2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Preview: Everything To Know About TPC Southwind

The FedEx St. Jude Championship returns to Memphis to kick off the PGA TOUR’s 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs at TPC Southwind. The top 70 qualify for the field, a change from the previous rules of the top 125. Find longer golf odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential FedEx St. Jude Championship payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy are the favorites for this year’s FedEx St. Jude Championship.

The heat is on now as the PGA TOUR heads to Memphis, Tennessee, to kick off the 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs. The first stop is the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. Our weekly preview begins, as always, with a look at TPC Southwind and the FedEx St. Jude Championship odds.

The FedEx Cup Playoffs continue to evolve its format. Like last year, however, a condensed field of the 70 best players in the FedEx Cup Standings will tee it up in Memphis. Similar to the Signature Event structure earlier this season, this event will feature no cut, with 72 holes guaranteed for the full field. After this week, the top 50 in the FedEx Cup Standings will qualify for the BMW Championship for the second round of the playoffs. Next week, all players in the BMW Championship field will secure the highly coveted exemptions for all 2025 Designated Events.

Despite all the changes, TPC Southwind is no stranger to the PGA TOUR, as it has hosted events each year since 1989. We’ve gotten our fair share of high stakes, limited-field action here as well, with the top-70 players in the world coming for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational from 2019-2021. TPC Southwind is known for extremely firm, fast Bermuda greens, penal Bermuda rough and persistent water hazards throughout. Those have given players a stern tee-to-green test and kept winning scores in a modest range.

Typically, when we see a loaded field of all the game’s best players in one place, it comes on a rotating course set up for majors or a playoff event. The unique combination of a limited yet jam-packed field on familiar grounds should result in fewer surprises and a more predictable result from one of the presumptive favorites and, therefore, breed a tighter, more top-heavy betting card. I’ll look to hone in on the players who are best in terms of SG: APP, Total Driving, and SG: P (Firm & Fast Bermuda) when building out my card.

Consider A Donation

I’d be remiss to kick off a preview of this event without encouraging anyone with some spare golf betting winnings to consider a donation to St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital. It is, without a doubt, one of the best charity organizations out there and one I’m proud to help donate to each year.

Now let’s get into the key facts and info about TPC Southwind for the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship.

FedEx st. jude CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Below are the favorites for the St. Jude Championship this week and the best available odds at sportsbooks in your state.

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THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

The field is set with the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings ready to tee it up in Memphis. In this reduced field of 70, there will be no cut, so all players will have the security of four full rounds ahead of them.

With a Monday finish in store at the Wyndham Championship, the FedEx St. Jude Championship field is not quite locked yet. As of Sunday morning, Brendon Todd, Seamus Power, and Emiliano Grillo sit on the inside of the top-70 bubble, with Matt Kuchar, Beau Hossler, and Victor Perez in position to bump them out with a strong finish in the final two rounds of the Wyndham Championship.

For now, all of the top 70 in the FedEx Cup Standings are healthy and ready to play in Memphis this week. Like the other Signature Events preceding the playoffs this year, we should expect Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy to headline the field in a class of their own as the betting favorites. Should there be any withdrawals, there will be no backfill from alternates.

Despite its long history between the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and St. Jude Classic, Justin Thomas and Will Zalatoris are the only past winner at TPC Southwind in the field this week. For reference, Abraham Ancer, Brooks Koepka, Daniel Berger, and Dustin Johnson have each won this event over the last decade, but are either not qualified for the 2024 playoffs, or have since left the PGA TOUR for LIV.

INTRODUCTION TO TPC SOUTHWIND

This tournament has endured many changes over the years, but despite the rotating events that have run through TPC Southwind, the course has remained a mainstay since 1989. TPC Southwind hosted the St. Jude Classic and kept the event on the schedule here through 2018. In 2019, the WGC Bridgestone at Firestone CC became known as the WGC St. Jude Invitational, attracting the top 75 players in the world to Memphis for increased prize money. In its three years as host to the WGC event, TPC Southwind produced winners of Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, and Abraham Ancer.

