For the second week in a row, we’re spoiled with an elevated event featuring all of the best players on the PGA TOUR in one place, this time also including Tiger Woods! With a difficult all-around test in store at Riviera Country Club, the 2023 Genesis Invitational serves as the perfect pre-cursor to Major Season, and potentially a good starting point to fire off some Masters, PGA Championship, or U.S. Open future bets, alongside Genesis Invitational bets.
At Riviera Country Club, the cream tends to rise to the top, as the course is suitable to creative shot makers who can work the ball in both directions when teeing off into these tight doglegs. With nuanced bunkering and unpredictable lies in surrounding Kikuyu rough, Riviera presents a unique test to players’ short game as well, so it’s a week I’m looking for players with a combination of strong tee-to-green form and proven results at this event in the past.
Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my Genesis Invitational preview. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place Genesis Invitational bets.
HOW I BUILT MY GENESIS INVITATIONAL BETTING CARD
Last week, I gave Scottie Scheffler a long look after the defending champion’s odds fell to a second tier of the odds board behind Rahm and McIlroy. This week, despite event history showing a consistent trend of winners in the 25-1 range or longer, I’ve opted for a shorter card with exposure to one of the elites. Consistent contention in Majors should go a long way come Sunday in separating from the field in this loaded, elevated event.
In terms of unit allocations for my betting card this week, it’s back to business as usual for the Genesis Invitational.
- Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
- FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each
Click on any of the odds below for Genesis Invitational bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.
GENESIS INVITATIONAL BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Rory McIlroy
My Bet: +1100
Best Odds Still Available:
I was all in on Rory McIlroy at 25-1 odds this time last year. Since then, he’s piled up four wins worldwide and reclaimed his position as a consensus co-favorite in any event he shows up at. Whether it’s the Augusta, Quail Hollow, or other Difficult Major-like comp narratives you’re looking for, Rory passes the eye test in all of them, ranking No. 1 in Comp Course History, and Bogey Avoidance in difficult conditions.
The combination of Scheffler winning, Rahm contending, and Rory placing just outside the top-30 at last week’s WM Phoenix Open was the perfect recipe for McIlroy’s odds to slip into this double digit range. I’m not going to over-react to Rory’s performance at an event he’s always opted to skip, especially considering he gained 6 strokes tee-to-green in a “bad” showing. With three top-10 finishes over his last four appearances at the Genesis Invitational, I believe Rory is the man to beat this week at Riviera.
Hideki Matsuyama
My Bet: +4500
Best Odds Still Available:
My spotlight player of the week, Matsuyama continues to be the value bet we can count on, consistently slipping down the odds board despite his current form and long term pedigree as a grinder in Majors and other difficult set ups.
When it comes to Matsuyama, I’m always going to monitor his health before placing a bet on him, but he’s looked himself recently, coming off of T9 and T29 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and WM Phoenix Open. Matsuyama has quietly avoided missing a cut since the Scottish Open back in July, and perhaps most encouragingly, has gained strokes putting in all but one event since. He now returns to Riviera Country Club, where he’s enjoyed plenty of success with four top-11 finishes over his last seven trips.
Adam Scott
My Bet: +6600
Best Odds Still Available:
With Dustin Johnson, Cam Smith, Bubba Watson, and Joaquin Niemann absent and the Genesis Invitational now elevated to a deeper field than ever before, Scott benefits two-fold as his odds have slipped even further down the board despite having the best course history of anyone in this 2023 field. Scott is a two-time winner of this event, most recently in 2020, and has been outspoken about these firm and fast Poa greens reminding him of more familiar conditions back home in Australia. In that case, we should feel encouraged by his T2 at the Australian Open this past December.
Scott remains a model of consistency, having avoided missing the cut since the PGA Championship last May. Twice a top-5 finisher in the FedEx Cup Playoffs last season, he’s proven he can contend against the strongest of fields.
Francesco Molinari
My Bet: +28000
Best Odds Still Available:
Molinari is not a player who popped in my model, and is not somebody I’m staking my hard earned money behind, however I did have some residual free bets in my account from the Super Bowl, so I’m going to roll the dice on a narrative play here. Riviera CC is an exclusive club, and Molinari is one of very few to hold membership after settling down in Los Angeles in 2020. Since becoming a member here, the former Open Champion has finished T8 and T55. He ranks top-10 in the field in terms of SG: Short Game at Riviera, a testament to his familiarity with these grounds, so if conditions get difficult, I like that we can lean on Molinari in a scrambling contest.
