Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Prediction, Picks & Best Bets on Monday

Written By Nick Crain | Published at January 26, 2026

Jan 25, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) shoots and is fouled by Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) in the third quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Timberwolves will look to snap a five-game losing streak Monday night as they host the Golden State Warriors at Target Center. It's the second time in as many nights that these two squads will match up.

Golden State comes in with momentum after a blowout win in this matchup just a day ago, but my Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks point to Minnesota responding in a big way at home.

Timberwolves vs Warriors Prediction

Timberwolves vs Warriors best bet: Timberwolves -7.5 (via bet365)

This is a classic desperation and revenge spot for Minnesota.

The Timberwolves are 4-6 over their last 10 games and have dropped five straight, a skid that has put real pressure on this group to stabilize its season. The most concerning part of that stretch is that the latest loss came against this same Warriors team, a lopsided 111-85 defeat that never felt competitive. When teams see the same opponent again immediately after a loss like that, the response is usually sharp, especially when the rematch comes at home.

Minnesota has been the better team for most of the season, even more so now that Golden State is without Jimmy Butler for the remainder of the year after his ACL injury. The Wolves have more two-way talent, more physicality, and more urgency at this stage of the season. Being back at Target Center with their season wobbling, this feels like a get-right game where effort, focus, and execution are all elevated.

The Warriors catching 7.5 points might look tempting on the surface after yesterday’s result, but that blowout is part of why I like Minnesota here. That loss stung, and the Timberwolves don’t have the luxury of letting this slide turn into something bigger. They need a statement win, and this is a very real opportunity to get one against a familiar opponent.

And this is where the hidden value comes in.

Anthony Edwards is one of the best players in the league. He’s rising to yet another level this season, he’s a future face of the NBA, and he’s already proven he can drive winning at the highest level after carrying Minnesota to back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances. When a team has a true superstar like that, the floor stays high even when the results wobble for a stretch.

That’s why the recent skid feels like it’s baking a little extra value into this line. Minnesota is still a really good team, and this is still a group that should be taken very seriously. Getting only 7.5 points against a depleted Warriors roster, even after Golden State just embarrassed them, is exactly the kind of number that can look scary in the moment but ends up being the right side when the better team responds with urgency at home.

Between the desperation factor, the revenge angle, and the overall talent gap, Minnesota is in a position to control this game from the opening tip and finally stop the bleeding.

Timberwolves vs Warriors SGP

Timberwolves ML (-270)
Julius Randle over 21.5 points (-113)
Anthony Edwards over 3.5 made threes (+103)

SGP odds: +423 (via Caesars Sportsbook)

Timberwolves vs Warriors Odds

Spread: Timberwolves -7.5 | Warriors +7.5
Moneyline: Warriors +250 | Timberwolves -270
Over/Under: Over 232.5 | Under 232.5

Above Odds via BetMGM

Timberwolves vs Warriors Betting Trend to Know

Minnesota has lost five straight games and is 4-6 in its last 10, while Golden State just blew out the Timberwolves in this same matchup. The immediate rematch at home creates a strong bounce-back and urgency spot for the Wolves.