FCS National Championship Odds 2025: Montana State Bobcats Vs. North Dakota State Bison

On Jan. 8, 2022, green and yellow confetti rained down on Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, as North Dakota State players, coaches, and fans celebrated a ninth national championship. I was in the stands for that game and, later, on the field with the joyous crowd from Fargo. QB Tommy Mellott was also on the field for that game, but wearing blue and gold.

Three years later, Mellott and the Montana State Bobcats (15-0) will seek to avenge that 38-10 loss against the North Dakota State Bison (13-2) in the FCS national championship game. This time around, odds line Montana State a Montana State Bobcats -3 (-115) on Caesars favorite to win its first FCS championship since 1984.

Grab your favorite beverage and settle in to the 2025 FCS national championship on Monday, Jan. 6, starting at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

You can find odds on the remaining FBS College Football Playoff games here.

FCS National Championship Odds: Montana State Vs. North Dakota State

Click on odds in the table below to bet on the FCS national championship.

Montana State opened as a -2.5 favorite in this game and was quickly bet up through the key figure of -3. That move represents a 17% shift in expected win rate, the largest single figure in college football.

Catching Up On The FCS

FCS football doesn’t have the same visibility as FBS football. Typically, you have to dig through ESPN+ to find the broadcast. This year, FCS odds became more popular, and sportsbooks like FanDuel Sportsbook began releasing odds early in the week, as opposed to hours before kickoff. But if you’ve missed the wild action that is the FCS playoffs on main network ESPN, well, that’s on you.

The dominant run of South Dakota State ended this season — the Jackrabbits were eliminated in Fargo in the semifinal round, losing a 28-21 thriller to North Dakota State. Previously, South Dakota State was the dominant force in the FCS, power rating better than several Power Conference teams the last two seasons. But with the swath of departures to the NFL and a couple of head coaches moving on to bigger jobs, it appears South Dakota State’s run is over. For now, at least.

South Dakota State overtook the powerhouse moniker from North Dakota State, which had a ridiculous run of nine titles in 13 years. And now the Bison are back, seeking to extend their leading number of FCS titles to 10.

But Montana State managed to put together a dominant roster just in time to, perhaps, bridge the gap and capture the program’s second national championship.

Montana State Bobcats Team Preview

Mellott is the staple of this roster, winning the Walter Camp FCS National Player of the Year. A truly dynamic athlete, “Touchdown Tommy” receives most of the attention for his powerful and agile running ability, but the senior also threw 29 touchdowns against just two interceptions this season. His 180+ passing efficiency leads the FCS.

Joining Mellott in the backfield is a pair of young phenoms: sophomore Scottre Humphrey (1,360 yards, 15 touchdowns) and freshman Adam Jones (1,114 yards, 14 touchdowns). Together, there may not be a better trio of runners at any division of college football. Montana State’s 301 rushing yards per game puts it among just seven programs in any division (excluding NAIA and JUCO) to average 300+ yards on the ground.

Up front, the Montana State offensive line is as talented as you’ll find in the FCS. Though the threat of a dynamic run game, creative RPO offense, and escapability of Mellott bring the number of QB pressures down, the offensive line allowed just 71 pressures on Mellott all season long. In the last two playoff games, South Dakota and Idaho — two of the FCS’ better pass rushes — managed just five pressures apiece. More than half of Humphrey, Jones, and Mellott’s rushing yardage came before contact this season.

Just two FCS teams broke 17 against Montana State’s defense all season, neither of which came in the postseason. Stud defensive lineman Brody Grebe earned second-team All-America honors and played particularly well in big games against UC Davis (seven QB pressures), UT-Martin (five pressures and a sack), and South Dakota (three pressures, a sack, and another QB hit).

Key stat: No team has possessed the ball with a chance to take a fourth-quarter lead on Montana State since Week 0 against FBS New Mexico.

Credit: ESPN’s Bill Connelly

North Dakota State Bison Team Preview

North Dakota State finished six total points away from joining Montana State as the lone unbeaten team in Division I this year. But those six total points resulted in two losses, one of which came at Colorado to open the season. Dynamic play from QB Cam Miller kept NDSU in that game and, eventually, earned Miller second-team All-America honors behind Mellott. The other loss came in the regular season finale. In a truly wild ending, South Dakota upended NDSU, 29-28, with a touchdown with just 12 seconds left. The win probability chart is truly something to behold.

