Three teams from the NFC East remain alive in the playoffs, with two of them squaring off Saturday. The New York Giants visit the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round. Jalen Hurts got an extra week to recover from a shoulder injury while the Giants had to stave off the Vikings to secure their spot in the second round. This is the third meeting between the division rivals this season, with Philly taking both previous games. Below, we’ll go over Giants vs. Eagles props and picks.
The Eagles are favorites at home and the game has a point total set at .
Giants vs. Eagles Props
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Prop Strategy
Pace analysis in this game is interesting. The Eagles play the fastest-paced offense in the NFL (seconds/play) in a neutral game script. When leading by 7+ points, they adjust to the slowest pace in the NFL. As over a touchdown favorite, the expectation here is that Philadelphia will lead by 7+ points at some point during, if not for most of, the game. On the other side, the Giants run a very league-median pace no matter the situation.
But as we’ve seen from these teams this season, pace doesn’t equate no points scored. The two combined for 70 in December (48 from Philly).
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Giants vs. Eagles Props To Target
AJ Brown Over Passing Yards
Best available odds: Over/Under ()
In five of his last six games, Brown’s eclipsed his current receiving prop total, the lone exception being an exactly 70-yard outing against the Giants last time. He saw at least nine targets in four of those six games, topping out at a ridiculous 16 targets against Chicago in Week 15. In that time frame (since Week 13), Philly ranked eighth in dropback EPA and seventh in overall offensive EPA.
A clearly-not 100% Hurts only connected with Brown four times on nine targets in Week 18 against the Giants– not an ideal number for going over his receiving total (though he did at 95 yards). Brown ranks second in the NFL in yards per route run, third in yards per reception (17.0), and eighth in average depth of target (aDOT, 12.9 yards). At that clip, four or five receptions should be ample to push him over 70.5 yards. The Giants allow the sixth-highest aDOT in the league (8.5).
Hurts has been given a bonus week to heal, he should be able to find Brown more regularly. Before Hurts’ injury (before Week 16), Brown pulled in 62.7% of his targets, versus just 51.9% from Week 16 on.
Saquon Barkley Over Receptions
Best available odds: Over/Under ()
In his last four games, Barkley’s averaged seven targets a game (note: he sat Week 18 against the Eagles). That’s up from 4.2 targets per game through the first 14 weeks of the season. In that four-game stretch, the Giants are 4-1 and averaging 28.3 points per game (20.4 points per game up until then). Each of those last four games were “gotta-have-it” moments, with the last being the NFC Wild Card game.
New York’s receiving situation isn’t ideal. There’s no true No. 1, with Richie James leading the way late in the year. Only five teams target the running back more than the Giants, who throw a back’s way on 22.3% of passes– designed or otherwise. Philadelphia allows above the league average in receptions by running backs (86), but a well-below average yardage total to them.
Instead of messing around with receiving yards, I’m betting on the opportunities.
Best of luck betting Giants vs. Eagles props and the rest of the NFL Playoffs.
