PGA TOUR Odds: Fortinet Championship, Silverado Resort & Spa Preview

Written By John Haslbauer on September 12, 2022
fortinet championship odds

And just like that, PGA TOUR betting is back with Fortinet Championship odds! The shortest offseason in sports has officially come to a close, and after filling the void by staving off LIV bots on Twitter, I couldn’t be happier to see some full-field professional golf once again in Napa Valley as we kick off the 2022-23 season. For me, two weeks away from covering the PGA TOUR felt like an eternity, but it’s been nice to take a step back and recharge. For the players in this week’s field, I’m sure it’s felt even longer, as a majority of this field has not played a PGA TOUR event since before the FedEx Cup Playoffs began in early August.

As the official kick off of the new 2022-23 season, the greatest appeal of the Fortinet Championship is getting to size up the new Korn Ferry Tour rookie class. Last year, this was nearly the coming out party for Mito Pereira in his rookie season debut before coasting on Sunday to a T3 finish. This year, players like Carl Yuan, Justin Suh, and Taylor Montgomery highlight a list of new players looking to make a splash.

Last year, the season kicked off the week prior to the Ryder Cup, which fueled speculation behind which players were using the event as a tune-up to kick off the rust, while others on the wrong side of the bubble may have used as motivation to prove their captains wrong. We’ll get a similar script in 2023 with the Presidents Cup to follow next week, and may see players like Mackenzie Hughes and Sahith Theegala play with a little more to prove than their other counterparts in this field.

There are many avenues to attack this course, but a consistent throughline of strong wedge play inside 150 yards, Par-5 scoring, and comfortability putting on California Poa greens has proven a consistent formula over the years. Now let’s get into the key facts and info about Silverado Resort & Spa for the 2023 Fortinet Championship.

FORTINET CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: The Favorites

To compare golf betting outright odds in legal sports betting states, as well as other Fortinet Championship offerings, scroll to the bottom of this post.

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
M. Homa
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+1000
H. Matsuyama
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+1600
C. Conners
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+1600
M. McNealy
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+2200
C. Davis
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+2200
S. Theegala
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+2800
T. Pendrith
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+3000

FORTINET CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE

For the first time in over a month, we’ll see a full field of 156 players teeing it up in Napa. As the first event after a very short offseason, it’s rare to find many players who lasted throughout the FedEx Cup Playoffs elect to play in the season’s first event, which produces an appealing odds board of viable outright options.

Max Homa is your defending champion at this event, who chased down Maverick McNealy in 2021 to clear by one stroke. He’ll open as favorite this week alongside Hideki Matsuyama and Corey Conners, who represent the only players in this field inside the OWGR top-40. Those three will also be joined by Taylor Pendrith and Cam Davis as members of the Presidents Cup team, who will head to Quail Hollow immediately following this event. It will be interesting to track their motivations for this week, as this sets up to be a quintessential tune-up spot for these five favorites.

Past winners at Silverado Resort & Spa in this field include Max Homa, Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, Brendan Steele (2x), and Emiliano Grillo.

INTRODUCTION TO SILVERADO RESORT & SPA

Silverado Resort & Spa will host this PGA TOUR event for the 16th consecutive year since its inception on the schedule in 2007. The event switched title sponsors last year after previously being known as the Safeway Open.

The list of players atop the course history ranks – which includes the likes of Chez Reavie, Hideki Matsuyama, Brendan Steele, Stewart Cink, and Emiliano Grillo – would suggest this is an opportunity for “Team No-Putt” players can hang around on relatively straightforward greens complexes.

In short, players with plus-distance or elite driving accuracy who capitalize on par-5 scoring and have familiarity on West Coast Poa greens seem to find themselves towards the top of the leaderboard at this event each year.

How It Breaks Down

As a 7,123-yard par-72 with four reachable par-5s, Silverado Resort & Spa plays as one of the shorter courses on the PGA TOUR rotation. With narrow fairways, it was designed to be a positional course that rewards accuracy, however the absence of penal rough has instead ushered in a Bomb & Gauge approach from longer hitters, and effectively removed an advantage from SG: OTT, instead boiling down to a second shot course.

Just one par-4 measures over 450 yards here, placing a particular emphasis on wedge play from inside 150 yards with a concentration of six holes between 400-450 yards. The par-3’s offer the greatest defense at Silverado, each measuring over 180 yards. Three of the four par-3’s rank inside the top-4 in scoring difficulty relative to par. On the flipside, there will be ample birdie opportunities on the four reachable par-5s and three par-4s measuring under 400 yards, placing a considerable emphasis on Birdies or Better Gained.

Traits And Recent Notable Facts

Silverado Resort & Spa features the second narrowest fairways on TOUR behind only East Lake, which typically spells a formula for accurate plodders to find success, especially on a course which measures under 7,200 yards. However, with short and straightforward rough surrounding these fairways, Silverado ranks bottom-5 on TOUR in terms of missed fairway penalty.

