2023 Fortinet Championship Odds: Everything To Know About New PGA TOUR FedExCup Fall

The PGA TOUR is back to begin the new 2023-2024 season. The first stop of the Fall Swing brings us up to Silverado Resort & Spa in Napa Valley, California for the Fortinet Championship. Find longer golf odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential Fortinet Championship payouts. Ryder Cup teammates Max Homa and Justin Thomas are the headlining favorites in the first event of the new season.

It is good to be back in the swing of things on the PGA TOUR, with the shortest offseason in sports behind us already. Two weeks removed from Viktor Hovland’s surging victory at the TOUR Championship, the new fall season will officially begin in Napa Valley, California for the Fortinet Championship at Silverado Resort & Spa.

Fall is a golden time of year for sports with NFL, College Football, and MLB all in full swing. With time being precious for all of us, the PGA TOUR previews will be kept a bit more succinct during the fall season, prioritizing all the need-to-know analysis of the course, course history, and key stats for each event.

Last year, President Cup “snubs” came out the gates hot, citing a little extra motivation to prove the captains of their respective countries wrong. Mackenzie Hughes, Keegan Bradley, Russell Henley, and Adam Svensson were each fringe considerations for the 2022 Presidents Cup and picked up wins immediately after. Could we see a similar trend from Americans and Europeans left off the Ryder Cup teams this year?

For the task at hand this week at Silverado Resort & Spa, there are many different avenues we have seen players go to attack this course. However, a consistent throughline of strong wedge play inside 150 yards, Par-5 scoring, and comfortability putting on California Poa greens has proven a consistent formula over the years. Now let’s get into the key facts and info about Silverado Resort & Spa for the 2023 Fortinet Championship.

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FORTINET CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: THE FAVORITES

To compare golf betting outright odds in legal sports betting states, as well as other Fortinet Championship offerings, scroll to the bottom of this post.

Introducing the New FedExCup Fall

The PGA TOUR’s fall schedule is not quite what we’re used to seeing, as the new 2023 “FedExCup Fall” series will feature just seven events between now and the end of the year. The new fall series will primarily incentivize players who fell outside the top 70 FedEx Cup Playoff qualifications to remain inside the top 125 of the standings and retain full-time membership for the 2024 season, which will now begin in January.

Playoff qualifiers in the field such as Max Homa, Stephan Jaeger, and Eric Cole have nothing to gain by playing in the fall from a qualification standpoint; however, there are still OWGR points and prize money to play for. Winners of the fall events will enjoy the usual benefits, including a two-year PGA TOUR exemption and qualification into the top “Signature Events”. Ten players, not previously eligible, with the most season-long FedExCup points through the FedExCup Fall will also earn exemptions into the first two Designated events that follow the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

FORTINET CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE

For the first time in over a month, we’ll see a full field of 156 players teeing it up in Napa. As the first event after a very short offseason, it’s rare to find many players who lasted throughout the FedEx Cup Playoffs elect to play in the season’s first event, which produces an appealing odds board of viable outright options.

Max Homa is your two-time defending champion at this event, miraculously chasing down Danny Willet with a chip-in birdie on the 72nd hole. He’ll open as the favorite this week alongside his Ryder Cup teammate, Justin Thomas.

A byproduct of the new FedExCup Fall format, there is a precipitous drop from an OWGR standpoint after Homa and Thomas. Sahith Theegala, Cam Davis, Andrew Putnam, Brendon Todd, and Lucas Herbert are the only other five players in this field who fall inside the OWGR top 70.

In addition to Homa, the past winners at Silverado Resort & Spa in this field include Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, Sangmoon Bae, and Jimmy Walker.

INTRODUCTION TO SILVERADO RESORT & SPA

Silverado Resort & Spa will host this PGA TOUR event for the 17th consecutive year since its inception on the schedule in 2007. The event switched title sponsors last year after previously being known as the Safeway Open.

At this venue, we have seen players who either have plus-distance or elite driving accuracy separate on this 7,123-yard par-72. With four scorable par-5s, Par-5 Scoring has also proven to be a strong indicator of success leading into the Fortinet Championship.

Silverado Resort & Spa does not share a ton in common with other California venues like Riviera CC or Torrey Pines, but Max Homa’s recent dominance across all three courses would suggest that familiarity with California Poa greens is a nice luxury to have.

With a winning score traditionally falling between -15 to -19, I’m looking for top ball-strikers with a proven history of birdie-making on easier courses, particularly those with California Poa greens.

For Silverado Resort & Spa course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past Fortinet Championship winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our 2023 Fortinet Championship odds page.

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

Surprisingly, the two-time defending champion of this event, Max Homa, falls outside the top 10 in terms of SG: TOT Silverado Resort & Spa, though this is skewed heavily by 10 strokes lost in 2016 alone. Instead, the top 10 in Course History include Justin Thomas, Chez Reavie, Cameron Percy, Sahith Theegala, Ryan Moore, Taylor Montgomery, Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar, Stewart Cink, and Mark Hubbard.

