Final Four Odds: Edey Atop BetMGM’s NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player Board

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
Final Four Odds

Most college basketball bettors are knee-deep in preparation for the most popular March Madness odds. However, additional markets, such as NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player, are also worth considering in Final Four odds. Purdue center Zach Edey is the slight favorite to win it. You can sift through the rest of BetMGM’s options below.

Click anywhere below to wager on any of these Final Four odds. You can also register for BetMGM’s exclusive sign-up offer.

Final four odds: most outstanding player

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Zach Edey
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Donovan Clingan
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Tristen Newton
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Cam Spencer
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DJ Burns
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Mark Sears
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Stephon Castle
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Braden Smith
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Alex Karaban
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DJ Horne
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Aaron Estrada
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Grant Nelson
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Fletcher Loyer
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Lance Jones
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Rylan Griffen
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Mohamed Diarra
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Casey Morsell
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Michael O’Connell
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Jayden Taylor
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History Behind Award

Two years ago, I dug into the science behind who’s cashed in on their odds. Only five players have won regional and NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player this century. On the surface, that would exclude Edey, Donovan Clingan (UConn), DJ Burns (N.C. State), and Mark Sears (Alabama).

Nevertheless, a potential national championship matchup between the Huskies and Boilermakers could hinge on how Edey fares against Clingan, meaning both are firmly in the mix.

We nearly witnessed another exception to the “rule,” as Armando Bacot was en route to claiming his second MOP honor in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. That is, if North Carolina upended Kansas in the final minute. Jayhawks wing Ochai Agbaji, who entered the Final Four at +500 to win it, took it home instead.

Although Agbaji scored 21 points (on 6-of-7 shooting from the perimeter) in the national semifinal, he was not the star when Kansas cut down the nets. That nod went to David McCormack, who accrued a double-double and the game-winning hook shot. McCormack notched 25 points and 9 boards in the previous matchup against Villanova, to boot.

Thus, it’s not an exaggeration to say the Most Outstanding Player odds are a semi-crapshoot.

Final Four MOP Odds Strategy

Implied probability tells us UConn versus Purdue is the most likely championship tilt. BetMGM has the Huskies over the Boilermakers at -120 (54.6%) while Purdue is +300 (25%) to defeat UConn on Monday. I’m more inclined to consider players from either squad, especially because my raw numbers align with this notion.

UConn wing Stephon Castle intrigues me, partly because of my theory that he will hamper Sears in the national semifinals. This angle is incorporated into one of my Final Four picks. Then again, Castle only scored 20+ points three times this season. His defensive prowess is notable, but he would need a high-scoring output to win it. Even at +2500, I’ll pass.

Elsewhere, UConn forward Alex Karaban is +3500. The 6-foot-8 sophomore has shot a mere 26.3% in the NCAA tournament, making this wager a true buy-low opportunity. Karaban is more than capable of catching fire from behind the arc. For one, he combined for nine triples in wins over Marquette and Providence earlier this month.

Moreover, Karaban would have a pair of favorable matchups. In recent games, Grand Canyon’s Tyson Grant-Foster and Ole Miss’ Jaemyn Brakefield took full advantage of Alabama’s lack of a defensive-oriented four-man. Karaban could space out the less agile Trey Kaufman-Renn if the most likely championship matchup occurs, too.

Could Edey ‘Win’ If Purdue Loses?

Overall, 10 men and one woman have won the award despite failing to win the national title. The last men’s player to accomplish this feat was Akeem Olajuwon in 1983. Edey is a generational talent, but I wouldn’t count on it.

outside shots: final four betting preview

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