With the Sweet 16 set, let’s delve into my updated March Madness power rankings to determine which 2022 Final Four odds are most equipped to cash April 4.
Click on the odds below to place a bet, and continue the discussion in our Discord betting chat, as we dive into all of the games in the big dance. You can reference my pre-tournament power rankings here.
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2022 Final Four Odds: March Madness Power Rankings
For individual games, you can price shop with our value finder. Below are the best odds available across legal sportsbooks to win the national title. These rankings are a combination of my power ratings, along with their path to New Orleans.
- All of Eli’s March Madness Bets
1. Gonzaga ()
Mark Few’s unit is certainly vulnerable against more athletic teams, as Memphis proved on Saturday. But Drew Timme’s dominant second-half performance exhibited that the Bulldogs boast a go-to scorer that can dig them out of a deficit. It wasn’t a sure thing after losing now-pro Jalen Suggs.
2. Arizona ()
If not for the refs failing to blow the whistle in the waning seconds of regulation versus TCU, the Wildcats would’ve been booted from the big dance. Nevertheless, sophomore wing Bennedict Mathurin is any opposing defense’s nightmare. Their frontcourt athleticism also generates plenty of issues — despite Azuolas Tubelis no-showing against the Horned Frogs.
3. Purdue ()
Admittedly, I presumed our Boilermakers futures were toast. But Matt Painter’s ball-screen coverage looks improved in recent games, especially with soon-to-be lottery pick Jaden Ivey appearing more engaged at that end. While Sasha Stefanovic’s pinky injury weakens Purdue’s perimeter attack, its overall offensive prowess deserves a bump if officials are calling Zach Edey’s post-up touches like they did versus Texas.
4. Houston ()
Kelvin Sampson’s stifling ball pressure is the reason the Cougars advanced to the Sweet 16. Houston should have success tallying takeaways against Arizona as well, and their defensive concerns around the perimeter likely won’t be brought to light. Houston’s issues arise when its offense is stuck in the halfcourt, though.
5. Kansas ()
Although the Jayhawks’ position may seem a bit low given their 2022 Final Four odds and path to Caesars Superdome, their defensive woes aren’t a short-term fix. In particular, Bill Self’s group struggles to defend the post and surrenders its fair share of open looks from behind the arc. Kansas’ transition offense is lethal, but can it overcome those flaws on the other side of the floor?
6. Villanova ()
The Wildcats’ defensive intensity impressed over the first two rounds, and their 3-point shooting arsenal should expose Michigan. However, their de facto six-man rotation seemed to wear down versus Ohio State. How will it hold up against the likes of Arizona or Houston?
7. UCLA ()
These aren’t last year’s Bruins, which ranked No. 46 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Mick Cronin’s “death” D lineup, featuring Myles Johnson, Jayden Clark and Payton Watson, provides a major mismatch against any opponent. The key is Jaime Jaquez Jr. (ankle), who’s developed into a two-way machine yet needs to suit up versus North Carolina to supply UCLA with its biggest weapon.
Adjusted Efficiency accounts for the estimate efficiency (points scored or allowed per 100 possessions) a team would accrue or allow against the average Division I opponent.
8. Duke ()
Mike Kryzewski’s ball-screen defense is still a concern, yet the Blue Devils will face a Red Raiders offense that rarely utilizes those sets. Moreover, five-star freshman Paolo Banchero’s improved playmaking has arrived at the most opportune time. My numbers make Duke-Texas Tech a coin flip, so I’ll need a little more time before deciding if I’ll have action on the game.
9. Texas Tech ()
Mark Adams’ attack was fairly pedestrian versus Notre Dame, which has occurred throughout the campaign when it struggles to manufacture fast-break opportunities. While his no-middle defense accumulates lots of havoc, it’s susceptible when opponents are cashing in from distance.
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10. North Carolina ()
The Tar Heels are the most Jekyll and Hyde team left in the dance. Even though they were dominant for much of their game against Baylor, their transition defense was exposed over the final 15 minutes for a reason. On top of that, first-year head coach Hubert Davis is up against the seasoned Cronin, which matters when you consider prep time for this Sweet 16 affair.
11. Arkansas ()
Unless Jaylin Williams draws approximately 102 charges versus Gonzaga, Arkansas will be sent home. It don’t present nearly enough length or consistent shooting to challenge Mark Few’s crew.
12. Providence ()
I’ll happily admit that I was wrong about this Friars bunch. Unfortunately, their fast-break defense isn’t sound enough to help lead them to a national title — just like North Carolina — yet they could give Kansas a scare on Friday.
13. Michigan ()
Variance is a part of the NCAA tournament, but the Wolverines wouldn’t be facing the Wildcats if the Vols hit their open 3s. While the 7-foot-1 Hunter Dickinson presents a mismatch against Wright’s frontcourt, he won’t be enough against a hot-shooting Villanova squad.
14. Miami ()
Although the Hurricanes dismantled an exposable Auburn group, they’re ultra-reliant on turnovers to jumpstart their offense. When they fail to produce transition opportunities, they’re a very beatable opponent.
15. Iowa State ()
If you’re not a believer in stagnant half-court offenses, try watching the Cyclones.
16. Saint Peter’s ()
The Peakcocks have been a fun story, but they simply can’t match up with Purdue’s size.