That nuance has opened the door more recently for a new style of attack, as speed-chasers like Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, and Max Homa have each taken a game plan of swinging freely off the tee to generate as many wedge approaches as possible, en route to their victories each of the last three years. Even still, plodders like Chez Reavie, Ryan Moore, and Kevin Streelman have also found consistent success here, and there is still an advantage to be had if you can consistently play from the fairway to control spin on shorter approaches.

SILVERADO RESORT & SPA COURSE SPECS

  • Yards: 7,123
  • Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
  • Greens: Poa + Bent blend
  • Architect: Robert Trent Jones & Johnny Miller
  • Comp Courses: TPC Twin Cities, Riviera CC, Detroit GC, Waialae CC, Harbour Town, Pebble Beach, Port Royal GC
  • Historical Cutline: -2
  • Median Four-Round Score: -8 (’22), -12 (’21), -7 (’20), -6 (’19), -5 (’18)
  • Past Winners: Max Homa -19 (’22), Stewart Cink -21 (’21), Cameron Champ -17 (20), Kevin Tway -14 (’19), Brendan Steele -15 (’18)
  • Hole-by-hole Breakdown:
Silverado Resort & Spa (7,123 Yards)

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

Two-time winner of this event, Brendan Steele, is No. 1 in the field this week in terms of SG: TOT Silverado Resort & Spa. He’s followed by Hideki Matsuyama, Chez Reavie, Ryan Moore, Emiliano Grillo, Stewart Cink, Harry Higgs, Brandt Snedeker, Bill Haas, and Cameron Percy to round out the top-10 in Course History.

Nine players have avoided missing the cut at this event with a minimum of three appearances over the last five years: Chez Reavie, Brendan Steele, Patrick Rodgers, Nick Taylor, Cameron Percy, Andrew Putnam, Max Homa, Michael Thompson, and Michael Gligic.

Ten players in this week’s field have recorded multiple top-20 finishes over the last five years here: Reavie, Nick Taylor, Thompson, Kevin Streelman, Chesson Hadley, Brandt Snedeker, Ryan Moore, Brian Stuard, Bill Haas, and Troy Merritt.

Course Comps

There are not many short and tight golf courses on the PGA TOUR which still reward distance and deprioritize the importance of the first tee shot. TPC Twin Cities, however, stands out as the best example of a course which caters to longer birdie-makers, and levels the playing field for the weaker putters in the field. Cameron Champ has won both events with a similar game plan, and Tony Finau has found routine success at both courses through his career, ranking top-5 in total strokes gained at each course.

After TPC Twin Cities, I’m also looking at shorter courses susceptible to the Bomb & Gauge approach, such as Detroit GC and Port Royal GC. Riviera CC and Pebble Beach GC have produced similar overlapping leaderboards from players like Max Homa, Chez Reavie, and Maverick McNealy, and Kevin Streelman, each featuring similar California Poa greens.

And on a more tertiary level, Waialae CC and Harbour Town are interesting reference points worth a look, with each measuring under 7,200 yards and producing sticky course history from players like Brendan Steele, Hideki Matsuyama, Stewart Cink, and Emiliano Grillo.

Combine performance across this list and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Max Homa, Cam Davis, Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Streelman, Maverick McNealy, Troy Merritt, Corey Conners, Chris Kirk, Gary Woodland, and Adam Svensson.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER

  • SG: APP
  • SG: ARG / Scrambling Gained
  • Par 5 Scoring / P5: 550-600
  • Prox: 75-150
  • Driving Distance
  • P4: 400-450
  • Birdies or Better Gained
  • SG: Putting (L36, Poa)
  • Course + Comp Course History

While SG: OTT has very little bearing on determining a winner at this event, players on the extreme ends of the Accuracy-Distance spectrum have found success on this course. With that said, it still boils down to a second-shot course, so with just under 50% of approaches funneling from inside 150-yards, it’s a week to go big on top wedge players. The top-10 players in Prox <150 are Lucas Glover, Matt Wallace, Adam Svensson, Andrew Novak, Cam Davis, Ben Griffin, Ben Martin, Max McGreevy, Brendan Steele, and Ryan Moore.

Par-5 Scoring was pivotal in Max Homa’s 2021 victory, where he entered the week top-10 in the category, and we should expect the players best equipped to generate birdie and Eagle opportunities to rise to the top again this year. The top-10 in Par-5 Scoring entering this week are Stephan Jaeger, Cameron Percy, Cam Davis, Alex Noren, Emiliano Grillo, Thomas Detry, Patrick Rodgers, Max Homa, Taylor Pendrith, and Brandon Wu.