The Bisons’ truly impressive mark on the year was upending South Dakota State not once but twice. That includes the aforementioned semifinal showdown to reach Frisco.

Like its opponent, NDSU features a dominant ground game — three players surpassed 500 yards this season — and ultra-efficient quarterback play. Miller finished with 31 touchdown passes to just four interceptions and added 510 yards on the ground, plus 10 additional touchdowns. He excels at improvising outside the pocket and has made a career off extending plays and escaping complete disaster. NDSU features a dynamic freshman of its own, CharMar Brown (1,104 yards, 14 rushing touchdowns). Junior Barika Kpeenu adds over 700 yards and seven touchdowns.

Junior Bryce Lance (brother of NDSU great Trey) is the best receiver in this game, scoring 16 touchdowns on just 66 receptions and accruing over 900 yards this season.

While NDSU’s defense is still among the FCS’ best, the unit has allowed points to better offenses. Twice FCS teams scored 30+ (Abilene Christian, East Tennessee State), and six opponents scored 20+ (a feat only three opponents achieved against MSU). Good rushing attacks found success against this stop unit. When the NDSU defensive front can’t dominate the trenches, second-level yards pile up.

Key stat: Bryce Lance scored three touchdowns on six receptions (seven targets) against South Dakota State. He was targeted an average 19.4 yards downfield, second-best on the season.

FCS Championship Preview: North Dakota State Vs. Montana State

For fans of exciting quarterback play and exceptional rushing attacks, this game is for you. Mellott and Miller are both extremely efficient passers and dynamic athletes. Both ground games are capable of 300+ yards even against stout defenses. However, the two teams take different approaches to an otherwise-similar game plan.

Montana State’s offense runs a unique RPO-based offense installed by former OC Taylor Housewright. Now, Tyler Walker (a disciple of Housewright) conducts the offense with a wealth of talent. Strong perimeter blocking and schemes to get the ball behind that perimeter blocking are the name of the game. Most passing stems off the threat of the run, and Mellott isn’t afraid to throw the ball downfield. The trio of Mellott, Jones, and Humphreys makes for a home run threat every play.

This season, NDSU transitioned away from two-back and under-center looks to a more spread offense with plenty of empty. Contrary to other teams that air the ball out in the five-wide empty set, the Bison utilize it as both a passing and rushing formation for Miller. When the offensive line held up for South Dakota against Montana State, the Coyotes were able to move the ball with spread and empty sets. Thanks to anchor left tackle Grey Zabel, a highly regarded NFL prospect, NDSU’s offensive line should be able to mitigate Montana State’s pass rush.

I expect NDSU to perhaps utilize more empty sets to thin the box and use Miller plenty in the run game. That scheme could cause issues for an otherwise stout Montana State defense.

This season, Montana State’s defense allowed just a 32% conversion rate on third down. North Dakota State’s offense converted 53.7% of third downs, third-best in the country.

Picking FCS Championship Odds

The difference in championship games often comes down to two factors: turnovers and the ability to finish drives. Neither team turns the ball over all that often, so I’m turning to finishing drives.

Nobody in Division I converts red zone trips into scores as well as Montana State. The Bobcats scored touchdowns on 82.6% of all red zone trips this year, including a ridiculous 62% rushing touchdown conversion rate inside the 20. In total, nearly 97% of Montana State’s red zone trips resulted in at least three points. Few teams in the FCS allowed fewer red zone trips than North Dakota State. But if the Bobcats do find possessions inside the opposing 20-yard line, you can pretty much pencil in six points and sharpie in three.

One of those teams to allow fewer red zone trips than NDSU is its opponent in this game. Just 26 times did opponents score in the red zone against the Bobcats and only six times on the ground (fourth-fewest, 17.6% conversion rate). Conversely, teams more easily converted rushing touchdowns in the same area against NDSU (13, 34% conversion rate).

And on third down, only two teams best NDSU’s near-54% — one of those is Montana State at 55.7% (versus NDSU’s surprisingly mediocre 42% allowed, 81st in the FBS). When Montana State gets the football, it simply doesn’t give it back until it scores.

This Montana State team is downright stacked in every facet of the game. Therefore, I’m taking Montana State -3 (-115) and to win its second national championship.

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