Typically a lock to be one of the more exciting final rounds each year on the golf calendar, Sentry Tournament of Champions odds have turned into a runaway to start the PGA Tour’s 2023.
Since the outright market isn’t worth touching, we’ll look at three other bets to consider and maintain your interest in some Sunday primetime golf.
Tournament Recap Through First Three Rounds
Despite not winning in 2022, Collin Morikawa made it to Kapalua by reaching the TOUR Championship last year … a change the PGA Tour made to ensure an elite field in one of its new elevated events. After brutally struggling with his putter to end 2022, he’s come out of the short break on complete fire, gaining six strokes to the field with the flat stick through three rounds.
That has catapulted him to a massive six-stroke lead in the Sentry Tournament of Champions over Scottie Scheffler, J.J. Spaun and Matt Fitzpatrick. Due to the easiness of Kapalua, this tournament tends to have packed leaderboards since there’s not as much being asked from a player to score well.
While six-shot leads have certainly been lost before, it’s hard to imagine how a course as easy as the Plantation Course will give much issue to Morikawa coasting home tomorrow with nothing more needed than a 69. He’s failed to score that well just twice in his last eight rounds here and is clearly feeling good with the putter. Thus, his extremely short current Sentry Tournament of Champions odds to win.
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Final Round PGA TOUR Golf Bets To Consider
Top-Five Finish: Jon Rahm
Best Odds Still Available:
This feels like a pretty forgiving line for one of the world’s best players to maintain or better his position on Sunday at Kapalua. Rahm is notoriously good at strong backdoor finishes to prop up the world ranking and keep the checks coming in. Even beyond what could be considered a narrative, Rahm is given a 61 percent chance to cement a top-five finish according to Data Golf, and you can dig deeper to see reasons why he should shoot something low tomorrow.
Outside of his surprising 71 on Friday, Rahm has been lights out at Kapalua as of late. He shot nothing worse than 66 in his runner-up last year and has added a 64 and 67 this week around that rough Friday.
With -3.2 Strokes Gained: Approach through three rounds, he’s hitting his approaches as bad as you can ever expect from him and still getting it around in a tie for fifth currently. He averaged .363 SG: Approach per round last season in one of his worst ball striking years on Tour.
Just one shot back of the guys in a tie for second, I think we can expect the Spaniard to get aggressive and make a quick move on Sunday to see if Morikawa has any nerves in securing his first win in 17 months.
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Top-10 Finish: Justin Thomas
Best Odds Still Available:
This is a nice bet to stack with Rahm’s line as we bet on two of the best players in the field to get it going on Sunday for a nice start to their 2023’s. Thomas, like Rahm, is known for getting really hot after mediocre starts to their week. Thomas has twice fired 65s on Sunday at Kapalua to storm up the leaderboard. Last year, Thomas managed 20 under on the weekend to finish in a tie for fifth after a miserable start.
This week has the potential for something similar after he fired a couple of uninspiring 70s to start the tournament and found himself near the bottom of the leaderboard.
His 67 on Saturday was a good start and one of the better rounds of the day, but even that came with exactly field average in SG: Approach – usually his strongest skillset. Thomas logged another season in the top 10 of SG: Approach in 2022, so we can expect the irons to get hot soon.
As one of the best on this course over the last seven years, I’m willing to bet Thomas can make up the three shots between him and the top 10 on Sunday with these juicy odds.
Round 4 H2H: Patrick Cantlay vs. Tony Finau
Current Odds: Cantlay -105 on DraftKings Sportsbook
This is the head-to-head matchup I like the most for Sunday. Cantlay is another player who has really started to enjoy Kapalua, but he hadn’t played much golf of late and came out of the gates slow before catching fire on Saturday with a 66.
Finau is going through a very minor swing change in his takeaway, and it seems to be enough so far to have his ball striking looking a bit off for this week. His putter has been decent enough to keep him around, but it’s clear he’s working through some things at the moment. He fell to -0.1 SG: Approach for the week after losing a full stroke on Saturday.
Cantlay also struggled with the irons in the third round, but he was first in the field in SG: Off the Tee (2.1) and SG: Around the Green (1.5). As a relatively consistent iron player who feels good with the rest of the game, I’m putting my money on Cantlay going low in the final round.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds
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