College Basketball Final Four Picks: Will Longshot Ole Miss Defy Betting Odds?
With roughly one month until Selection Sunday, college basketball odds are in full swing. Often, Final Four contenders will undergo a lull before reaching their peak. The 2022-23 UConn Huskies are a prime example. Dan Hurley’s team eviscerated their non-conference foes but lost six of eight Big East matchups before masterfully adapting to how opponents defended their Swiss Army knife, Andre Jackson. Let’s assess the Final Four odds that showcase similar tendencies.
Click any March Madness odds throughout this article to place a wager. We recommend checking out the best sportsbook promos at the best sports betting sites.
best college basketball promos & Bonus codes
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Use Bonus Code: THELINES
- Bet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose
- OR First Bet Safety Net up to $1,000
- 30% Extra on Same Game Parlay Profit
- T&Cs Apply. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER 21+
- Use Bonus Code: THELINES
- Stream NFL Games In-App for Free
- 21+ Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
- Use Promo Code: THELINESDYW
Get $200
- Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins
- Available on Desktop, Android & iOS
- Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. 21+
- To Claim: Click Play Now
- Up to $100 in Bonus Bets if First Your Bet Doesn't Win
- Get Your Bets Boosted
- 21+. Gambling Problem? Call/Text 1-800-Gambler. T&Cs apply
- To Claim: Click Play Now
- Bet and Get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets
- Earn FanCash & Spend it on Team Swag or More Bets
- 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
- To Claim: Click Play Now
Bet $5 Get $200 in Bonus Bets + Score a No Sweat Parlay Every Day
PLUS Get a $50 Bonus Bet on Deposit
PLUS up to $1,000 Deposit Bonus
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
march madness betting 2025: final four odds
1. Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee Volunteers +240 on BetMGM
Like the UConn squad noted above, Tennessee went undefeated in non-conference play. At the time, the Vols had seemingly replaced Dalton Knecht without a hitch, yet Chaz Lanier’s perimeter efficiency has dipped 12.2 percentage points against SEC competition. In fact, their adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO) ranks 11th in the conference since Jan. 4, resulting in a stretch of three losses in four games.
Last year, Alabama shot 38.8% from long range through early February before enduring negative regression to end the regular season. The Crimson Tide rediscovered their shooting stroke in March Madness en route to the Final Four.
Granted, Tennessee is not as reliant on 3-point shot volume as Alabama. But Lanier and Co. could regain their elite-level play over a four-game span in the NCAA tournament.
Analytically speaking, the Vols demonstrate a parallel profile to 2013-14 UConn and Florida, which made the Final Four before the Huskies cut down the nets.
2. Ole Miss Rebels: Ole Miss Rebels +800 on DraftKings
Since the preseason, I have circled Ole Miss as a potential breakout candidate among national title odds. Although the Rebels’ odds haven’t shifted much, their defensive refinements have come to fruition, making them a dark horse for the Final Four.
For context, the Rebels rank 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD), up 125 spots from last season. Ole Miss coach Chris Beard reunited with his former defensive coordinator, Mark Adams, and their no-middle scheme has rounded into form.
Moreover, the Rebels’ steal rate grades in the 92nd percentile, and their offensive turnover percentage is the top-ranked across D-I. Combine these variables with their five-out lineup, led by 6-foot-8 Malik Dia, and it’s a recipe for a deep tournament run.
After an 11-2 mark in the non-conference slate, their recent stumbles were seemingly a result of negative variance:
- Overtime loss at Mississippi State
- One-point defeat vs. Texas A&M (97.9% win probability in the final minute)
- Eight-point loss at Missouri (without Dre Davis)
- 10-point defeat vs. Auburn (68.6% free-throw shooting)
Rebels’ Intriguing Ceiling
Ole Miss and Tennessee are comparable in that both should benefit from breaking out of the SEC bubble wrap. KenPom, a premier analytical college basketball resource, has been pegged as the best conference, almost 3.8 points higher than the Big Ten. In a league where teams beat up one another incessantly, the Rebels’ physicality should pay dividends on a neutral court.
I added Final Four odds to my futures portfolio, which you can find on our free sports betting Discord channel. Given Ole Miss’ +3500 longshot pricing, we’re cooking with gas if the Rebels are in the mix for a No. 4 seed.
Saturday’s top-16 reveal will help answer this. March Madness will be as wide-open as before UConn’s reign, so you best have some longshots. Good luck with your wagers on Final Four odds!
| Team | Market | Odds | Units |
| Auburn Tigers | National Title | +3500 | 0.30 |
| Ole Miss Rebels | Title/Final Four | +8500/+2500 | 0.20 |
| Texas A&M Aggies | Final Four | +2000 | 0.20 |
| Maryland Terrapins | Final Four | +2300 | 0.20 |
Latest College Basketball News
Related Content
RELATED ARTICLES