Simply put, players who rank above average in Par-5 Scoring, Prox <150, and SG: P (Poa) should rise to the top. There are just 12 players who fit that criteria this week: Max Homa, Chris Gotterup, Tom Hoge, Mark Hubbard, .Michael Gligic, Chez Reavie, Matt Wallace, David Lipsky, Webb Simpson, Peter Malnati, Matthias Schwab, and Brandt Snedeker.

The ideal player for this week should rank above-average in Par-5 Scoring, Birdies or Better Gained, Prox 75-150, SG: ARG, SG: P (Poa), and Course & Comp Course History. Only four players meet that criteria in this week’s field: Max Homa, Chez Reavie, Tom Hoge, and Ben Griffin.

Correlations

Looking at the correlation charts this week for Silverado Resort, it’s Greens In Regulation and Par-4: 450-500 which fall outside the top-10 in correlation compared to TOUR average. SG: OTT also takes a notably steep dip in importance, furthering the narrative that this is a bona fide second shot course where players who are extremely accurate or extremely long off the tee can both find success. The stats which make the largest increase in importance at Silverado Resort include SG: ARG and Scrambling Gained, considering the high percentage of approaches from outside the fairway and tricky greens complexes.

fortinet championship odds correlations
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT at Silverado

Only six players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Ben Griffin, Sahith Theegala, Callum Tarren, Davis Riley, Michael Kim, and JJ Spaun.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: JASON DAY

Jason Day is, for all intents and purposes, becoming the forgotten man on the PGA TOUR. For reasons still unclear, he hasn’t been an active target of Greg Norman’s to fill out the new Australian contingent on the LIV tour alongside his countrymen Cam Smith and Marc Leishman. He’s also been passed over on next week’s depleted President’s Cup roster by Trevor Immelman for the likes of Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Cam Davis instead. And yet, there still hasn’t been much of a stir behind the omission of the former world No. 1. Last year, the Fortinet Championship was played the week prior to the Ryder Cup, and Max Homa did not mix words when admitting he came out motivated to prove a point he belonged on that team. This year, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Jason Day play into a similar revenge narrative.

Day will make his debut at Silverado Resort this week, but should like what he sees on these grounds which feed into his strengths of Distance and strong short game on Poa. Day has made a career thriving on West Coast Poa, with two wins at the Farmers Insurance Open and 11 total top-5 finishes in the state of California. His best result of the 2022 season came at the Farmers, where he finished T3 on a layout in Torrey Pines which shares a similar emphasis on Driving Distance and crafty short game around Poa greens.

Although 2022 was a work-in-progress year for Day as he experimented through swing changes, he proved he has what it takes to still contend on the PGA TOUR with top-25 finishes in five of his 14 starts in 2022. He closed out the year gaining strokes ball striking in each of his last four events, and should benefit from the extended break to get himself back to full health. If he continues to be the forgotten man according to the sportsbooks when odds open on Monday, I’ll be happy to buy low on a great course fit for the Australian.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR AT THE 2023 FORTINET CHAMPIONSHIP

As the 2023 PGA TOUR season officially gets under way this week, it’s always interesting to track the next class of Korn Ferry Tour rookies. This time last year officially marked the launch party for my Mito Pereira fandom before posting a T3 finish in 2022, so anticipating an imminent jump to LIV post-Presidents Cup, I’m officially a bandwagon free agent once again, looking to do some scouting on the new class. Beyond the rookies, it’ll be interesting to track how serious the players in the Presidents Cup will take this event in wine country, or if they’ll simply use as a tune-up for competitive reps before chartering off to Quail Hollow on a short week.

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early towards the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2023 Fortinet Championship odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.

fortinet championship odds

In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, Birdies or Better Gained, Par-5 Scoring, and Comp Course History, followed by a more balanced mix of Prox: 75-150, SG: P (L36, Poa), P4: 400-450, Driving Distance, and SG: ARG.

Model Favorites

Cam Davis found himself atop the model this week, an appropriate introduction to the types of unusual names we’ll start to see pop this Fall Swing. A strong close to the 2022 season has earned himself a spot on the Presidents Cup roster next week, as he ranks top-10 in this field in SG: APP, Birdies or Better Gained, Comp Course History, Par-5 Scoring, and Prox: 100-150.

After Davis, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Max Homa, Taylor Pendrith, Chris Gotterup, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Svensson, Alex Noren, Brendan Steele, Chesson Hadley, and Emiliano Grillo.

When Fortinet Championship odds open on Monday, I’ll be looking to construct a fairly long card, assuming the favorites in this field have their eyes set on the Presidents Cup. As of now, I’m eying Jason Day, Emiliano Grillo, and Patrick Rodgers. Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the 2023 Fortinet Championship odds!

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John Haslbauer Avatar
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John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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