Final Four Odds: Will Flagg Win NCAA Tournament Most Oustanding Player?
College basketball bettors are knee-deep in preparation for the most popular March Madness odds. Nevertheless, additional markets, like 2025 NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player, also provide a money-making opportunity. As expected, Duke freshman Cooper Flagg is favored to win the award. Let’s explore the pricing and the history behind these de facto Final Four odds.
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final four odds: NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player
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players
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Cooper Flagg
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Walter Clayton jr.
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Johni Broome
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L.J. cryer
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Milos Uzan
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Tahaad Pettiford
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Kon Knueppel
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Emanuel Sharp
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Tyrese Proctor
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Alijah Martin
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Will Richard
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J’Wan Roberts
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Thomas Haugh
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Khaman Maluach
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Alex Condon
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Chad Baker-Mazara
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Denver Jones
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Miles Kelly
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Sion James
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Denzel aberdeen
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Chaney Johnson
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History Behind MOP Betting
I’ve investigated the (lack of) science behind the recent winners of this award. Since 2000, five players have been named the regional and NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player. That would seemingly eliminate Flagg, Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr., Houston’s Emanuel Sharp, and Auburn’s Johni Broome.
Then again, a potential championship game between the Blue Devils and Tigers could hinge on how Broome and Flagg fare against one another, which means both are firmly in the mix.
In fact, we nearly witnessed an exception to this unwritten rule in the 2022 national title game. Armando Bacot, UNC’s former All-American center, was on his way to claiming consecutive MOP honors. However, Kansas overcame a double-digit second-half deficit, and Jayhawks’ Ochai Agbaji (+500 pre-Final Four MOP odds) took home the award in a stunning turn of events.
Agbaji delivered 21 points on 6-of-7 shooting from the perimeter in the national semifinal, yet he wasn’t the star when Kansas cut down the nets. That nod went to David McCormack, who accrued a double-double and the game-winning hook shot.
Thus, it’s not an exaggeration to say betting on the Most Outstanding Player odds is a semi-crapshoot.
Could Flagg ‘Win’ If Duke Loses?
Since the award was introduced, 10 players have been etched in as MOP despite failing to win the title. Akeem Olajuwon was the last to accomplish this feat, dating back to 1983. Flagg is a generational talent, but I wouldn’t count on it.
final four odds: MOP Longshot picks
Houston F J’Wan Roberts: +3900
Roberts has averaged just 9.5 points per game in the NCAA tournament, most recently strapped to the bench with foul trouble versus Tennessee. But as enticing as the Cougars’ sharpshooters are among MOP odds, Houston can’t afford to have Roberts’ issues continue if they hope to defy their national title odds.
Should Kelvin Sampson’s squad move on to play on Monday night, I expect Roberts’ two-way prowess to keep him in the mix.
Duke G Tyrese Proctor: +5500
Even after winning the East Regional MOP, I can’t imagine voters bypassing Flagg if he shines again. That said, Proctor can go off over a small sample size, already shooting 64% from behind the arc in the NCAA tournament. If the Alamodome’s shooting backdrop doesn’t faze him, a poor showing from Flagg against Houston’s ultra-physical defense could open the door.
Florida F Alex Condon: +12000
An ankle injury in the West Regional semifinals quieted Condon over the Gators’ last two victories, allowing Thomas Haugh to steal the show. With extra time to heal before Saturday’s contest versus Auburn, the stretch five can reemerge against his SEC rival.
In Florida’s lone regular-season meeting versus the Tigers, Condon provided 17 points and 10 rebounds. If the Gators advance and face Duke in the championship game, Condon would be tasked with scoring against the Blue Devils’ drop coverage.
Auburn G Miles Kelly: +15000
I was torn between Kelly and his backcourt mate, Denver Jones, whose MOP odds are also in triple digits. While Kelly has shot 16.7% from around the arc over the last three games, he’s arguably as dangerous as the abovementioned Agbaji, drilling 38.1% of his three-pointers this season. Like Condon, Kelly was productive versus his upcoming opponent, scoring 22 points on Feb. 8.
Good luck with your bets on MOP and more Final Four odds!
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