Throughout the MLB season, I’ll dabble in game-by-game betting breakdowns. Let’s dig into the MLB odds that showcase value for the first of the Orioles-Red Sox’s three-game series. You can find the rest of Friday’s odds here.
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MLB Odds: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Although Kyle Bradish, the Orioles’ ninth-rated prospect, represents an unknown variable in his major league debut, the more intriguing matchup advantage come with Baltimore’s lineup against Bradish’s counterpart Rich Hill.
Brandon Hyde’s club is off to a bit of a slow start against southpaws in the 2022 campaign, yet the O’s did their fair share of damage last season — tied for the league’s 10th-highest wRC+ with majority of the same bats.
Enter Rich Hill, whose tallied the 19th-highest FIP (5.60) among all starting pitchers. While that metric doesn’t guarantee a lack of success in his ensuing start, it’s nearly a point higher than his ERA (4.85), proving that his results aren’t likely to flip in the other direction in an opener role.
However, Hill relies on his four-seam fastball (47.2%) and curveball (37.7%), and the Orioles’ offense has delivered a below-average efficiency versus both pitch types (via FanGraphs’ pitch value). But as previously stated, this game is a potential buy-low opportunity for Austin Hays & Co. to rekindle their 2021 form — if they can jump on Hill early.
After the 42-year-old departs, Tanner Houk will reportedly take the mound. The righty has seen his velocity rise from his rookie campaign, yet his strikeout rate (21.0%) isn’t as formidable.
Despite Baltimore’s bullpen and defensive concerns, Boston is still slightly overvalued in the betting market after last season’s ALCS appearance. I can’t think of anything more exciting than plugging your nose with the O’s on a Friday night.
Best Available Line: Orioles ML
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