Premier League football returns to action this weekend after the second International Break of the season. The top of the table is well-poised, with Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City emerging as the main title contenders early on in the campaign. EPL picks utilizing Expected Goals this week will include one of those clubs.
In the three installments of this column so far, we’ve managed to turn a profit of +19.01 units. Seven of my eleven recommended bets have come in – not bad considering the strategy is to mainly back underdogs xG points to as undervalued in the eyes of the bookmakers.
I have bet one unit on each of the following matches.
Aston Villa vs. Wolves Odds
Saturday, October 16, 10:00a ET
Wolves have perhaps been the unluckiest team in the Premier League so far this season. Their matches earlier on in the campaign against Leicester and Manchester United stand out as particular examples whereby they deserved at least a point from the game.
Indeed, Wolves have scored just 5 goals from 10.70 xG so far. In other words, they should have scored more than double the amount they have, given the chances they’ve created for themselves.
However, their form does seem to be turning and they’ve now won three of their last four games.
This weekend, they face an Aston Villa side who have also looked decent at the start of this season, but Wolves appear to be massively undervalued at just 27.8%. As such, I’ll be staking one unit on the visitors in this Midlands derby.
Best Wolverhampton Odds In Your State
Leicester City vs. Manchester United Odds
Saturday, October 16, 10:00a ET
In the last two weeks, I recommended betting against Man Utd. This paid off against Aston Villa and then nearly came off again when they faced Everton in their last match.
However, this week we find them underpriced at just 46.7% against a Leicester team who have been woeful at the beginning of this campaign.
The Foxes have won just one match on xG so far this season – that came against Burnley a couple of weeks ago. Brendan Rodgers’ team have looked a shadow of their former selves so far, and I think the bookies are overestimating their chances against the Red Devils.
In a reversal of our previous weeks’ recommendations, I’ll be staking one unit on a Man Utd victory.
Best Man Utd Odds In Your State
Newcastle United vs. Tottenham Hotspur Odds
Sunday, October 17, 11:30a ET
Tottenham make the long trip up north to face a club that has just been subject to one of the most significant takeovers of modern football history. Much has been written over the wealth of Newcastle’s new owners – the buzz around the club might give them with some inspiration on the pitch this weekend.
I’ll be staking one unit on Newcastle at the price of 27.8%. It’s true that they’ve started the season poorly, conceding the most xG in the league so far. However, Tottenham are still overpriced for this fixture. In terms of Expected Goals, Spurs have created just 7.05 (fourth lowest) and conceded 12.65 (4th highest).
Hopefully the morale boost that Newcastle have experienced over the last few days can carry them over the line for this week’s EPL picks.
Best Newcastle Odds In Your State
Watford vs. Liverpool Odds
Saturday, October 16, 7:30a ET
As mentioned earlier, I tend to find value in EPL picks by identifying underdogs who the bookies appear to undervalue. However, I’m willing to buck this trend and stake one unit on heavy favorites Liverpool to defeat Watford.
The Reds have been rampant this season, accumulating 18.50(xG) so far – that’s the most of any team and 3.20(xG) greater than even Man City have managed to create.
They face a Watford side who have just appointed Claudio Ranieri as manager. The Hornets have struggled at both ends of the pitch this season, and I expect them to be blown away by Liverpool, who are priced at 72.5%.