College Basketball Final Four Picks: Will Longshot Ole Miss Defy Betting Odds?

With roughly one month until Selection Sunday, college basketball odds are in full swing. Often, Final Four contenders will undergo a lull before reaching their peak. The 2022-23 UConn Huskies are a prime example. Dan Hurley's team eviscerated their non-conference foes but lost six of eight Big East matchups before masterfully adapting to how opponents defended their Swiss Army knife, Andre Jackson. Let’s assess the Final Four odds that showcase similar tendencies.

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march madness betting 2025: final four odds

1. Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee Volunteers +300 on BetRivers

Like the UConn squad noted above, Tennessee went undefeated in non-conference play. At the time, the Vols had seemingly replaced Dalton Knecht without a hitch, yet Chaz Lanier's perimeter efficiency has dipped 12.2 percentage points against SEC competition. In fact, their adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO) ranks 11th in the conference since Jan. 4, resulting in a stretch of three losses in four games.

Last year, Alabama shot 38.8% from long range through early February before enduring negative regression to end the regular season. The Crimson Tide rediscovered their shooting stroke in March Madness en route to the Final Four.

Granted, Tennessee is not as reliant on 3-point shot volume as Alabama. But Lanier and Co. could regain their elite-level play over a four-game span in the NCAA tournament.

Analytically speaking, the Vols demonstrate a parallel profile to 2013-14 UConn and Florida, which made the Final Four before the Huskies cut down the nets.

2. Ole Miss Rebels: Ole Miss Rebels +2400 on FanDuel

Since the preseason, I have circled Ole Miss as a potential breakout candidate among national title odds. Although the Rebels' odds haven't shifted much, their defensive refinements have come to fruition, making them a dark horse for the Final Four.

For context, the Rebels rank 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD), up 125 spots from last season. Ole Miss coach Chris Beard reunited with his former defensive coordinator, Mark Adams, and their no-middle scheme has rounded into form.

Moreover, the Rebels' steal rate grades in the 92nd percentile, and their offensive turnover percentage is the top-ranked across D-I. Combine these variables with their five-out lineup, led by 6-foot-8 Malik Dia, and it's a recipe for a deep tournament run.

After an 11-2 mark in the non-conference slate, their recent stumbles were seemingly a result of negative variance:

• Overtime loss at Mississippi State
• One-point defeat vs. Texas A&M (97.9% win probability in the final minute)
• Eight-point loss at Missouri (without Dre Davis)
• 10-point defeat vs. Auburn (68.6% free-throw shooting)

Rebels' Intriguing Ceiling

Ole Miss and Tennessee are comparable in that both should benefit from breaking out of the SEC bubble wrap. KenPom, a premier analytical college basketball resource, has been pegged as the best conference, almost 3.8 points higher than the Big Ten. In a league where teams beat up one another incessantly, the Rebels' physicality should pay dividends on a neutral court.

I added Final Four odds to my futures portfolio, which you can find on our free sports betting Discord channel. Given Ole Miss' +3500 longshot pricing, we're cooking with gas if the Rebels are in the mix for a No. 4 seed.

Saturday's top-16 reveal will help answer this. March Madness will be as wide-open as before UConn's reign, so you best have some longshots. Good luck with your wagers on Final Four odds!