The 2022 Memorial Tournament Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on June 1, 2022
golf betting

It’s the end of another short week of golf betting research as the PGA TOUR gets ready for its next leg, the 2022 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village. This week, it’s LIV Golf that’s dominated conversation around the sport, as we’ve officially gotten a first look at who has and has not decided to take the plunge with the Saudis. While that topic will now not go away in any press interviews with the PGA TOUR players for the foreseeable future, we’ll still steer this article to the premiere golf tournament in the world this week, which takes place in Dublin, Ohio.

The Memorial Tournament is one which has predominantly separated the men from the boys over the years, as a stern tee-to-green test that rewards experience and course familiarity. Similar to the approach to a Major week, I kept a tight pool of players who enter in solid all-around form with proven high finishes in prior trips to this event. With that in mind, let’s get to the final betting card for the 2022 Memorial Tournament.

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HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

Justin Thomas at the Valspar Championship is the only other instance in 2022 where I’ve bet the odds-on favorite. That almost worked out for us, but it’s a very vulnerable strategy to go all-in on one player to win a full field golf tournament. In the case of the Memorial, there are just too many signs pointing in Rahm’s direction, and for a player who lived in the single-digits odds range for the first few months of this year, it would be sensible for all books to price him much shorter on the course he’s been the most dominant on throughout his career.

So by starting with Rahm, it’s a tight card, and we’ll need the Spaniard to channel his inner vengeance or else I’m spending the whole weekend over-analyzing the RBC Canadian Open. In terms of unit allocation, it’s the standard across the board once again for outrights (3U in to pay 24U each), props (3U in to pay out 3U+ each) and FRL (0.5U in to pay out 10U+).

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THE MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Jon Rahm

My Bet: +1100

Best Odds Still Available:

Very rarely do I feel compelled to side with the first player at the top of the board, but I’m looking to end a frigid cold outright-less draught, so we look to Rahm as the remedy on one of his greatest comfort courses on TOUR. It would not be possible to look better than Rahm has in his last two trips to Muirfield Village. He’s gained 37 strokes over his last seven rounds here going back to 2020, which would suggest he doesn’t even need his best stuff to hang around the top of the leaderboard this week. His short game has been below standard in 2022, but it’s been near perfect historically on these grounds. We should expect the ball striking to separate Rahm from the pack over the course of four rounds this week, so if his short game corrects itself to average levels, he may just cruise for a third straight year.

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Max Homa

My Bet: +4500

Best Odds Still Available:

There’s plenty of hype around Cameron Young and Will Zalatoris this week, but I can’t justify paying a shorter price for two players without any course history to speak of, still seeking their first career PGA TOUR victories. With Homa, there’s no question he’s comfortable when in contention, and we have less guess work in terms of the course fit, as he showed us he can navigate these grounds just fine with a T6 finish in his latest appearance in 2021. I’m always going to look Homa’s way on a course which puts a premium on Par-5 Scoring. He ranks No. 6 in that category in this field, to go along with top-15 ranks in other key stat categories including SG: T2G, SG: APP, SG: OTT, P4: 450-500, and Comp Course History. It may be asking a lot for Homa to pick up two wins over a stretch of four starts, but his confidence should be at an all time high, and he hasn’t shown signs of regression according to the stats or eye test.

Si Woo Kim

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Si Woo Kim is not a 100-1 talent, so this is a pure value play on a tight card that is starved for it. Kim enters in great T2G form, having gained in 11 of his last 12 events. Muirfield Village can quickly expose players with any holes in their games, so 100-1 odds is just too much juice pass up on a player who’s proven he can gain strokes in all facets of his game. That profile has translated to results at the Memorial too, as he’s never missed the cut here in five career appearances, including back to back T20 finishes in his previous two trips.

Anirban Lahiri

My Bet: +17500

Best Odds Still Available:

Last week I abandoned Webb Simpson from my betting card after featuring him as my Spotlight player of the week, and instead chose Tony Finau. That ended up being the right call, but it still felt wrong. So this week, I wasn’t going to let Anirban Lahiri escape the card. Like the rest of my bets, Lahiri also has a T10 finish at the Memorial to his name, when he finished runner up to Jason Dufner in 2017. Lahiri has never missed a cut or gained less than 3 strokes on approach at the Memorial, and now enters in elite form off the tee, having gained in 14 straight events OTT leading into his previous start at the PGA Championship.

FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +6600

Best Odds Still Available:

Keegan Bradley has let us down plenty of times on Sunday already this year, but he’s been kinder to our golf betting wallets on Thursday alone. I really like TPC Potomac as a comp course this week, so the form and recent results at comp courses would suggest he’s due to generate more scoring opportunities this week.

Chris Kirk

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

Chris Kirk continues to ride a hot hand from tee to green, maintaining a streak of 12 straight events in which he’s gained strokes T2G to kick off his 2022 season. He was a co-first round leader at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week, so we know the form is in a place to get off to a hot start once again at Muirfield Village.

Anirban Lahiri

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Doubling down on my man Anirban Lahiri here to get off to a hot start on Thursday. All the stats say he’s better than a 100-1 golfer, and the consistency at this course presents upside that this stretch of strong play won’t end now.

Erik Van Rooyen

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

All the stats may not back this up, but Muirfield Village just has the feel of being an EVR course. For a FRL bet, it’s 90% chasing a feeling, and my gut says to go with the volatile Van Rooyen at gaudy odds.

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

I was super high on Aaron Rai as FRL last week at Colonial CC, and that did not work out well for us. Even still, it doesn’t change the fact that he’s a top-five R1 scorer over the last month, so regardless of course fit, I’ll roll the dice on what the numbers say.

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PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Xander Schauffele

My Bet: +105

Best Odds Still Available:

Xander has finished T20 in 7 of his first 11 PGA TOUR starts in 2022, and has finished T20 in three our of four career appearances at the Memorial. The man is a proven T20 machine, especially in more difficult conditions, and any way you slice it, he should not be getting plus-odds to continue such a strong trend.

Top-20 Finish: Shane Lowry

My Bet: +120

Best Odds Still Available:

Speaking of trends, Shane Lowry has made six starts in 2022 and finished inside the Top-20 all but once. That one exception was a T23 at the PGA Championship in his latest start, so it’s clear the game is in a great place right now. He’s played the Memorial four times in the last five years and finished inside the top-20 twice, so the trends would all suggest the Irishman is more likely than not to post another T20 in Dublin when combining his course history with recent form. I don’t usually place multiple prop bets at odds this short, but it shapes up to be a double conviction bet kind of week.

Top-20 Finish: Ryan Moore

My Bet: +1600

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s always a gamble when you throw down a placement bet with odds this long, but I’m taking a leap of faith that Moore, who hasn’t played in a professional golf event since the WMPO in February, has used his off time to sharpen up and take advantage of his final major medical exemption. While the recent form is a mystery, the course history is amongst the best in this field, with seven T20s over 15 career starts.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Max Homa

I’m in a massive hole in OAD, and at this stage of the season, I’m only going to get out of it by picking low owned players who are not top-10 favorites to win. With Homa, we get a proven winner who’s already picked up two PGA TOUR wins in 2022, on a course he’s already seen success at before taking his game to new heights.

If not Homa, I would also consider Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry, or Matt Fitzpatrick. Good luck with all your golf betting this week!

THE GOLF BETTING CARD: CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE BETS

That’ll do it for my golf betting card for the Memorial Tournament. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting, and see you on Sunday for the 2022 RBC Canadian Open Preview!

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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