Golf Bets: Sentry Tournament of Champions PGA TOUR Betting Card

Written By John Haslbauer on January 4, 2023
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Oh, it is good to be back in the swing of things with the PGA TOUR officially returning to action after a monthlong hiatus for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. 2022 is in the rearview now, so the slate is clean for 2023 golf bets, as we strive for outright No. 1 of the new year. At The Plantation Course at Kapalua, the favorites who possess strong prior history have commonly risen to the top, with the formula calling for top-tier talents with above-average driving distance, strength around the green, and a propensity to catch a hot putter on Bermuda greens.

Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my Sentry Tournament of Champions previewClick the odds anywhere in this article to place golf bets at the best available prices in your state now. 

HOW I BUILD MY GOLF BETS, PGA TOUR CARD EACH WEEK

Every winner of the Sentry Tournament of Champions over the last 10 years has opened at 33-1 odds or shorter, so from an outright perspective, I’ve approached this week under the assumption that that trend continues, limiting my exposure to a short card of top-tier favorites.

The weather has always been the biggest wild card at this event, and while forecasts currently predict ideal, calm weather throughout tournament play, the course still sits heavily exposed to the coastline, so a proven track record on coastal layouts and an ability to flight approaches into different winds will continue to play a role in determining this week’s winner. So while I anticipate a winning score in the mid-twenties under par, I’m still looking for well rounded players with proven year-over-year results when building out my card for the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it is the same unit structure for PGA TOUR bets to kick off the new year.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

OUTRIGHT GOLF BETS: SENTRY TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS (3 UNITS)

Xander Schauffele

My Bet: +1200

Best Odds Still Available:

It was a painstaking dilemma at the beginning of the week, deciding whether to begin my card with Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, or Xander Schauffele at the same price of 12-1. Ultimately Xander felt like the safest of the three to be in contention come Sunday. Surprisingly, Xander is the most prolific winner of the group, picking up as many wins since the last Sentry Tournament of Champions (3) as Cantlay and Thomas combined. He’s been a model of consistency at Kapalua with finishes of 12th, T5, T2, and 1st over the last four years. I expect spurts of calm and windy conditions throughout the four days of this event, so his proven performances in both birdie fests and difficult conditions suggest he can handle whatever the elements throw at him this week. And casting aside the course and comp condition history, his leading form over the last 36 rounds have landed Xander in the No. 1 spot in my model this week.

NOTE: Xander Schauffele withdrew from Wednesday’s Pro-Am. He is speculated to be dealing with an injury so pending further official reporting on the severity of the injury, it may be necessary to pivot to another player.

Sungjae Im

My Bet: +2200

Best Odds Still Available:

My favorite value on the betting board this week, Sungjae continues to be priced in a second tier of the best golfers in this field, as a result of not converting his best weeks into wins. In fact, he’s only qualified for this event by way of finishing in the top-30 of the 2022 FedEx Cup, with his last win coming October 2021 at The Shriners Open. But be that as it may, the game continues to stay sharp and well-rounded in all four Strokes Gained categories. With six top-15 finishes over his last eight starts, and top-10 finishes in each of his first two appearances at this event, Sungjae looks poised to contend yet again in Maui.

SENTRY TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Sam Burns

My Bet: +2500

Best Odds Still Available:

Limited field events are not kind to the FRL market, as I typically live in the 60-1 to 100-1 range, which is effectively non-existent in a field of just 39 players. So keeping the weekly unit structure in place, that leaves room for one bullet, and with that, I’m taking my chances on Sam Burns. We know him to be a boom or bust player, and the boom potential is always ideal when considering FRL bets. Last year, Burns shot a -9, 64 on Friday, tied for the lowest of the day, so he’s already proven he has the potential to go low on this Bermuda set up.

SENTRY TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS PROPS (3.0 UNITS)

Top-10 Finish: Sungjae Im

My Bet: +130

Best Odds Still Available:

Sungjae has done nothing but finish top-10 in his career at this event, with finishes of T8 and T5 in his first two appearances. He led the field in SG: T2G in his debut here in 2021, and the repeatable formula of long irons, crafty short game, and Bermuda putting that Kapalua demands, should cater perfectly to Sungjae’s strengths.

Top-10 Finish: Collin Morikawa

My Bet: +155

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m higher on Collin Morikawa’s current form than the market is suggesting with these odds, which makes this T10 play my favorite bet of the week. Like Sungjae, Collin has proven himself incapable of finishing outside the top-10 at this event thus far, with finishes of T5, T7, and T7 in his first three appearances. Encouragingly, he’s been neutral or positive to the field in putting over all three trips to Kapalua, so this resort should be a welcomed fresh start after a woeful close to 2022 on the greens. His putting upside gives me pause that he can reach mid-twenties under par to win this event, but it’s never stopped him from finishing top-10 here before.

Top-10 Finish: Scott Stallings

My Bet: +550

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s been an eventful week for Scott Stallings after finally securing his Masters invitation, and with that relief should come a fresh outlook to forget the final few starts of his Fall Swing and get back to the level of play that earned him a top-30 rank on the 2022 FedEx Cup standings. This will be his first trip to Kapalua since 2015, but he’s been solid in his three career appearances with finishes of T14, T13, and T22. Stallings can go low in a putting contest, especially on familiar Bermuda greens for the Tennessee native. Similar to Ryan Palmer’s surprise T4 push here in 2021, Stallings is veteran who possesses the upside to pick apart this course with long drives and a streaky putter. I like the upside at long odds compared to the players around him at this price.

SENTRY TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS: THE BETTING CARD

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That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting, and see you on Sunday for the 2023 Sony Open Tournament Preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

GOLF BETS: ODDS TO WIN THE SENTRY TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS

Compare odds across sportsbooks in your state, and click any of the odds below to bet now.

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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