Formula One Odds: Italian Grand Prix
Lando Norris finally lived up to his potential in Zandvoort last week, as Formula 1 officially has a title fight. The 2024 season has been waiting for McLaren’s Golden Child to step up to the plate, and a 22-second win in the Netherlands is a nice start to a post-summer break sprint to the line for the title. Will Max Verstappen be able to go 3 for the last 3 at Monza this week, will Lando put together another win, or will Ferrari crash the party at their home GP? Italian Grand Prix Odds are fascinating for that reason.
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2024 Italian Grand Prix Odds
Monza Track History
Monza, oft-nicknamed the Temple of Speed, is the fastest track in the sport. Minimal corners, two hard braking zones, and lots of straight-line speed see drivers whip around Monza. It’s also Ferrari’s home race, filled to the brim with the Tifosi.
It’s been something of a home race for Max Verstappen in this regulation environment. Despite starting the 2022 GP in 7th after a penalty, he has two relatively easy wins here in a row. That said, the Red Bull was definitely the fastest car both times. Now, the car is faltering. That said, the track should help Max.
In the Netherlands, Max struggled in the slow speed corners to turn the car. Here, there’s two chicanes, but outside of that the lap is very fast. The Red Bull issues will be minimized here. The McLaren, which dominated Hungary and Zandvoort, should be weakened here, as they were in similarly-fast Belgium.
Mercedes are a wild card this week, having won at the fast tracks of Silverstone and Belgium. It really does seem like Mercedes traded their latent strength in slow-speed corners from 2022/23 for speed in fast corners, which should mean they’re better here than they were last week.
The real question, however, is Ferrari. Fred Vasseur has admitted there’s an upgrade package coming, and there’s been confidence in Italian tabloids that this upgrade will solve the problems of the Spain upgrade. If they can, Ferrari has the last two poles here, and Charles Leclerc won here in 2019.
2024 Italian Grand Prix Race Odds Analysis
Lando’s gonna win.
Lando got (another) bad start last week, losing the lead into Turn 1 again and therefore sitting behind Max for 15 laps. He still pulled out 22 seconds on Max. If he hadn’t wasted time sitting behind Max, he could have easily beaten him by 30 seconds. There’s no way that circuit characteristics are making up that big of a gap.
I do expect the McLaren to be slower this week, which means I think Oscar Piastri is a fade. Oscar being unable to get ahead of Charles last week was deeply concerning. But Lando should still have the pace.
Podium
Mercedes really are the wild cards this weekend. They don’t seem to really understand when their car is good, which seems suboptimal. More to the point, the theory that they’ve traded slow corner speed for fast corners and straights is a theory. It’s the closest thing we’ve got to anything that will explain these results race to race, but it’s still just a theory. That said, if it’s true we’ve got four drivers for two spots.
The smart money is on Max to get a spot, just because he’s won the last two years here and the Red Bull relatively sets up well here. But I’m going another way. I think this is the weekend when all the concerns about Red Bull’s race pace come home to roost. And frankly, it’s time for a little history.
George, Lewis, and Lando made history in being the first British trio since the 1960s to come 1-2-3 in Qualifying at Silverstone, but the trio haven’t yet had an all-British podium. With how their cars are trending, they’re due one soon. And that seems like this week. Both McLaren and Mercedes generally set their cars up for race pace. Both cars have been good on fast tracks in recent months. And George and Lewis are unquestionably the best driver lineup at maximizing a car’s potential.
Best Of The Rest
Albon and Gasly to get points are auto bets. Make sure to bet that before qualifying to get a better price.
Daniel Ricciardo won here in 2021 and is auditioning for a spot in the Red Bull next year. A points finish isn’t out of the question, and I’ll be looking to target Ricciardo over Tsunoda, Bottas, Ocon, and Stroll this weekend in head-to-heads.
2024 Italian Grand Prix Odds Qualifying
It’s pretty clear that Red Bull is throwing everything into qualifying trim these days. Yes, Lando was able to beat Max in Qualifying in Zandvoort, but the Red Bull was just much slower overall than I expected. In Qualifying, the gap was (relatively) smaller. More importantly, in Belgium, Max won pole by nearly 6 tenths of a second. Given the prioritization of one lap pace and the fact that Spa and Monza end up being at least somewhat correlated year to year, I’m betting on Max pole.
Lando doesn’t need to get on pole this weekend, but he should end up in the Top 3. The McLaren will likely be slower this week, but even in Silverstone, the McLaren was fast enough for 3rd place. I don’t think Mercedes will quite have the pace this weekend, but George Russell popping back into the Top 3 wouldn’t be surprising. That said, my bet is Charles Leclerc.
Charles is a former race winner here, generally better in Qualifying than the race and coming off a fairly miraculous podium. He loves driving Monza. He’s going to need one hell of a lap to do it, but so long as the upgrades don’t suck, he should have the car to fight. At least over one lap.
Other Qualifying Bets
The one meaningful characteristic of the Williams is elite straight line speed. Alex made Q3 here last year and scored a solid points finish. Him to make Q3 again is a very good bet.
Additionally, his ex-teammate Logan Sargeant has been replaced by team boss James Vowles and replaced with Franco Colapinto. We have no idea what Colapinto will do this weekend in a Formula 1 car. Failing to appear in Q2 would not exactly justify the decision to fire the American. That said, I’m betting on the sheer pace of the Williams to be enough to get Colapinto into Q2.
Pierre Gasly won here in 2020 and came 6th in Qualifying here in 2021. He made Q3 and scored points for us last week. Until Tripod fails us, I’m backing him.
Best of luck with Italian Grand Prix odds!
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