GENESIS INVITATIONAL FIRST ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)
Cameron Young
My Bet: +4500
Best Odds Still Available:
Cameron Young is the type of player who will let you know immediately on Thursday if he is going to contend or simply not have his best stuff. He was a fade for me last week, coming off a long flight from Saudi Arabia in back-to-back weeks. The last time Young didn’t look quite himself after a long travel week was the Genesis Scottish Open, and in his first round the following week, he went on to be First Round Leader at The Open. I’ll chase a similar script this week on a course that suits Young’s game perfectly.
Alex Noren
My Bet: +8000
Best Odds Still Available:
You wouldn’t know it judging by his PGA TOUR results alone, but Noren is in excellent form leading into this week with four top-5 finishes over his last eight starts, three of which coming on the DP World Tour. One of the best putters in this field, Noren can go low with the flat stick alone, and carries great prior history at Riviera, twice a top-20 finisher.
Patrick Rodgers
My Bet: +9000
Best Odds Still Available:
Patrick Rodgers is always a FRL consideration, as he has all the raw skills to go low one round at a time, but has struggled to piece everything together over a full tournament. The Genesis Invitational may just be the best course fit for his game however, as he’s finished top-30 in five of the last six years. Hot off a T14 at the WM Phoenix Open, he’s poised for good week in California yet again.
Adrian Meronk
My Bet: +10000
Best Odds Still Available:
Adrian Meronk will either play great or terrible this week, and I don’t see a middle ground. He’s emerged as one of the hottest players on the DP World Tour with a win and four top-10 finishes over his last six starts. That’s still yet to translate on the PGA TOUR; however, as he’s never finished inside the top-40 stateside. With so much uncertainty, he’s a perfect FRL bullet, but nothing more than that for me this week.
Danny Lee
My Bet: +20000
Best Odds Still Available:
We are monitoring Danny Lee’s prospects as a potential stand in for Sebastian Munoz on the weekly FRL card. He is volatile like no other, but is liable for a spike round on seemingly any PGA TOUR course. He’s trending with his irons and putter, gaining in both categories in each of his last four starts, which is a perfect recipe to chase the first round lead.
GENESIS INVITATIONAL PROPS (3.0 UNITS)
Top-40 Finish: Shane Lowry
My Bet: +175
Best Odds Still Available:
I understand Lowry has hit a bit of a wall in recent events, and that this is a loaded field, but a player of his caliber simply should not have longer odds in the top-40 market than players like Denny McCarthy, Nick Taylor, or Jhonattan Vegas. Short Game is Lowry’s strength, especially in more difficult conditions, so if the field at large is missing fairways and greens at a high clip, Lowry can scramble his way to a top-40 finish without his best stuff ball striking wise.
Top-20 Finish: Adam Scott
My Bet: +250
Best Odds Still Available:
Adam Scott has not missed a cut since May 2022 and has finished outside the top-30 just once over his last nine starts. I believe a win is coming soon for the Australian, and there is no other course on the PGA TOUR that lines up better for his game than Riviera CC. The +250 top-20 odds are my favorite prop value of the week.
Top-40 Finish: Francesco Molinari
My Bet: +400
Best Odds Still Available:
Maybe Molinari is a little more than just a narrative play. These greens are as tricky as they come, and nobody knows them better than Francesco Molinari, which should be a huge edge for him as he continues to search for his pre-COVID form. A T5 on the DP World Tour three starts ago is an encouraging sign of better days to come for the Italian.
Top-20 Finish: Sam Ryder
My Bet: +600
Best Odds Still Available:
To round out the placement card, Sam Ryder was my favorite value at 6-1 or longer placement odds. He’s clearly found something in his game recently, finishing T4 and T20 over his last two starts. Combine that with a T26 showing at this event last year, and he should enter this week feeling confident in his game, regardless of how strong the field may be.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Max Homa
Elevated events should be reserved for elite players only from an OAD perspective, and they’re especially the type of events I want exposure to elites who lack a proven history in Majors. That was my philosophy in picking Patrick Cantlay in one of my OAD pools last week, and while that did not work out at all, I’m going back to the same thought process with Homa. We know by now to trust Homa on California Poa greens, and aside from the U.S. Open at LACC, this will be the last opportunity to back the 2021 Genesis Invitational champion in these conditions.
If not Homa, I would also consider Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, or Adam Scott as OAD picks.
GENESIS INVITATIONAL: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s Genesis Invitational bets. Best of luck this week with your own Genesis Invitational bets, and see you on Sunday for the 2023 Honda Classic Preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
GENESIS INVITATIONAL BETS: ODDS TO WIN
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