2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on August 10, 2022
fedex st jude bets

The FedEx Cup Playoffs take center stage for the next three weeks. Not the quietest of news cycles this week, as LIV defectors Talor Gooch, Hudson Swafford, and Matt Jones were denied their appeal to play in these playoffs and Cameron Smith has reportedly accepted a $100M contract to join LIV, starting in Boston Labor Day weekend. With all that distraction, it does still shape up to be a “prove it” kind of week for the PGA TOUR loyalists to show fans around the world that competitive golf with actual stakes at hand is the most appealing product for both casual fans and those interested in FedEx St. Jude bets.

After a dry summer in Memphis, the skies have opened in the middle of the week, which should soften up the course slightly and create more favorable scoring conditions for the field. Even still, I’m expecting a good test from TPC Southwind, which will put a premium on all-around tee-to-green play, accuracy off the tee, and a comfortability on Bermuda greens. Below we’ll go through my final betting card for the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Click the odds anywhere in this article to bet the best available prices in your state now. 

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HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

The FedEx Cup Playoffs are a fairly new venture for the PGA TOUR, with stakes manufactured by dramatically increased purses. It has it’s fair share of flaws in rewarding a season-long winner (most notably the fact that a playoff event win is worth more points than two Major wins), but in any case, it produces an event in the FedEx St. Jude Championship that should capture the full attention of everyone in the field.

When we have a strong field in fairly difficult conditions and the full attention of all players, the cream does tend to rise to the top. So with that, I’ve built a shorter card than usual, prioritizing exposure to one of the top-5 favorites.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s the same old structure to kick off the playoffs.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

FEDEX ST. JUDE BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Justin Thomas

My Bet: +2200

Best Odds Still Available:

I really struggled with where to start my card this week, with so many elite names in solid form with decent course history floating around the 18 to 22-1 range. Ultimately, it was a 22-1 odds boost that won me over on Justin Thomas, but he is the name I’ve been leaning towards all week at the top of the board.

Thomas fits the narrative of local Florida residents who’ve found success on this all-Bermuda layout, as evidenced by his win in 2020. Over three career starts at TPC Southwind, Thomas has been as consistent as anyone else in this field, ranking No. 1 in SG: T2G on this course. His 2020 win came despite losing strokes putting, and it appears there’s more room for optimism with the flat stick in 2022, as he ranks No. 24 in SG: P over his last 36 rounds with Bones on the bag now. He’s left no doubt he can take down a loaded field after his PGA Championship victory earlier this season, and with a win at TPC Sawgrass last season, one of my favorite comps to TPC Southwind, there’s plenty to like about JT’s prospects to kickstart the playoffs.

Sam Burns

My Bet: +3500

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There was plenty of indecision throughout my outright card construction process this week, but the one easy call of the week was to start with Sam Burns at 35-1 odds. Burns rates out No. 1 in my model due to his elite putting metrics on Bermuda and Firm & Fast fast greens, as well as his top-10 ranks in SG: Ball Striking and Comp Course History. Three of his first four wins have come on comp courses in CC of Jackson and Innisbrook Resort, which share the commonality of prevalent Bermuda grass. While he’s not your prototypical fairway finder, he proved he possesses the right skillset to navigate this course, getting himself into the playoff at this event last year. Already a two-time winner on TOUR this season, I’m drawn to Burns in this spot to continue the momentum into the playoffs.

Collin Morikawa

My Bet: +4000

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Collin Morikawa was on everyone’s radar at the 2021 WGC FedEx St. Jude, making his first start since winning The Open, with top-5 finishes at the U.S. Open and the Memorial in the weeks before as well. He disappointed with a T26 finish, and his stock has continued to slip, still looking for his first win since the 2021 Open Championship. For the same reasons I loved Morikawa at THE PLAYERS earlier this year (before weather splits swept him from contention), I’m a believer in his fit for TPC Southwind as well, given the elite accuracy with both his driver and irons. While the results haven’t been up to his standards in 2022, it’s easy to forget that he fired the low round of the day twice at the U.S. Open, and would have been in prime position to notch another major on his resume if not for an abhorrent Saturday in tough afternoon conditions. For some reason, his odds have continued to drift even further over the course of the week, so I’m happy to jump on here as a value bet at 40-1 odds.