At 7,233 yards, TPC Southwind measures fairly average in terms of length by PGA TOUR standards, and the list of contenders over the years would suggest that distance is not a prerequisite for success. The top 10 in SG: TOT at TPC Southwind are Dustin Johnson, Daniel Berger, Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, Seung-yul Noh, Chez Reavie, Austin Cook, Webb Simpson, Harris English, and Billy Horschel. Generally speaking, that suggests an emphasis on players who can consistently position themselves well off the tee and are predominantly comfortable putting on pure Bermuda greens. Since the St. Jude Classic evolved into the WGC FedEx St. Jude, we’ve seen a progression of the cream rising to the top. Skilled players from tee to green should naturally be best suited to navigate this course.

How It Breaks Down

As another par 70, TPC Southwind deprioritizes the emphasis on Par-5 Scoring. Just two exist on the property, which in turn mitigates the volume of birdie-or-better opportunities. The two par 5s, each reachable in two, are the only holes at TPC Southwind with a scoring average better than 0.1 under par. By contrast, 12 holes have a scoring average above par, with half averaging at least 0.1 strokes over. That sets us up a complete tee-to-green test. It will reward well-rounded players who can keep their tee shots in the fairway and scramble often to save par.

Unlike Sedgefield CC, TPC Southwind features a balanced distribution of hole ranges, which should again suit the most skilled players in the field who possess a diverse arsenal of shots. With that said, a concentration of nearly one in every three approach shots came from 150-175 yards in last year’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. So, players with strong mid-irons should capitalize most on the scoring opportunities. Ten holes fall between 400-500 yards, so as tends to be the case on any given PGA TOUR event, the players who can capitalize on these holes should find themselves in contention by week’s end.

For TPC Southwind course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past FedEx St. Jude winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our St. Jude Championship odds page.

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

When I think of the FedEx St. Jude at TPC Southwind, names like Daniel Berger, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, and Abraham Ancer come to mind first as perennial contenders. Unfortunately, none of them will be back in Memphis this week, which creates a wide open feeling heading into the first event of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

Will Zalatoris and Justin Thomas – the only past champions of this event in the field this week – rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in terms of course history. They are followed by Sahith Theegala, Billy Horschel, Rory McIlroy, Taylor Moore, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Erik van Rooyen, and JT Poston. Memphis in August is no walk in the park, so I still find value in referencing course history this week, as certain players are better equipped than others to withstand some of the hottest playing conditions we see all season.

Looking at results over the last five years, just eight players have posted multiple top-15 finishes: Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Sahith Theegala, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Cam Davis.

Course Comps

The emphasis of driving accuracy over distance (particularly to avoid water hazards and gnarly Bermuda rough), and putting on smooth Bermuda greens, are staples of Florida golf that that should translate well to TPC Southwind. As evidence, the success seen in recent years by Florida residents Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, and Daniel Berger.

The course that jumps out as the closest embodiment to these conditions is East Lake. East Lake features the same agronomy of Zoysia fairways and pure Champion Bermuda greens, moderate scoring conditions with severe penalty for missed fairways, and consistent names atop the leaderboard like Billy Horschel, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. 

In addition to East Lake, TPC Sawgrass comes to mind next as a more challenging TPC layout with a similar emphasis on positional tee shots and the option to get more aggressive with the driver from hole to hole. TPC Scottsdale, PGA National, Harbour Town, Waialae CC, and Innisbrook Resort each also feature similar Bermuda grass layouts with overlapping results from players with comparable profiles. 

On a secondary level, it’s hard to deny the overlap of success between Pebble Beach and TPC Southwind. Both tracks have exposure to the wind with water in play throughout and have rewarded players with a combination of accuracy off the tee and precision with mid-irons. Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Daniel Berger, and even Chez Reavie highlight the top 10 of course history at both courses.

