Giants vs. 49ers TNF Preview: Best NFL Week 3 Betting Site Odds, Promos
The New York Giants (1-1) visit the San Francisco 49ers (2-0) at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 21. 49ers odds show San Francisco is a spread favorite and on the moneyline, with Giants odds at as the best price for New York to win across sports betting sites. The point total is set at . In this article, we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on Giants vs. 49ers odds.
Giants vs. 49ers Betting Odds
NFL Week 3 odds for Thursday Night Football are explained below. Know what you’re betting before you bet it. You may click any of the odds in this post to navigate to the sportsbook to place a bet.
Giants vs. 49ers Props
Giants vs. 49ers Player Props
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Giants vs. 49ers weather
Early in the week, the weather forecast for Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., calls for highs in the mid-70s with moderate winds between 9-12 mph. There’s little-to-no chance of precipitation for Thursday.
Giants vs. 49ers Injury Report
NFL teams finalize their injury reports two days before a game and denote whether a player is questionable, doubtful, or out. Practice participation is also logged throughout the week. Here is the Giants injury report and the 49ers injury report for this week.
Starters On The Injury Report
Saquon Barkley suffered an ankle injury and will miss Thursday’s game, as will starting tackle Andrew Thomas. Starting offensive linemen Ben Bredeson also appears after missing practice early in the week in concussion protocol. Pass rusher Azeez Ojulari was also limited at practice.
Brandon Ayiuk is the long 49er starter listed on the injury report this week. John Lynch states he will be a game-time decision.
Giants Offense vs. 49ers Defense
For the first six quarters of the season, nobody fielded a worse offense than the Giants. After being blanked by the Cowboys’ disruptive defense, New York turned around and failed to score a point against the woeful Cardinals’ defense, going down 20-0 at the half. Daniel Jones turned it around in the second half, scoring 24 unanswered and throwing two touchdowns.
Going into Thursday, the Giants are severely shorthanded on offense. Should Barkley not go, Matt Breida would assume the bulk of the carries. In 2022, Breida rushed for 4.1 yards per carry filling in for Barkley on more than one occasion. Through two games, the Giants have the fourth-highest rushing success rate (48.8%) thanks in part to Barkley’s 3.28 yards after contact average (t-7th most in the NFL, min. 20 carries). Last season, Breida averaged 2.89 yards after contact, 37th in the league.
44% of Jones’ attempts through two games have gone to the tight end and backs, 12th-most in the NFL. However, with athletic linebacker Fred Warner among the NFL’s best pair of safeties, the Niners match up well to remove the Giants’ favorite targets. Expect Warner to be tasked with guarding Darren Waller (12 targets, sixth-most among TEs) while the 49ers’ secondary takes care of the receivers.
Like they are with most teams, Dallas was able to generate a ton of pressure on Jones in Week 1. Through two games, New York allowed nearly a 22% pressure rate, sixth-most among teams who played two games as of Monday afternoon. Against Nick Bosa (29.7% win rate, sixth-best), Kevin Givens (22.2%, 22nd), and Javon Hargrave (21.8%, 23rd), the Giants’ offensive line is going to have their hands full.
49ers Offense vs. Giants Defense
Perhaps 2023’s offense is the best embodiment of what a Kyle Shanahan scheme looks like. Brock Purdy – seventh-round pick turned starter – has the fourth-best opponent-adjusted EPA after two games. While the cast of pass-catchers remains small, Purdy evenly distributed the ball between his top two outside options Deebo Samuel (16 targets) and Brandon Aiyuk (14 targets) while giving his non-WR options work, as well (George Kittle, nine targets; Christian McCaffrey, eight).
The Giants are all-in on playing “positionless football” under Wink Martindale. However, that’s resulted in some issues for the G-Men through two weeks, notably giving up 228 yards through the air to Josh Dobbs and an additional 106 on the ground to James Conner. On paper, that scheme works well to counter what the Niners like to do on offense. However, aside from Dexter Lawrence, the Giants lack bodies up front capable of breaking past the 49ers’ offensive line. So far, New York is 27th in rush EPA allowed while San Francisco ranks fourth in rush EPA.
This week, the Giants cannot hope to allow a 21-point third-quarter deficit to build against one of the favorites on Super Bowl odds tables.
Reasons To Bet The Over/Under
We’ve seen two different offenses for the Giants thus far – one fully incapable of advancing the ball on early downs and one that can erase a 21-point deficit in a quarter and a half. Against a much better, more disciplined, and supremely athletic defense, I’d have to bet on the Giants offense being closer to the former on Thursday. With the total above the NFL’s top key figure over the last five years (44, 4.12% of games), I’d lean on betting under the 45.5 points in this game.
San Francisco’s offense shouldn’t have much trouble scoring in this one. But when it comes to identifying plays on the under, looking for a team that projects to seriously lag in scoring is a good place to start. I anticipate the Giants will not hold up their end of the bargain, especially with Barkley trending towards being out.
Final Thoughts
Ahead of Week 1, the 49ers were -6 home favorites. That number jumped following the Giants’ 40-0 blowout loss to the Cowboys and moved further yet following the first-half struggles against the worst team in the league. Above -10, this number is tough to lay with the 49ers. The Giants’ implied team total sits at 17.5 (at +10.5, 45.5 O/U), but their offered team total is only 16.5 (Over -118).
Aggregate NFL power ratings suggest that even -10.5 isn’t a long enough line, making the 49ers -12 favorites. However, north of -10 offers several dead numbers, all of which sit between the current spread and -12. If the Niners get off to a slow start, betting a better spread than -10 in live markets may be more fruitful than the pre-game line. Otherwise, betting under 45.5 points is my favorite play in this game.
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