2024 Formula One Odds: Australian Grand Prix

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Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
2024 Miami Grand Prix odds

Formula One is back this week in the land down under, where Max Verstappen is looking for his second straight Australian Grand Prix victory. With Red Bull scoring back-to-back 1-2 finishes to start the season, but Ferrari having won here in 2022, Albert Park could throw up some surprises. Throw in the uncertainty about who will be running the second Ferrari this weekend, and the 2024 Australian Grand Prix odds look spicy.

The race begins at 12 a.m. ET Sunday/9 p.m. PT Saturday. Before betting any juicy F1 odds, make sure to check out the best sports betting sites.

2024 Australian Grand Prix Odds

2024 Australian Grand Prix Odds Analysis

Qualifying

Qualifying, set for 1 a.m. ET Saturday is where much of the intrigue is going to be this week. After two quality sessions, qualifying will be key this weekend. Charles Leclerc actually set the fastest qualifying time in Bahrain in the first race, but he set it in Q2 and not Q3, so he didn’t get pole. A former pole sitter here, Leclerc could easily find his way back.

The state of Mercedes will also be fascinating. Lewis Hamilton was 0.038 seconds away from Q2 elimination to Ferrari super-sub Ollie Bearman last week, but last year, the Mercs were nowhere in the Middle East and then lined up 2-3 to start the Grand Prix.

Whether Bearman will be on the grid this weekend is still unclear, but assuming he is still replacing Carlos Sainz, Bearman should be more comfortable this weekend. After just failing to make it into Q3 last week, Bearman should be able to make it this week. Depending on his price to qualify for it, it may be worth a look.

McLaren were nowhere last year until midseason upgrades saw them bolt to the front, so their relative pace is unclear. That said, Oscar Piastri did outqualify Lando Norris in Saudi Arabia. Piastri is +240 at bet365 vs. Norris in qualifying, the latest example of odds so far this season not adjusting to the fact that Piastri has been Lando’s equal since the summer break in Qualifying.

Race

Max Verstappen is probably going to win, but I don’t think that’s nearly as certain as the odds imply. In 2022, when Ferrari was fast, Leclerc qualified on pole and stretched his lead to as much as 8 seconds as various points before Verstappen’s car failed him. Yes, the Ferrari isn’t as quick this year, but we still haven’t seen Leclerc in proper trim at a track he likes.

Given his issues in Bahrain and Jeddah’s Red Bull-favoring characteristics, this is Charles’ chance to show the world he can find wins in good but not great cars. Given I’ve bet him to start on the pole, I’m also betting on the win. Between the chances Ferrari truly have pace, the narrow confines of much of Albert Park, and the fact that Max hasn’t DNF’d since Australia 2022, it’s worth a punt.

Russell found the podium here in 2022 and was leading the race in 2023 before an untimely red flag and an eventual engine failure ruined his race. Given he managed a front-row start and then jumped Max off the line last year, Russell is a podium bet at +450.

Bearman, assuming he ends up driving for Sainz again, to make the Top 6 is also worth a bet. +320 would be a great price for a track where Ferrari should be the clear second fastest car. Seventh in Saudi was an impressive result, especially having to come from 11th on the starting grid. If, with a race weekend under him and three practice sessions, he feels more comfortable, he’ll have the car under him to place in and around the Mercs, the McLarens, and Fernando’s Aston.

Prop Props

Alex Albon to score in the points +175 makes a lot of sense here. The newly redesigned middle sector of Albert Park saw the Williams fastest in Qualifying in 2023. Had Albon not lost the car into the gravel last year, points would have been on the table. Similarly, Logan Sargeant to make Q2 odds may be an option. If he’s priced as the least likely driver to advance, he’s an auto bet at a track where the Williams should go well.

Daniel Ricciardo to make the points at +180 will be a popular bet. Arguably the most popular driver on the grid and certainly the most popular at Albert Park, people will be using the Narrative Street rationale of a home race bump to justify betting the Aussie, but Visa Cash App RB hasn’t shown they have a car capable of fighting for much of anything yet. If you’re really looking for an Aussie to back, Piastri in all forms of head-to-head against Norris is the better move.

Sergio Perez not to finish the race at +600 is also on my card. He crashed in Q1 last year, Albert Park can be notoriously difficult on race starts, and there’s gravel everywhere if you lose the car at all. Also, it would be immensely fun to see all of Australia pretend to be sad as Ricciardo’s main competition for the other Red Bull seat in 2025 crashes.

Best of luck betting F1 odds!

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