France Vs. Morocco: 2022 World Cup Semifinal Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on December 12, 2022
France Morocco odds

The 2022 World Cup has advanced to the semifinals, where Morocco continues their miracle run and are up against title favorites France. With their victory over England, and Morocco taking out their expected semifinal opponents Portugal, France’s 2022 World Cup odds have shortened significantly. That said, underestimating Morocco has led to Belgium, Spain and Portugal crashing out, so there’s no time like now to examine France vs. Morocco odds. This game will be played Wednesday, Dec. 14 at 2 p.m. EST, on FOX and Telemundo.

France Vs. Morocco Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Knockout Rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If tied after that but a team wins in extra time or penalty kicks, soccer’s version of overtime, all three-way moneyline bets are still graded as a draw. If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out no matter when the win comes, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

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France Team Preview

Whether France truly deserved to get the better of England will be argued in the build-up to Wednesday. Although whether Didier Deschamps’ men do carry that argument is now largely immaterial. 

If only because it is Les Blues and not the Three Lions who have reached a second successive World Cup semifinal, and now this French side will look to become the first nation to retain the trophy since Brazil won back-to-back tournaments in 1962.

Even though France will be heavy favorites to advance to Sunday’s final, it would be remiss for any of their players to simply overlook the threat of Morocco. Especially as the North Africans have already disposed of two European powerhouses previously.

Of course, France disposed of a European powerhouse themselves. Although England certainly had them on the ropes at times, Gareth Southgate’s young lions failed to land the crucial knockout blow.

Ultimately it was a French display that highlighted exactly why they are champions and more importantly, what champions do when it matters most. You do not have to be at your best for 90 minutes, you just have to win when the 90 minutes expire.

That was certainly the case against their English counterparts. Although they rode their luck at times, their luck came good in the end. Now they must make sure good fortune does not fail them against Morocco.

Morocco Team Preview

Those who moaned about drawing Morocco in the World Cup office sweepstakes are probably not complaining anymore. With the Atlas Lions now potentially 90 minutes from reaching the final, those same people will now will this team to go all the way.

Something that looked unlikely when they were paired against Spain in the round of 16. However, Walid Regragui’s men withstood everything that La Rioja threw their way. They would eventually progress after winning on penalties.

A continued run looked similarly unlikely when paired against Portugal in the quarterfinal. With a subplot of Cristiano Ronaldo’s evolving role brewing, his lack of starting berth would do nothing in terms of distracting the Moroccans.

A sensational win followed on Saturday, as their robust defense was once again called into action. A defense that has yet to concede a goal from an opposition player in 480 minutes of tournament football in Qatar.

Only an own-goal that benefitted Canada in the final round of group-stage matches has breached Morocco’s net. If they can display the same level of solidity on Wednesday, the greatest World Cup shock could soon lie in wait.

This current crop of Morocco stars has already made history in being the first African nation to reach a World Cup semifinal. Now they look to join soccer’s immortals by being the first team from the continent to reach the game’s showpiece event.

World Cup Knockout Rounds Bracket

world cup bracket

France Vs. Morocco Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team to use when handicapping World Cup odds.

Morocco continues to outperform their expected goals metrics, while France is dominant by both traditional and expected metrics.

TeamGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferenceWorld Cup xGWorld Cup xGAWorld Cup xGD
France115+69.826.45+3.37
Morocco51+43.485.48-2

Matchup History

In terms of the history between France and Morocco, it is fair to say that one nation has had the lion’s share of previous success. Of the previous 11 meetings, Les Blues have won seven.

Of the remaining four fixtures, three have finished in a tie and there has only been one win for the Atlas Lions. Even their success in 1963 was nothing more than Morocco’s first team going up against France’s second. 

However, all these previous 11 meetings have never been within the confines of a World Cup environment. Although the current champions have the weight of history behind them, this year’s edition of the tournament has not been short of chaos.

France Vs. Morocco Odds: Bets To Consider

Morocco to advance:

Morocco has certainly reached this year’s World Cup semifinal on merit. Although they have had to batten down the hatches against Spain and Portugal, they have been more than equal to the attacking threat of either.

Carry out the same game plan against France on Wednesday and the World Cup final lies in wait. Can they execute such orders from the Morocco management team? There is no reason to suggest they cannot.

This is why I am backing Morocco to do the unthinkable and add France to their list of heavyweight knockouts. Admittedly, I did toy with backing them to win in 90 minutes at . But, I am just going to dial things down slightly.

This means by taking the “To Advance” route, I may be chopping my plus odds in more than half. But, I am also purchasing the insurance policy of both an extra time or penalties victory instead.

Something that could be worth every cent in the end. Morocco does not need to win in 90 minutes, they do not even need to win in 120. As long as they win the shootout, then another round of World Cup winnings heads my way.

Tie or Morocco and under 2.5 goals: +200

I have set my stall out and declared that Morocco will shock the world. Now, I am also going to build on this bet by backing them in the double-chance market. This means I get both the tie and an Atlas Lions win in 90 minutes.

Although backing that outcome on its own would offer +140, I will also make a case for Morocco’s defense and add under 2.5 total goals to the equation. In doing so, the payout boosts up to +200.

This means a 0-0 or 1-1 tie would be enough to declare this bet a winner. Should that be the case, I am then 30 additional minutes or a shootout away from also ticking off the +300 bet above.

Of course, a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Morocco would be just as viable in terms of a winning combination of regulation time factors. However, backing an outright victory against the French may be considered a step too far. 

If we consider how disciplined Walid Regragui’s team has been up until now, it would make no sense for him to remove the shackles before Wednesday. If they are to advance, then discipline is going to be the key once more.

World Cup Sports Betting Promos

There are several World Cup promos to take advantage of before betting France vs. Morocco odds. Lock in the offers here:

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