Fortinet Championship Odds: Final Round PGA TOUR Golf Bets

Written By Tyler Duke | Last Updated September 16, 2023

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After two rare off-weeks, the PGA TOUR is back at it this week with the Fortinet Championship in Napa, California. Typically the beginning of the PGA TOUR’s FedExCup Playoffs that ran for 11 months through the TOUR Championship, this year is the beginning of going back to a more conventional season that only runs during one year. The Fortinet Championship is now the start of the Fall season that determines who will keep their PGA TOUR cards and who will boost their status for next year’s elevated events. But the Fortinet Championship odds board through three rounds shows that some big names are still taking advantage of the opportunity at Silverado resort.

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Tournament Recap Through First Three Rounds

The Fortinet Championship can often produce some strange leaderboards and offers the opportunity to go low, so it was no surprise when Lucas Herbert jumped out of the gates with a 63 to lead on Thursday. The Australian tends to be pretty boom-or-bust, and we now don’t see him anywhere near the top of the leaderboard with two poor rounds to follow his first-round lead. The two biggest names in the field, Max Homa — who is the two-time defending champion — and Justin Thomas, both played solidly to position themselves for a strong week.

The few big names come to play

Thomas and Homa improved their games even more on Friday to get to 8 under and well in contention for the tournament, but it was perhaps the third biggest name in Sahith Theegala who took control with a second-round 64. He was joined by S.H. Kim at 12 under as the 36-hole co-leaders. Theegala was well within the top 50 of the FedExCup, so he’s simply playing for prize money and Official World Golf Ranking points this week at a place that he’s played very well in the past. Kim is one of the players who snuck into the St. Jude, but he’ll need a good Fall to qualify for some elevated events next year.

Homa stormed out of the gates on Saturday and quickly became the favorite on the Fortinet Championship odds board, but he faded badly on the back nine and is likely too far behind the lead at 10 under. Theegala set the pace once again with a 67 to take a two-shot lead over Thomas, Kim and Cameron Davis. Thomas holed out eagle from a greenside bunker on the 15th hole as he tries to build momentum for his criticized Ryder Cup pick. He’s also looking to play himself into a better FedExCup position after missing the Playoffs last year.

The other two players within three shots of the lead are Matt Kuchar, who briefly held the lead, and Eric Cole, the potential Rookie of the Year.

Final Round PGA TOUR Golf Bets To Consider

Winner: Justin Thomas

Preferred Odds: +400

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Elite players rarely stay down for too long, and that’s especially the case for elite ball strikers. I was never concerned about Justin Thomas long-term from his struggles throughout 2023. He still showcased the ability to be a strong ball striker plenty of times, and he’s never relied on his putter much anyway. With some work on the short game and some minor adjustments tee-to-green, there was never much of a question that Thomas would figure it out. And it may be happening quickly.

Thomas has been hard at work since shockingly missing the Playoffs, and he was my favorite pick this week because of it. While many guys may take some time to shake the rust off, especially those who have been off since the Wyndham Championship, Thomas has been working extra hard to prepare for the Ryder Cup. He already has a great history at this tournament, and to be quite honest, this is a very weak field that Thomas stands well above at his best outside of Max Homa.

Currently fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach, Thomas is striking it well, and he’s gaining a healthy amount of strokes on the greens. While Theegala does lead him by two, we’ve seen the nerves get to him before. Thomas will be very comfortable tomorrow. Theegala is also doing almost all of his work with a magical short game and putter this week. He’s gained less than two shots with his ball striking, which is a formula that can quickly come and bite you in a nerve-filled round. Give me Thomas with these odds and just one man ahead of him.

Winner: Callum Tarren

Preferred Odds: +6500

With just six players within three shots of the lead, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to grab a guy well behind who could post a number. We did it successfully with Viktor Hovland at the BMW on a lesser scale, but this is a course that can really give away a low round. Callum Tarren is the name I like for that at huge odds up to 70/1. Tarren is leading the field with the driver this week and is second in distance. That’s a big reason I think he could post a number.

The Englishman is a powerful player who catches some big hot streaks when he’s going. The all-around game is clicking at Silverado. Tarren also finds it on the greens occasionally despite mostly being known as an aggressive player who can light it up tee-to-green. He’ll need to do that on Sunday to make up a five-shot deficit.

Top-10 Finish: Peter Malnati

Preferred Odds: +150

We’ll go on the opposite side of things for the top-10 finish and take a player who does his work on the greens usually. Peter Malnati surprisingly hasn’t played very well here in his career, but he’s always been a guy who pops up at times during the Fall season and will always prefer a shorter course where he can hit wedges and let the putter do most of the work.

That has been the formula this week as he sits in a tie for eighth and has gained more than three shots to the field in both around the green work and putting. The ball striking has done just enough to support that as he’s gaining slightly on the field in both ball striking categories. I’m happy getting plus-odds here for Malnati to stay in position and post a solid round on Sunday considering he’s already in the top 10. He’s a consistent player on courses like this, and as long as the ball striking stays decent enough, we can depend on him to hole putts and not fall back in the final round.