis Oosthuizen in majors.

His recent form has dropped himself into the 75-1 odds range, but if we’re to believe he’s been gingerly nursing himself back to full health since the last major season, then an able-bodied Oosthuizen should thrive in these conditions. There are too many question marks behind the state of Louis’ game to feel confident beyond a FRL, but I like the price for the pedigree alone.

Brooks Koepka

My Bet: +7500

Best Odds Still Available:

Logic and stats do not apply to Brooks Koepka in majors. Despite there being no signs that his current form is ready for a major, that’s never seemed to matter. He got off to a hot start at the 2021 PGA Championship despite entering off of back-to-back MCs, so if this is a leap of faith bet, it’s easier to throw down at 75-1 odds.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +7500

Best Odds Still Available:

I am a sick, sick man for going right back to Keegan Bradley immediately after ripping our hearts out with a mediocre Sunday at the Wells Fargo Championship. However, the putter looked shockingly reliable, which is enough to keep me coming back to the former PGA Champion. He’s been kind to us in the FRL market before, and has the T2G game once again to score well on this course.

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +8500

Best Odds Still Available:

Rule no. 1: Always bet Sebastion Munoz FRL.

Right, we covered that.

Fresh off a FRL cash at the AT&T Byron Nelson, it’s hard to believe he’ll do it again, but I will never stop backing my boy, the Thursday GOAT.

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PROPS (3.5 UNITS)

Top-10 Finish: Scottie Scheffler

My Bet: +160

Best Odds Still Available:

There is still no reason to believe the Scottie Scheffler heater will end, especially not on a “feel” course that draws similarities to Augusta National and has already been quoted by Scheffler himself as his favorite course in the world to play. It sounds crazy to say in the strongest field of the season, but I don’t think Scottie needs his best stuff to finish T10 at Southern Hills. If this bet fails, then great, my outrights have a chance!

Top-40 Finish: Patrick Reed

My Bet: +220

Best Odds Still Available:

These odds in the top-40 market are typically reserved for squeamish longshots with very little pedigree. It seems mispriced to me that we’re getting Patrick Reed for a modest T40 finish at longer than 2-1 odds.

The recent results leave plenty to be desired, but difficult conditions should be a welcomed sight for Reed, who’s always been at his best at courses that shift the premiums from ball striking to short game.

Patrick Reed has finished top 40 or better in nine of his last ten major appearances. Forget the recent form, sometimes you have to focus on major pedigree in golf betting.

Top-20 Finish: Talor Gooch

My Bet: +500

Best Odds Still Available:

I love this price on Talor Gooch, who gets a homecoming as the only Oklahoma-born player in this field. He’s well adapted to the Oklahoma-style of golf that demands precise flighting underneath high, gusting winds, which should give him a leg up on a majority of the field who are coming in relatively fresh to Southern Hills.

Gooch is coming off of an impressive T14 finish in his Masters debut last month, and he should be able channel some similar shot-making this time around. A top-10 player in terms of Bogey Avoidance and SG: ARG, Gooch rated out No. 20 overall in my model this week, a good omen for the T20 bet.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Cameron Smith

Last year, I went the entire season without using Cameron Smith in OAD. A lot has changed for Smith since last year, picking up early victories at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and THE PLAYERS, but I still struggle to associate him with any must-play events. This week, as I continue to remain in an OAD hole, I’m hoping a Smith victory, which is fully plausible, is contrarian enough to make up some ground, with others more naturally favoring Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth.

So if I’m going to use Cameron Smith, better to do so on a course with forgiving fairways that puts an emphasis on your short game. That’s a perfect recipe at Southern Hills, so I’m hoping he still carries a chip on his shoulder for unfinished business to capture his first major since since taking a dive into Rae’s Creek to bow out of The Masters.

If not Smith, I would also consider Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, or Shane Lowry.

THE GOLF BETTING CARD: PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETS

golf betting card

That’ll do it for my golf betting card for the PGA Championship. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting, and see you on Sunday for the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Preview!

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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