Combine performance across this list, and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, JT Poston, and Eric Cole.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER WITH fedex st. Jude ODDS

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP / SG: Ball Striking
• Fairways Gained
• Opportunities Gained
• Scrambling Gained
• Prox 125-200
• SG: P (Bermuda) / SG: P (Firm & Fast greens)
• Par-4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
• Course & Comp Course History

Rather than overcomplicate the model here, I prefer to hone in on the players who enter in the best overall form. Over the last 12 rounds going into this week, the top-10 players in SG: T2G are Davis Thompson, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Aaron Rai, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Xander Schauffele, Robert MacIntyre, and Jhonattan Vegas. Just 10 players rank top 30 in SG: T2G and above-average to the field in SG: P on Bermuda greens: Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Davis Thompson, Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Victor Perez, Brian Harman, Maverick McNealy, Eric Cole, and Max Greyserman.

Approach play will remain a crucial stat this week on a golf course that has consistently rewarded trending ball strikers. The top 10 in SG: APP entering this week are Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Sepp Straka, Ludvig Aberg, Corey Conners, Rory McIlroy, Aaron Rai, Ben Griffin, and Collin Morikawa.

The firm and fast greens are a significant piece of TPC Southwind’s identity. We’ve seen players who excel in these particular conditions go on to find more repeated success at this course. The top 10 in SG: P (Firm & Fast Greens) are Ben Griffin, Nick Dunlap, Max Greyserman, Taylor Moore, Eric Cole, Brendon Todd, Emiliano Grillo, Justin Rose, Maverick McNealy, and Brian Harman.

The ideal player for this week should rank above average across weighted putting categories, SG: T2G, Fairways Gained, Scrambling Gained, and SG: APP. Only six players meet that criteria in this week’s field: Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Davis Thompson, Russell Henley, and Brian Harman.

Correlations

Looking at the correlation charts this week for TPC Southwind, Double Bogey Avoidance noticeably jumps into the top 10 most important stats. More than 5% of the field makes double or worse on three different holes, a side effect of the 11 holes where water hazards come into play.

We also see a larger than usual jump in the importance of SG: APP and SG: Short Game this week compared to TOUR average. Each of these categories enters the top 10. On the flip side, Par-5 Scoring, Par-3 Scoring and SG: OTT will be stats to deprioritize this week. They have proven far less consequential here than on TOUR average.

Only five players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, and Viktor Hovland.

Player Spotlight

Who is my featured player this week in FedEx St. Jude Championship odds? It’s a player looking for his first FedEx Cup Playoff event win.

2024 fedex st. jude CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.  

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Xander Schauffele
Ludvig Aberg
Rory McIlroy

Tier 2

Sungjae Im
Sam Burns
Viktor Hovland
Russell Henley
Sahith Theegala

Tier 3

Sepp Straka
Davis Thompson
Justin Thomas
Wyndham Clark
Billy Horschel

Tier 4

Ben Griffin
Eric Cole
JT Poston
Cam Davis

Tier 5

Max Greyserman

FedEx st. Jude CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Model Breakdown

In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: T2G, SG: APP, Comp Course History, Weighted Putting (L36, Bermuda, and Firm & Fast Conditions), followed by a more balanced mix of Fairways Gained, Prox 125-200 and Scrambling Gained.

Model Favorites

To no surprise, Scottie Scheffler remains the man to beat, according to my model this week. Fresh off a gold medal in Paris, Scheffler’s had himself a season for the record books, now up to seven victories on the year. If there’s one course you could say has Scottie’s number, however, it’s TPC Southwind, as Scheffler has failed to post a finish better than T14 over five prior appearances. I would not be surprised to see him win this week, but from an outright perspective, I will take my chances fading him.

After Scheffler, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Brian Harman, and Aaron Rai.

When odds open on Monday, I’ll look to center my card around Ludvig Aberg, Sam Burns, and Sungjae Im, depending where odds ultimately fall.

Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds!

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