5 Potential PGA TOUR Golf Sleeper Picks: FedEx St. Jude Championship

Written By John Haslbauer on August 9, 2022
fedex st jude picks

The playoffs are just about underway, and after a few additional late withdrawals (most notably from course horse Daniel Berger), the field is currently set to host the top-121 players from the 2022 FedEx Cup standings at the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. Could any potential longshots emerge from FedEx St. Jude picks?

Last year’s WGC FedEx St. Jude produced a climactic finish, as Harris English and Bryson DeChambeau both collapsed together on the back nine on Sunday, opening the door for a three-man playoff, where Abraham Ancer ultimately prevailed over Hideki Matsuyama and Sam Burns. With another loaded field in store and the game’s best players motivated by increased purses, we can only hope the stage is set for another climactic finish.

Below we will look at five possible 2022 FedEx St. Jude picks among sleepers in this week’s golf oddsClick on the odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. 

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COURSE INTRODUCTION

TPC Southwind will offer a refreshing test to the field after a sustained run of birdie fests to close out the 2022 season. Here, players will be rewarded for accuracy off-the-tee, as approaches from the rough into these firm and fast greens will be a tall order to hold. This course is bottom-10 on TOUR in fairway width, so no matter how accurate players have been on the season, we should expect to see a healthy volume of approach shots from the rough, which will in turn emphasize scrambling, and all-around T2G form entering this week. Looking ahead at a moderate weather forecast for the week, I’m expecting the winning score to fall around -14.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my FedEx St. Jude Championship preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our FedEx St. Jude Championship picks with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.

POTENTIAL SLEEPER FEDEX ST. JUDE PICKS

From a golf betting perspective, the FedEx Cup Playoffs have typically drawn the best players in the field towards the top of the leaderboard by week’s end. With that in mind, while I’m always tempted to fill out a betting card of outright bombs, I’ll likely restrain myself and concentrate a tighter card of players 50-1 odds or shorter, reserving the players towards the bottom of the board as placement considerations.

In terms of DFS, it’ll be another important week to monitor ownership, as there are plenty of supremely talented players relegated to the $7K and $6K ranges with potential to push towards a top-10 finish.

Below, find my favorite value leverage plays and longshots for the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

Sahith Theegala (, $7,400)

Sometimes there’s just takes a feeling in the air that it’s a Sahith Theegala week, and in the case of the FedEx St. Jude Championship, I’m getting that feeling yet again. Theegala burst onto the scene in this rookie season with a top-10 finish at the Sanderson Farms in Jackson, Mississippi, so it would seem appropriate that he bookend this rookie campaign by contending again just 200 miles north on the same Bermuda turf at TPC Southwind.

Theegala punched his ticket to the FedEx Cup Playoffs with five top-10 finishes on the season. Unlike most other qualifiers towards the bottom of the board in this field, he’s already proven he can hold his own in tough fields and difficult scoring conditions with top-5 finishes at the WM Phoenix Open, Travelers Championship, and the Memorial. We’ve grown accustomed to seeing Sahith amongst the favorites throughout this summer, so at odds as long as 150-1, he’s a longshot with a legitimate shot to contend, on a course that plays to his strengths of consistency off-the-tee and crafty short game.

Chez Reavie (, $7,100)

As the course history kings of Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, Abraham Ancer, and Daniel Berger continue to drop like flies from this tournament, it’s Chez Reavie who ultimately emerges as the No. 1 course horse left standing at TPC Southwind. Reavie has made six career appearances here between the St. Jude Classic and WGC FedEx St. Jude. Over that span, he’s never finished worse than T27, including three top-6 finishes over his last four appearances.

While competition will be steeper this year as TPC Southwind makes its debut as host to the FedEx Cup Playoffs, Reavie’s form seems to be up to the task, picking up his first win since 2019 at the Barracuda Championship just three starts ago. Over his last nine starts, Reavie’s continued to trend well with four top-15 finishes and only two missed cuts.

His profile as a short, but accurate approach specialist should continue to suit this course well, as he’s gained strokes tee-to-green in every prior trip to TPC Southwind. Ranking No. 1 in Fairways Gained and top-20 in Good Drives Gained, we should expect Reavie to avoid the hazards this week, which makes for an appealing top-30 or top-40 placement bet versus this deep playoff field.

Scott Stallings (, $7,100)

The case to play Scott Stallings at $7.1K on Draft Kings is a fairly easy one, as he’s closed out the 2022 season in scorching hot form with four consecutive top-13 finishes. Over that span, he’s gained across all four categories and averaged over 6 strokes gained from tee-to-green per event, carried by his approach play, which ranks No. 7 in this field over the last 36 rounds.

With that type of form leading in, you would expect some poor course history to offset his value in order to land at $7.1K on Draft Kings, but that hasn’t been the case either, as Stalling ranks No. 7 in this field in SG: TOT at TPC Southwind, including a runner up and four top-40 finishes at this event over his last six trips.

It’s hard to envision Stallings getting over the hump to clear his 8-year winless draught against a field of this caliber, but all signs lead to him as a sensible salary saver and placement bet consideration this week.

Tom Hoge (, $6,800)

Hoge’s position beside Jon Rahm and Billy Horschel in their respective pairing by FedEx standing order is a good reminder of the great flashes he’s shown over the course of this 2022 season, particularly on comp positional courses. In addition to his win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Hoge has amassed nine top-20 finishes. The Pebble Beach success is a good indicator of things to come for Hoge, as players like Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, Daniel Berger, and even Chez Reavie have historically found repeated success at both Pebble Beach and TPC Southwind. That is presumably due to the emphasis on precision off the tee and on approach, and the ability to flight approaches in windy conditions.

It was a concerning stretch this summer for Hoge with six consecutive missed cuts between the Charles Schwab Challenge and The Open as he experimented through swing changes, however there’s still plenty of room for optimism as that stretch was surrounded by top-10 finishes at the PGA Championship and 3M Open. When Hoge’s irons on clicking, he can hold his own with anyone else in this field, as demonstrated by his most recent display of 10 strokes gained on approach at the 3M Open. That tells me he’s found his mid-season form with his irons, so I’m happy to go back to him at a discounted price on the notion that the approach form will stick around for the playoffs.

Trey Mullinax (, $6,500)

Similar to Chez Reavie, Mullinax also profiles as a player with strong course history who rides great momentum into the 2022 FedEx St. Jude, on the heels of his Barbasol Championship victory just three starts ago. While the Barbasol field pales in comparison to what’s in store this week, it’s encouraging to see he’s followed up that first career win with solid showings of T21 at The Open and T37 at the Rocket Mortgage. Granted, all three of those events are extremely forgiving off the tee and cater an advantage to longer bombers, which will not be the case at TPC Southwind, but his course history suggests he can do just fine navigating around these grounds. In two prior starts at TPC Southwind, he’s finished T18 and T6.

The Birmingham, Alabama native seems to have an affinity for this region of the country, as in addition to his win in Kentucky at the Barbasol Championship and prior strong results at this event, he’s also delivered season-best results at the Sanderson Farms (T4), and Honda Classic (T30). I don’t expect Mullinax to contend this week, but for the price, he’s a very viable option to find his way through the cut and put forth a top-30 bid.

Best of luck making your FedEx St. Jude picks!

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John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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