Warriors vs. Grizzlies NBA Play-In Tournament Odds: Which Team Will Lock Up Playoff Spot?

Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Published at April 15, 2025

In the meat-grinder of the Western Conference, there were always going to be a couple of strong teams that wound up in the play-in. Memphis and Golden State, despite authoring 48-win campaigns, ended up as the odd teams out. We'll look at Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds for Tuesday night's showdown.

TNT will televise the Warriors vs. Grizzlies at 10 p.m. ET.

As a reminder, the winner of the game, which takes place in San Francisco, will earn the No. 7 seed and face the Rockets. The loser drops to the No. 8 play-in, where they'll play the winner of Kings vs. Mavericks.

Warriors Vs. Grizzlies Odds For NBA Play-In

Find the best NBA odds in your state for Warriors vs. Grizzlies below.

Warriors Coming On Strong Since Trade

At first glance, this is a battle of evenly matched teams. Both teams won 48 games. In fact, Memphis has the better point differential and net rating (+5.1 to +3, per Cleaning The Glass).

However, the Jimmy Butler trade has turned the Warriors' season around. Since acquiring Butler, the Warriors have gone a scorching 23-8. Their +9.5 net rating over that time frame would rank just behind Boston for fourth in the NBA over the whole season. That's the sort of number that elite title contenders put up.

Meanwhile, things have not gone remotely well for the Grizzlies down the stretch. They sputtered to a 13-18 finish, and coach Taylor Jenkins was fired in the process.

So, these teams appear to be trending in opposite directions, which is reflected in the fact that Warriors odds vs. the Grizzlies favor them strongly.

Golden State also looks well set up to take advantage of Memphis in a few areas. The Grizzlies had a poor turnover rate on offense (24th in the NBA), and Golden State had the best defense in the NBA down the stretch. They also forced turnovers at an above-average rate and tend to play smaller, faster lineups in critical situations.

Memphis also led the NBA in pace this season. Playoff basketball revolves much more around the half-court game, though, where the Warriors are comfortable.

Can Grizzlies Run Warriors Ragged?

The Warriors may be on the ascent but aren't without weaknesses.

The collective age of their roster is probably the biggest red flag. Sure, the Warriors have some young contributors, but the team is built around Stephen Curry (36), Jimmy Butler (35), and Draymond Green (34).

If Memphis does manage to get out and run, they may be able to wear the Warriors down. Golden State wilted against a similarly young, aggressive opponent last year when the Kings routed them 118-94 in the play-in.

The Rockets opened many eyes around the league when they walked into Golden State's house and harassed Curry into the worst performance of his life on April 6. With Amen Thompson looming around every screen, Curry shot 1-for-10 and had more turnovers (four) than points (three).

Unfortunately, the Grizzlies' roster lacks a long, athletic wing in the mold of Thompson. They've been searching for such a player for years, and despite multiple rumored trades and numerous draft swings, they've yet to find one.

With home-court advantage and immense collective playoff know-how, the Warriors are the smart money to advance here.

More Warriors Vs. Grizzlies Odds: Player Props

Browse player props available at your local betting apps below. Use the pulldown menu to check different prop betting options, such as over/unders for rebounds and 3-pointers made.

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