FC Porto Vs. Inter: 2022-23 Champions League Round Of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on March 14, 2023
champions league odds

FC Porto and Inter continue the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 on Tuesday, March 14. The match begins at 4:00 p.m. ET and will be broadcast streaming platforms including fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. Inter hold a 3-0-1 lead over FC Porto in their last four Champions League meetings. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

FC Porto Vs. Inter Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

FC Porto Team Preview

After giving a good account of themselves in the San Siro for the first 75 minutes of their meeting with Inter Milan, things fell apart for Porto in the final 15. A red card for Otavio was followed by a late winning goal from Inter Milan’s Romelu Lukaku. In fairness to Sergio Conceicao’s men, that 1-0 defeat could definitely have been avoided. Although the loss will have rankled straight after the final whistle, the Portuguese outfit will be confident of a reversal of fortune midweek.

Porto has home advantage here and they look to punish Inter for their ability to not kill the tie in the first leg. It may be a one-goal deficit to overturn, but those quickly disappear in no time at all.

Going into this game, Porto finds themselves a considerable distance behind Benfica in the league table. Benfica already qualified for this season’s Champions League quarterfinals and a second Portuguese representative may not be far away.

Due to such a sizable gap between Benfica and Porto at the top, there may be a private resignation that the title race has already been won by Beneficia. Therefore, further focus can be applied by Porto.

This is why I would be remiss to rule out Porto on Tuesday night. They were certainly nothing special a couple weeks ago and it will not need anything extra special to dump them out, either.

Inter Team Preview

Inter may have that 1-0 lead to take to Portugal, but the question is whether they can maintain it by the time they return to Italy. They may have won at the San Siro but Otavio’s red card for Porto undoubtedly changed the complexion of the game.

Simone Inzaghi’s men certainly profited from the numerical advantage on the pitch and converted it into a numerical advantage on the scoreboard. Had it been 11 versus 11 for the full 90 minutes, then parity would have likely been the final outcome.

But, such a scenario is nothing more than moot. It is Inter who are in the ascendency here and now they will look to complete the task in hand. That task is simple as making progress to this season’s Champions League quarterfinals. A simple task, but one that could be more difficult to achieve. With just that one goal lead to take to the Estadio do Dragao, there is a nagging feeling that perhaps Inter needed to do more to make sure of eventual progress.

We have already seen Borussia Dortmund give up the same size lead on the road and exit the competition soon after. With no away goals rule in play, the blue and black half of Milan may need to find the net on their travels.

With this tie being so neatly poised, do not be surprised if extra time and maybe even penalties are required to find a winner. Should that be the case, Inter may further regret their litany of first-leg missed chances. 

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the Round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

FC Porto vs. Inter Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.


Matchup History

Inter vs FC Porto previously crossed paths in the Champions League five times. The Italian outfit won three and drawn one. Inter’s slender 1-0 win at the San Siro gave them the advantage, but it is still all to play for. With Inter managing to pick up a 1-1 draw in Porto, they would then secure progress to the quarterfinals with a 3-1 second-leg win in Italy.

The following season, the two teams met again in the group stage. Both outfits would win on home soil, as Inter did enough to move on to the knockout phase. However, Porto’s progress would not go any further as they finished bottom of the table.

FC Porto vs. Inter Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Porto to win +175

As we saw with Borussia Dortmund earlier in the week, a one-goal advantage can be a dangerous position to find yourself in. Inter takes that advantage to Portugal on Tuesday.

After recording a 1-0 win at the San Siro, manager Simone Inzaghi hopes that spurned chances do not come back to haunt him and his players. Especially since the Estadio do Dragao is never a hospitable place to go to. With the roar of the Porto crowd being just as noisy as what Inter’s own home supporters can muster up, there is no doubt that this tie is rather neatly balanced. The Italians may have the lead for now but that can disappear in an instant.

Porto may only need to score once to keep the tie alive. If they can keep their own backdoor closed, things will only serve to become even more interesting – interest that may extend to at least 30 more minutes and maybe even penalties.

While it is important to note that with this tip, I am backing Porto to win in regulation time. If they win by just a one-goal margin, say 1-0 or 2-1, then those extra minutes will be required.

But at the same time, I am not necessarily hanging my hat on Porto to advance. They may register one of those two scores above and still eventually lose in one of the two tiebreakers that could follow. Therefore, just be careful as to what market you choose.

Halftime 0-0 +200

To be honest, I think this game could be just as tight as what we saw in the first leg. A goal was the difference in Italy and a goal could just as likely be the difference in Portugal.

Therefore, this encounter may prove to be a rather cagey affair. Inter know that a draw would do in terms of making further progress in this season’s Champions League, but they also know that to play for a draw is a massive risk. Their plan may well see Inter try to contain Porto in the first 45 minutes and then grow further into the game after the interval. If they can withstand the hosts’ attack, then this could convert into frustrations in the stands.

This is why I have opted for a stalemate in the first half. Inter just have to make sure they keep hold of their advantage early on and Porto have to make sure that they are not out of the tie altogether.

A balancing act rewards who rolls the dice first, but such a roll is unlikely to come before the teams return for the second half. As long it is goalless by the time the referee orders the two sides into the dressing rooms for a break, then we have reason to celebrate.

Of course, we could have further reason to celebrate. If Porto then finds that extra gear and dissipates the potential frustration from the stands into elation instead. The game will be finely poised and so are my two tips.

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