On Saturday's March Madness odds board, one-seeds Florida and Auburn square off in a rematch from Feb. 9, in which the Gators upset the Tigers at Neville Arena. The market hasn't budged since opening Florida as a 2.5-point favorite. Another fun way to bet on this matchup is by handicapping Johni Broome props, including points, rebounds, and assists. Below are my predictions of how the Wooden Award candidate will fare against the Gators.
With Broome's injury status appearing less and less of a concern for Auburn, let's handicap his props as if he'll play at or near 100%. As noted on the podcast below, Florida's defensive structure will likely revolve around allowing him to score in isolation while staying home on the Tigers' shooters.
In last year's national title game, UConn executed the same game plan, as Zach Edey tallied 37 points (15-of-25 shooting) in a losing effort.
Moreover, the Gators' post-up defense settles in the 45th percentile on a points-per-possession basis (PPP). Couple that with their struggles in allowing offensive rebounds, and Broome is well-positioned to produce 20 or more points. Nevertheless, this prop has been bet up two points from where it opened. Does that mitigate any potential value? Just because a bet seems like a "layup" doesn't mean it will hit.
Broome's Prop History
The best March Madness betting sites have lined this prop at 19.5 throughout March Madness. Operators opened this market at 17.5 (-110 both ways) to protect against the possibility of Broome's status remaining murky.
Unless you believe Broome is still banged up and won't provide his typical efficiency versus Florida, I wouldn't bet on his under, given the abovementioned schematic edge in his favor.
Good luck with your bets on Johni Broome props for the Final Four!
watch: final four betting preview
https://youtu.be/ayrLQuXVSCE?si=DtX_obtYvnqs4nA_
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