Georgia Election Odds: How Accurate Is Small Trump Lead In Polling vs. Harris?

While Kamala Harris brings the Democratic National Convention to a crescendo Thursday night, Donald Trump is eyeing taking back swing-state Georgia, one of the biggest factors in Joe Biden’s 2020 win. His victory in the Peach State, and Democratic victories in the Senate in 2020 and 2022, are directly responsible for much of Democrats’ legislative accomplishments. It’s also why Democrats are as puzzled and as worried about the polling. Georgia election odds represent a crucial piece in the entire Electoral College equation.

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Which party will win Georgia in the 2024 presidential election?

Party	PredictIt Price	Implied Odds
Democratic	$0.45	+122
Republican	$0.57	-133

2024 Presidential Election Odds Movement

Recent Political History Of Georgia Election Odds

Biden was a narrow favorite in the Peach State, and his victory allowed for the Democrats to organize to win the double barrel Senate runoffs in January. In 2022, the same trends that won Biden, Jon Ossoff, and Raphael Warnock the state initially stayed strong to re-elect Warnock. However, running against Herschel “China’s Sending Us Bad Air” Walker certainly helped.

Georgia flipped in 2020 because the state’s base of Black support finally had sufficient white support to get over the line. The outer Atlanta suburbs and exurbs saw dramatic swings, most notably a 14% swing in highly educated Forsyth County. That level of support with socially liberal, pro-choice, anti-Dobbs voters continued in 2022, allowing Warnock to win again as Brian Kemp romped home in the Governor’s race.

Early 2024 tea leaf reading suggests the suburban swing will continue nationally. The usually-predictive Washington Primary results saw Democrats outperform Biden’s 2020 baseline in the suburban, left-trending 8th district by 3%, a solid sign that the Global suburban trends won’t end.

And yet, Georgia polls say it is looking Trump friendly?

The Case For Republican Optimism

It’s worth noting that polling leads that are making Trump odds the favorite against Kamala Harris are still much smaller than his leads against Biden pre-dropout.

In a May New York Times/Siena poll, Trump led Biden by nine points. Now, he’s up three on Harris. Right now, Georgia is the best of the core seven swing states for Trump, and the only one where he leads Nate Silver’s polling average. It’s his best state in the polls consistently, when pollsters release surveys in batches over similar field dates.

Brian Kemp is a popular Governor who, despite Trump’s years-long record of trying to oust, is supporting the GOP ticket. The state GOP was incredibly successful, sweeping the statewide ticket of offices. Even in the Senate race, Georgia Republicans only lost by one with Walker in November – it only blew out to a three-point win because of Georgia’s runoff rule.

The other reason to think the GOP winning Georgia is real is Georgia is more pro-life than other swing states. Only 53% of Georgians thought abortion should be legal in all or most cases in the 2020 exit polling. That is lower than any of the other four states Biden flipped. In such a state, it could be that increased abortion salience has the effect of turning off some religious Black voters who have traditionally voted for Democrats.

And that’s where the real question in Georgia is.

The Case For Democratic Optimism

In 2020, Democrats won Black voters in Georgia by 84%. That NYT/Siena poll from this weekend had that gap at 68%. That gap, in a state where ~30% of the electorate is Black, is worth 5% statewide. Now, that’s not to say Kamala is currently winning the state – I don’t think if the election was today she’d win Georgia. But it’s not today.

A lot of the media commentary about the polls has conflated two points that are both true. It is true that Kamala is doing much better than Joe Biden’s polled 2024 results with Black and Hispanic voters. She is still consistently trailing Biden’s actual results from 2020 with Black voters in the polls. Plus, Georgia is the Blackest swing state in the country by a lot, so the gap between 2020 and Harris’ polls matter a lot more in ~30% Black Georgia than ~5% Black Wisconsin.

That said, Georgia Democrats have proven themselves able to get the Black vote activated and engaged. Black Georgians have gotten their party sufficient Black turnout to win four times in the last two election cycles.

There will need to be work done by the Harris campaign, but having a Black nominee who can speak to the community in a way that they’ll listen to is hugely significant.

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Georgia Election Odds Prospects

At the end of the day, for Donald Trump to win Georgia he needs one of three things to happen:

1. Black turnout to go down relative to 2020
2. A significantly greater number of Black voters have to vote for him
3. Suburban Romney-Biden voters who voted for Warnock in 2022 have to go back to Trump.

None of those seem likely. What seems much more likely is the suburban trends continue, Harris slips a little bit with Black voters but not enough, and Harris wins narrowly.

Georgia voters just rejected a pro-life election denier because he was too Trumpian. Suddenly, they’re going to elect the guy whose Supreme Court choices overturned Roe and who called the Georgia Secretary of State to find him more votes? Color me sceptical.

We are still 11 weeks out from the election, and this far out, there’s a decent chance the polls aren’t hugely reliable indicators. I’m willing to buy the non-polling fundamentals here because I’m also not buying them in Wisconsin, where the polls are much more robust for Kamala than I think is reasonable.

Georgia Democrats have earned the benefit of my doubt, and that’s why I’m backing Harris odds in the Peach State.

Thanks for reading my Georgia Election odds analysis!

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