My 2022 Genesis Invitational Betting Card, Storylines, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on February 16, 2022
Genesis betting golf odds

As the swan song of the west coast swing, the 2022 Genesis Invitational will take us out on a high note, with one of the most anticipated non-Major events of the golf season. This week is going to be a true litmus test for the best players in the world to see where their games currently stack up against one another. Riviera CC is one of the most iconic tournament courses in the United States, and we should expect it to test the field’s all-around skillsets, in extremely firm conditions.

It seemed as though 15 different players were viable to win the WM Phoenix Open last Sunday before Scottie Scheffler emerged victorious in the playoff over Patrick Cantlay. It would not surprise me to see a similar jumbled leaderboard down the stretch this week at the Genesis Invitational, with the conditions making it very difficult to string together birdies for separation.

Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 Genesis Invitational bets as well.

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MY BETTING CARD: HOW I BUILT MY GENESIS INVITATIONAL BETS

Few other courses on the PGA TOUR test your all-around skillset more than Riviera CC. If you’re elite in just one area but have deficiencies in others, this course is going to expose you over the course of four rounds. As I put together my card this week, I prioritized finding value on the elite players at the top of the board who drifted past 20-1 odds.

I look at this board and don’t see one clear-cut player who rises above the rest in terms of win equity at Riviera; the top-10 players in the world are all viable to win here, so I focused my card around getting exposure to at least two of them.

As far as unit allocations go, it’s business as usual again this week for Outrights (3U in to pay out 24U+), Props (3U in to pay out 3U each), and FRL (0.5U in to pay out 10U+).

OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Rory McIlroy

My Bet: +2500
Best Odds Still Available:

I made the decision to play Rory McIlroy heads up over Dustin Johnson or Collin Morikawa here. A quick scan across Twitter would tell you that 95% of cards are going to start with at least one of these players, as the argument can be made that they’ve each drifted to a value number for their pedigree.

McIlroy has had a resurgent 2022 season already after edging past Collin Morikawa at a loaded CJ Cup field last October. Encouragingly for Riviera, the resurgence has come from some dominant short game, and it’s scary to think that he’s picking up wins before even figuring it out with his irons yet.

Rory is the perfect fit for everything I’m looking for in a player profile this week, and it’s a bit shocking that his number has drifted back over the course of the week while showing great form and entering this event with two T5s over the last three years. He’s also looking to continue the Quail Hollow cross-over winners trend that James Hahn, JB Holmes, and Max Homa have already started.

Viktor Hovland

My Bet: +2700
Best Odds Still Available:

The rationale for Viktor Hovland is in some ways the antithesis of everything I like about Rory, but he’s on the card because the odds are simply too long for the No. 3 player in the world, who finished T5 in his first career appearance at this event last year.

With Hovland, you’re getting an elite ball striker and a player who knows how to win, with three international victories over his last six starts. He can win this event by staying neutral to the field with his short game, and that’s a ceiling I’ve come to terms with for this week.

Jordan Spieth

My Bet: +5000
Best Odds Still Available:

I am absolutely flabbergasted by this number. I was going to consider playing Jordan Spieth at 30-1 odds this week, which is where I expected him to open before odds were released on Monday. Instead, he opened at 40-1, and by Wednesday, had fallen all the way down to 50-1. Sure, he didn’t exactly wow anybody with his performance at the WM Phoenix Open to follow up his near win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but if Spieth is going to gain strokes ball striking and lose strokes with his short game, I’m going to leave that event feeling encouraged.

If the weather gets crazy or conditions firm up, it’s going to be hard for the best players OTT and APP to separate themselves. Instead, we may expect more of a short game contest to see who can get up-and-down at the highest rate. That’s how we’ve seen Patrick Reed pick up many of his TOUR victories, and there are few others in the world of golf I’d trust more to win an event with their short game alone than Spieth.

Joaquin Niemann

My Bet: +7000 (Free Bet)
Best Odds Still Available:

It is the week after the Super Bowl, and I’m sure I’m not alone in having some residual free bets hanging around my account after all the special promos that were doled out. So as a disclaimer, I added this bet as a bonus after my full 3 units were allocated, and would technically be over-exposed if not for that.

I want to have exposure to highly skilled golfers in great all-around form this week. In Niemann’s first start of the 2022 year at the Farmers Insurance Open, he gained strokes in all four SG categories, en route to a T6 finish. He was in the top-5 of the leaderboard heading into the weekend at the 2021 Genesis Invitational before the severe Saturday winds swept him out of contention. I like that he’s seen some early success on these grounds and think Riviera is a course that will suit his eye as a shot-shaper off the tee.

Paul Casey

My Bet: +7500
Best Odds Still Available:

Another absurd number on my Spotlight player of the week. I thought with his pedigree, solid history at Riviera, and good start to the year on the DP World Tour, that 50-1 odds would be fair for Casey. I can understand some drift given the number of players ahead of him in terms of OWGR ranking in this field, but he’s in a class of his own in the 75-1 odds range.

Lanto Griffin

My Bet: +11000
Best Odds Still Available:

I finished my card with Rory McIlroy 22-1 and Jordan Spieth 40-1. Then by Tuesday night both of those players drifted to longer odds on other books, so I cashed out, shifted over, and was left with just enough room on the card for one more bonus 100-1+ play.

