There are just three games left in the 2022-23 college basketball campaign. Let’s break down Final Four odds and stats for the national semifinals. This information can assist with player props too. Click on any of the odds below to place a bet on March Madness odds.
Final Four Stats: NCAA Championship Odds
1. Connecticut Huskies: Domineering The Glass
Sure, Dan Hurley’s bunch owns a top-15 efficiency at both ends (per KenPom), yet a substantial portion of its NCAA tournament success stems from its assertion on the boards. The Huskies boast the second-highest offensive rebounding rate in the country, along with a top-65 percentage on the defensive glass.
Moreover, UConn showcases a +43 rebounding differential during its four matchups in the Big Dance. Junior center Adama Sanogo remains the stud in this department, but 7-foot freshman Donovan Clingan is also posting an outrageous 29.9% defensive rebounding clip in just over 13 minutes per game. Fellow freshman Alex Karaban and the hyper-athletic Andre Jackson chip in as well.
Granted, 6-foot-7 sophomore Norchad Omier plays much bigger than his frame would indicate. Considering Miami has notched an average of 1.25 PPP over its last three contests, its size disadvantage hasn’t come into play, either.
But outside of Omier, the rest of the Hurricanes’ small-ball roster hasn’t battled a lengthy lineup like this one in the tournament.
The Huskies are a spread favorite against the ‘Canes. They’re priced at on the moneyline.
2. Miami Hurricanes: Transition Offense
It’s no secret. Miami is most efficient with fast-break opportunities, compiling a top-20 ranking in both transition frequency and ShotQuality PPP on the move. Nevertheless, UConn’s aforementioned roster construction makes for an arduous task in that regard.
Hence, the Hurricanes’ pressure defense represents a significant variable, especially against the Huskies’ turnover-prone ball handlers (i.e. Jackson and Tristen Newton). They haven’t been exposed in March Madness — at least to the degree that’s necessary in order to pull off an upset.
Should Wooga Poplar and Co. manufacture enough takeaways, producing cleaner looks at the rim in the process, the final score may surprise some. Jim Larrañaga’s crew is set at to advance to the national championship game.
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3. San Diego State Aztecs: War Of Attrition
The results speak for themselves. The Aztecs possess a top-30 ranking in bench minutes (37.5%), and their depth has worn down the opposition in each one of their NCAA tournament contests. Their top-rated adjusted defensive efficiency since Jan. 8 (per Bart Torvik) highlights their ferocity at that end.
Moreover, San Diego State is surrendering a mind-boggling 17% 3-point conversion clip (16-of-94 shooting) in March Madness. Creighton certainly missed a few makable looks down the stretch in their Elite 8 duel, but the Aztecs are still yielding the eighth-fewest open perimeter shots across D-I.
Brian Dutcher’s nine-man rotation sucks the life out of any airspace behind the arc, inducing their top-110 takeaway percentage. While Florida Atlantic doesn’t commit many turnovers overall, it tallied a season-high 22 against Kansas State’s pressure defense.
Johnell Davis and his fellow Owls can’t afford to see those same issues arise — at the expense of losing the tempo battle — versus a more physical opponent.
SDSU is a spread favorite and on the moneyline.
4. FAU Owls: Perimeter Prowess
Dusty May’s crew finally received a dose of positive 3-point variance in the Elite 8, going 9-of-23 (39.1%) at Madison Square Garden. Keep in mind, the Owls are pumping out the 25th-highest scoring rate from behind the arc. Therefore, their 29.1% perimeter inefficiency amid the first three rounds wasn’t because of poor shot selection.
Within May’s floor-spacing attack, Davis and Alijah Martin are the spark plugs, both providing at least a 37.1% 3-point clip. FAU collectively grades out with the sixth-rated offensive spacing in the country. That ranking is ahead of the likes of Creighton, Oral Roberts, and even UConn.
Similar to the Hurricanes, the Owls will garner superior looks in transition — especially given the Aztecs’ menacing half-court defense. More to come on these Final Four stats in my betting guide later this week.
The best odds on FAU to continue its Cinderella tale into Monday night is .
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