French Open Odds: Breaking Down A Wide Open Men’s Field

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Written By Alex Jacob | Last Updated
French Open odds

For nearly two decades, one name has dominated the conversation on French Open men’s odds: Rafael Nadal. But with a hip injury keeping the 14-time champion out this year, the tournament is wide open in a way it hasn’t been in quite awhile. Let’s take a look at some of the players who have the best chance of taking advantage of the King of Clay’s absence at Roland Garros this year.

Click the odds below to make a wager on French Open odds at legal sports betting sites.

French Open Odds: The Favorite

Carlos Alcaraz

The Spanish sensation comes in as the betting favorite, and it’s easy to see why. He has an impressive 20-2 record on clay this year, winning events in Barcelona and Madrid. At just 20 years old, he already has a Grand Slam title under his belt, so that pressure is gone (though he may face a different kind of pressure being the top seed in a major for the first time).

Yes, his last loss was probably the biggest upset of the year, a shocking second-round exit in Rome at the hands of qualifier Fabian Marozsan. But, I don’t think we should overreact to that result. The young Hungarian put together an absolutely brilliant match and probably could have beaten many of the top players on that day.

Unfortunately for Alcaraz, he will have a rather tough road at Roland Garros this year. No. 3 seed Novak Djokovic landed in his half of the draw, so the two will potentially have to play each other before reaching the finals. Alcaraz may also have to face fifth-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals. Carlos did win the last major he played (the 2022 U.S. Open), but he only had to defeat one top-10 seed (No. 5 Casper Ruud) en route to that title.

I do think Alcaraz is one of the few players with a good chance to win the tournament, but I’m just not a buyer at this price.

French Open Odds: The Contenders

Novak Djokovic

Given his years of experience over the other top contenders and long track record of success, there’s an argument to be made that Djokovic should be considered the favorite here.

The market may be pricing in some concerns about his elbow, which he wore strapping on at Monte Carlo and Banja Luka before the issue forced him to withdraw from the Madrid Masters in April. However, Djokovic said he felt good before the Rome Masters earlier this month, and he played that tournament without any elbow support.

Injury or not, his 5-3 record this clay court season — which includes losses to 21st-ranked Lorenzo Musetti and 70th-ranked Dusan Lajovic — has been underwhelming to say the least. There’s reason to question whether his elbow will hold up, and whether the same Djokovic who won the Australian Open earlier this year will show up at Roland Garros.

Then again, the 22-time Slam winner will surely be hungry for a record-breaking 23rd. Historically, the guy just seems to find a way to peak at the majors. In the end, I think that getting better than +200 on Djokovic without Federer or Nadal in the field is simply too good to pass up.

Holger Rune

Holger Rune may be one of the most talented players on tour. On a good day, he can beat anyone. In fact, he had an amazing seven straight wins against top-five opponents before his recent loss to Daniil Medvedev in the finals at Rome.

But, the way that match played out raised some concerns about Rune’s fitness and ability to go the distance in a best-of-five-sets event. After losing the first set, Rune, who has suffered from cramps in the past, tried to match Medvedev’s patient, grind-it-out style.

The only problem was, this led to a series of extremely long rallies. Rune could not keep up with Medvedev’s incredible cardio. As Rune began to gas out, his shot selection began to suffer. He tried to force winners at inopportune times in an attempt to shorten points. By the end, it became clear Rune was physically spent. And that match was only two sets.

I have no doubt that Holger Rune will be a Grand Slam champion someday. But I’m not sure he’s ready to win one just yet.

Daniil Medvedev

A casual tennis fan might be surprised to see Medvedev’s name in the “Contenders” section. Medvedev? On clay?

Yes, from 2020-2022, Daniil Medvedev was mediocre at best on the dirt surface. And he has certainly not been shy about his distaste for playing on clay. But, after winning the first clay title of his career at Rome earlier this month, Medvedev is a new man.

What’s changed? For one thing, I think the consensus is that his attitude towards the surface has improved. The level of his play has been lifted as a result.

But Medvedev credits another factor as well: “the new strings I tried this year, because they are just softer, so the ball goes easier.” Heavy groundstrokes are not the hallmark of Medvedev’s game. That lack of power has made it difficult to generate offense on the slow clay surface. The equipment change may just have shored up one of Medvedev’s main weaknesses on clay.

The truth is, a top-five player being completely hopeless on clay is sort of a thing of the past — there’s just not as big a difference between the way the game is played on each surface these days. So I’m partly seeing his recent results as an inevitable regression to the mean for Medvedev. He’s too mentally tough, too consistent, too precise, simply too good a player to forever remain a non-factor on clay.

One could get Medvedev at +1500 earlier this week and I’ve watched his odds continue to get shorter. He’s still my favorite bet on the board.

French Open Odds: Longshot To Consider

Jannik Sinner

Sinner’s recent results mostly don’t suggest that he’s about to win the French Open. He’s never gotten past the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam, so nerves could become an issue. He also seemingly had a somewhat disappointing clay court season in 2023, his best result a loss to Holger Rune in the semis at Monte Carlo.

However, he did get wins over Alcaraz and Tsitsipas on the hard courts this year. And despite his mediocre win-loss record, some advanced stats encourage for Sinner. On clay this year, he led all top players in service points won plus return points won at 111% (even ahead of Alcaraz, at 109%). He also led in break percentage, being the only player to break his opponent in more than 40% of his return games.

The market was more bullish on Sinner earlier this month, pricing him at +700 to win the Rome Masters (a very similar surface to the French, with all the same players). Now, we’re getting him at a relative discount. As a numbers guy at heart, I can’t help but feel like Sinner has value at his current price.

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