Lanto Griffin is crushing the California swing right now, gaining across all four SG categories in each of his last three starts. He’s top-10 in SG: APP over that span, and has looked comfortable putting on Poa throughout. Not the type of pedigree of player I was chasing this week, but I love the prospects of an in-form California specialist with decent course history heading into the Genesis; that formula worked well enough for Max Homa last year.

Mito Pereira

My Bet: +22500
Best Odds Still Available:

I got nothing, guys. He’s lost strokes OTT and ARG in seven consecutive events now. He’s going to win the Honda Classic though, and may just be using this week as a tune-up, but you can absolutely bet on me backing my boy any time he pushes past 200-1 odds.

FIRST ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Cameron Tringale

My Bet: +6600
Best Odds Still Available:

Tringale rated out well for me in my model this week, but despite the recent wave of first-time winners on this west coast swing, I have no expectation that he will ever win a golf tournament. Instead, I’ll take my exposure in round one only.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +10000
Best Odds Still Available:

Keegan Bradley has reached FRL auto-bet territory whenever he touches 100-1 odds. With greens that will challenge the entire field, that should actually play to Keegan’s advantage if good putters are missing more often.

Carlos Ortiz

My Bet: +10000
Best Odds Still Available:

Fresh off an Ace in his last round, Ortiz looks to be recovered now from the shoulder injury that sidelined him in the fall-swing. He has great Genesis & Poa putting history, and can definitely put a low round together here.

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +13000
Best Odds Still Available:

Sebastian Munoz Eagled the third hole for a share of the first round lead early last week. Now that he’s tasted it, I expect him to be ready to come out and take it at the same 130-1 odds.

PROPS (3 UNITS)

The streak of betting the favorite to finish top-10 at even odds continued to pay dividends last week after Jon Rahm just barely backdoored himself to a T10 finish. With such a loaded field now, I think the T10 market becomes a bit more volatile, so this week I’m back to scouring through Matchups.

Full Tournament Matchup: Paul Casey vs. Russell Henley

My Bet: Paul Casey +106
Best Odds Still Available: +106

I’m very high on Paul Casey, while Russell Henley on a non-Bermuda course is a complete afterthought for me. Casey is ranked ahead of Henley by a fairly significant margin in terms of World Ranking, Course History, Difficult Course History, and Comp Course History. I will take the plus-odds on a player in Casey who has proven to have a much higher floor than Henley.

Top-20 Finish: Lanto Griffin

My Bet: +300
Best Odds Still Available:

A player who checks all the boxes of Course History, Course Fit, and Recent Form, despite not having the pedigree of the other elites is a rinse and repeat formula to make it onto my Top-20 card. There are better numbers out there than this, but I paid a premium to have ties paid in full at BetMGM.

Top-30 Finish: Carlos Ortiz

My Bet: +300
Best Odds Still Available:

If Carlos Ortiz is, in fact, fully healthy and doesn’t have one of the worst putting displays of his career this time around at the Genesis Invitational, then we’re going to be looking at some great value on this T30 play. There are not many above-average ball strikers who also thrive on Poa – Ortiz is one of them.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Rory McIlroy

Everything is pointing Rory McIlroy’s direction for me this week whether it be from an outright, DFS, or OAD perspective. As someone who currently holds one Masters future ticket with McIlroy’s name on it, this is the one time I most want to play Rory this season.

Short game is crucial this week and it’s clicking at the right time for him. He’s always driven the ball well at Riviera and enters with some of the best driving form of his career. I’d like to see his irons round out a bit more, but we know with Rory that will come inevitably, and on a course where good approach shots are still going to roll off of these firm and fast greens, I’m willing to look past some average iron play this one week.

If not Rory, this also stacks up to be a sensible use of Dustin Johnson or Patrick Cantlay in OAD.

FINAL BETTING CARD

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CLOSING THOUGHTS AND STORYLINES

It’s going to be a wild ride this week at the Genesis Invitational. All of the game’s best will be jockeying for position on one of the most difficult tests a golf course can offer. I’m optimistic about Rory McIlroy’s chances at this golf course, but will be happy if I have one or two horses in the race come Sunday.

My expectation is that we’ll see a winner this week who is trending with good all around recent form on the west coast swing, not someone who just has good course history, or is due to find some form.

Here’s a look at a few last storylines I’m looking out for at the 2022 Genesis Invitational.

First Time Winners

For three consecutive weeks now, we’ve watched Scottie Scheffler, Tom Hoge, and Luke List pick up their first career TOUR victories. The “win equity” narrative is slowly dying, and Will Zalatoris and Matt Fitzpatrick are prime candidates to continue the trend this week at relatively short odds. I’m of the opinion that trends only happen in threes however, so not banking on seeing another first time winner this week.

Major Preview

Before odds were released this week, I was referencing the PGA Championship Future odds market to get a sense of where players would open, given the field will be virtually the same. I’ll be monitoring the Futures market closely this week to potentially jump on players who look good at Riviera if there is value to be had on Futures.

Tiger Woods

We are one year removed from Tiger Woods’s car accident following the conclusion of the 2021 Genesis Invitational. A year later, we still haven’t gotten any answers about what happened that day, and wouldn’t expect him to disclose anything new at this point. Since he’s hosting the event, however, we should get another interview out of him which will hopefully allude to what his playing schedule may look like in 2022. I still think the first time we could conceivably see him in action will be the The Open at St. Andrews in July, but time will tell.

Good luck with your 2022 Genesis Invitational bets!

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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