Course Comps

There are not many short and tight golf courses on the PGA TOUR which still reward distance and deprioritize the importance of the first tee shot. TPC Twin Cities, TPC San Antonio, Colonial CC, Waialae CC, and Detroit Golf Club are the courses that stand out to me as the best examples of comp courses where players can gain on the field by hitting driver aggressively, despite not being prohibitively long. Cameron Champ, Emiliano Grillo, and Brendan Steele are examples of players who have taken this approach to win at both Silverado and at least one of these comp courses.

From a short-game perspective, it’s also a good week to include mixed-condition modeling of putting performance on California Poa courses like Riviera CC, Torrey Pines, and Pebble Beach GL.

Combine performance across this list and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Sam Ryder, Webb Simpson, Taylor Montgomery, Stephan Jaeger, Alex Noren, and SH Kim.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER

• SG: APP
• SG: ARG / Scrambling Gained
• Par 5 Scoring / P5: 550-600
• Prox: 75-150
• Driving Distance
• P4: 400-450
• Birdies or Better Gained
• SG: Putting (L36, Poa)
• Course + Comp Course History

In the spirit of brevity for the fall swing, I’ll forego the usual deep dive per individual key stat category and dive straight into the ideal combo stats I’m eying for players best suited to attack Silverado Resort & Spa. That optimal mix should include SG: Ball Striking, Good Drives Gained, Prox: 75-125, Par-5 Scoring, Comp Course History, and SG: P (L36, Poa). Just eight players rank above average in each stat category: Max Homa, Nate Lashley, Andrew Putnam, Chez Reavie, Brendon Todd, Sam Ryder, Webb Simpson, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

Correlations

Looking at the correlation charts this week for Silverado Resort, it’s Greens In Regulation and Par-4: 450-500 which fall outside the top 10 in correlation compared to the TOUR average. SG: OTT also takes a notably steep dip in importance, furthering the narrative that this is a bona fide second-shot course where players who are extremely accurate or extremely long off the tee can both find success.

The stats that make the largest increase in importance at Silverado Resort include SG: ARG and Scrambling Gained, considering the high percentage of approaches from outside the fairway and tricky greens complexes.

There are 12 players in the field who rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Max Homa, Doug Ghim, Nate Lashley, Justin Thomas, Andrew Putnam, Stephan Jaeger, Cam Davis, Eric Cole, Mark Hubbard, Austin Eckroat, Andrew Novak, and Jimmy Walker.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: STEPHAN JAEGER

If 2022 narratives hold true again this year, then we should be targeting the motivated “Captain’s-pick-snubs-who-weren’t-actually-snubs” at the top of the fall swing. After all, fellow European Vincent Norrman wasted no time picking up his second win of the year at the DP World Tour’s Irish Open immediately following Luke Donald’s announcement of the final Ryder Cup roster. If that trend continues on, the German is the picture-perfect fit to pay it off at the Fortinet Championship.

The 2023 season ended at a bad time for Jaeger, as he was in the midst of a heater with five consecutive top-30 finishes to close out his season. Having qualified for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Jaeger does not need to play for positioning in the FedExCup Fall. That tells me he’s here because he believes he can capitalize on the hot current form and pick up his first career PGA TOUR victory.

Narratives aside, Jaeger’s statistical profile is extremely similar to that of past winners like Emiliano Grillo, Brendan Steele, and Cameron Champ. Each displayed prolonged consistency from tee to green leading into this event and leaned on the strength of their driving and iron play to create birdie opportunities. Jaeger ranks No. 6 in SG: T2G amongst the field this week, and although a cold putter had held him back from contending more regularly last season, he seems to have turned a corner more recently. He’s now gained strokes putting in six of his last eight starts and in each of his last two appearances at Silverado. If the improved putting is here to stay, Jaeger will be one of the top breakout candidates in the new season.

2023 FORTINET CHAMPIONSHIP: PLAYER POOL AND MODEL RESULTS

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2023 Fortinet Championship odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.

Model Breakdown

In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, Birdies or Better Gained, and Prox: 75-125, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: Ball Striking, Good Drives Gained, SG: P (L36, Poa), Par-5 Scoring, P4: 400-450, and SG: ARG.

Model Favorites

To no surprise, Max Homa is atop the model this week, well-positioned to chase a three-peat in Napa Valley against considerably lesser competition than in years past. I’d written off Homa this time last year assuming he was just here out of obligation as a defending champion and that his mind would be fixated on the upcoming Presidents Cup. That means the Ryder Cup tune-up narrative is likely not a valid one, but I’ll still look for better value further down the board from a betting standpoint.

After Homa, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Doug Ghim, Nate Lashley, Justin Thomas, Andrew Putnam, Kevin Streelman, Chez Reavie, Stephan Jaeger, Cam Davis, and Eric Cole.

When Fortinet Championship odds open, I’ll be looking to construct a fairly long card, with longshots beyond 50-1 having proven to be viable in this tournament historically. As of now, I’m eying Stephan Jaeger, Andrew Putnam, Brendon Todd, and Akshay Bhatia as initial leans when the odds release on Monday. Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the 2023 Fortinet Championship odds!

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