Billy Horschel

My Bet: +5500

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I anticipated Billy Horschel to open at 50-1 odds when writing him up as my spotlight feature of the week, so I’m happy to jump on the value of any longer odds here. Horschel is as big of an advocate as they come for the PGA TOUR, so we know the 2014 TOUR Champion will be plenty motivated to put on a show in the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. With five career top-10 finishes at this event, it’s no question that his game suits this style of play, and he now enters with some of the most consistent form off the tee of his career, gaining on the field in driving accuracy in all but one event in 2022.

Sahith Theegala

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

This is not the type of event you’re supposed to go crazy with longshot outright bombs at, but I really don’t consider a player like Theegala, who has already posted five top-10 finishes in his rookie season, to be a longshot type of player. He seems to relish the crowd energy, putting on his best performances in front of some of the biggest crowds of the season at the WM Phoenix Open, Travelers Championship, and The Open Championship, so I’m optimistic about his mentality going into this event, especially with his eyes set on qualifying for the BMW Championship the following week.

FEDEX ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Seamus Power

My Bet: +8000

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Seamus Power has shown solid history at TPC Southwind with top-30 finishes in his first two trips. He’s the type of player who can string along birdies in bunches, and enters this event in great form considering the long price.

Mito Pereira

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

It wouldn’t be a card of mine without Mito on it somewhere. I still believe his game isn’t far off despite the streak of four consecutive missed cuts, but I have some concerns about the many water hazards throughout this course. So, although I couldn’t get there on the outright, I still believe he can channel his opening round form at the Scottish Open and get himself off to a hot start at TPC Southwind.

Sahith Theegala

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

Sahith will let you know early if he’s going to be a contender or not, as his aggressive style of play sets him up well to generate ample birdie opportunities when his game is clicking. I like the course fit for Theegala this week, so I’m happy to double down on an FRL as well.

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Munoz was a winner at the Sanderson Farms just a few hundred miles south of here, so this is a positive vibes play for our boy who returns to familiar grounds while in solid overall form.

Maverick McNealy

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

McNealy is No. 1 in SG: P on Firm & Fast greens amongst the players in this week’s field, and while I don’t give him much of a chance to contend throughout this tournament amongst the world’s best, there’s no doubt he possesses the skillsets to go low at TPC Southwind.

FEDEX ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Matt Fitzpatrick

My Bet: +110

Best Odds Still Available:

The Matt Fitzpatrick top-20 bet has become one of the most sure things in golf this season, so it’s yet again my conviction bet of the week at plus-odds. His inability to reach double-digits under par has gone beyond a bit at this point, and it’s the reason I couldn’t pull the trigger on an outright, expecting a winning total around 14-under par. Still, his elite skillsets with the driver and putter should be all he needs to remain in contention over the next four days.

Top-20 Finish: Billy Horschel

My Bet: +200

Best Odds Still Available:

Similar to Fitzpatrick, I believe Horschel’s consistency both off-the-tee, on Firm & Fast Bermuda greens, and just around TPC Southwind in general should position him well as a fixture inside the top-20. With the added confidence coming off of a win at the Memorial and motivation for seeding in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, I expect Billy to bring his best stuff this week.

Top-20 Finish: Chez Reavie

My Bet: +490

Best Odds Still Available:

It feels gross to bet Chez Reavie in such a loaded field, but I can get behind him at these long top-20 odds. His course history at TPC Southwind is unmatched, and his strength in Driving Accuracy (No. 1 in the field) should position him well to attack this course. With newfound confidence after taking down the Barracuda Championship three starts ago, Reavie is trending in the right direction heading into the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

One And Done

My Pick: Billy Horschel

It’s the end of the season, and unfortunately, I’ll need a small miracle to find myself in the money after the next two weeks. So needing to go contrarian while most fixate on the best player available this late in the season, I’ll ride it out with Billy Horschel, understanding this is a comfort course for him, and one that should play into the strength of his current form.

If not Horschel, I would also consider Xander Schauffele, Shane Lowry, or Justin Thomas.

FEDEX ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for my 2022 FedEx St. Jude bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you on Monday for the 2022 BMW Championship preview.

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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