2024 Farmers Insurance Open Preview: Everything You Need To Know About Torrey Pines
It’s another week of golf action on the PGA TOUR. The next stop is the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Compare Farmers Insurance Open odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA TOUR golf betting payouts. Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, and Xander Schauffele project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
Next stop, San Diego. The PGA TOUR leaves putting contests behind and heads to one of the more storied championship golf courses in the United States. Torrey Pines’ North and South courses host the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open. Below, we’ll look at Farmers Insurance Open odds and preview the two courses.
Torrey Pines’ South course – which hosts three of the four rounds this week – is one of the longest setups on TOUR, measuring over 7,700 yards. Distance alone gives this event the feel of a Major Championship. Its leaderboard over the years has been reminiscent of the same. A combination of Driving Distance, Proximity from 200+ yards, top-tier short game, and scoring in difficult comp conditions will be crucial this week. This serves as a nice contrast from the birdie-fests we’ve followed over the last two months.
Here’s a look at everything you can expect at the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Click on odds anywhere to bet now.
2024 OPENING FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN ODDS: THE FAVORITES
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THE FIELD AT A GLANCE
The field of 156 is set. Like always, it is the premiere full-field event to kick off the new year. While not designated as a Signature Event, the stars are out in San Diego; 12 of the OWGR top-30 come to tee it up at Torrey Pines.
San Diego native Xander Schauffele is the highest-ranked player in the field this week. Yet again, he comes home with expectations to win. Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, Tony Finau, and Collin Morikawa headline a decorated list of stars in this week’s field.
Homa is back to defend his 2023 title. He’s joined by a list of past winners, including Luke List, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker, and Scott Stallings.
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INTRODUCTION TO TORREY PINES NORTH & SOUTH COURSES
This week, we’re back to a two-course rotation between the North and South courses on Wednesday and Thursday. You read that correctly: for the third year in a row, the PGA TOUR elected to move play one day earlier, avoiding a head-to-head with the NFL’s Conference Championship games on Sunday.
After the standard 36-hole cut, the top 65 play Friday and Saturday on the South Course. ShotLink is only equipped on the South Course, so any historical Strokes Gained (SG) data at The Farmers only goes as far as the South Course. We’ll reference the 2021 U.S. Open this week, as all four rounds were played on a more difficult version of the South Course that year.
How It Breaks Down
The South Course is heavily concentrated, with seven par-4s measuring over 450 yards. It also features three par-3s over 200 yards and two par-5s over 600 yards, all reminiscent of a classic Major Championship venue. This places significant emphasis on long-iron approaches from beyond 200 yards, with about one-third of approach shots coming from this distance.
The par-5s on the South Course are the only four holes that feature a scoring average below par. Players need to be prepared to grind for pars and take advantage of rare scoring opportunities that come from the par-5s.
On the North Course, 10 holes average a score below par, including two short par-5s with a Birdie-or-Better rate of nearly 60%.
For Torrey Pines course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past Farmers Insurance Open winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our Farmers Insurance Open odds page.
Course History & Comp Courses
Those who have California ties have started to become trendy plays on Torrey Pines’ familiar Poa greens. Max Homa is the most recent example, winning in front of a “home” crowd in 2023 after contending with two prior top-20 finishes. Jon Rahm was the former king of Torrey Pines, having won both the Farmers Insurance Open and U.S. Open, so the field breathes a collective sigh of relief with the Spaniard having since fled to LIV.
This will be another week to consider chasing course history. There are 11 players who have posted multiple T15 finishes over the last five years: Tony Finau, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Luke List, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris, Billy Horschel, and Sam Ryder.
Only six players avoided missing the cut over the last five years (min. three appearances): Sungjae Im, Luke List, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, Joseph Bramlett, and Robby Shelton.
The top 10 players in this field in terms of total strokes gained at Torrey Pines are Brandt Snedeker, Jason Day, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, Stewart Cink, Justin Rose, Justin Thomas, Luke List, and Stephan Jaeger.
Although course history has proven to be repeatable, debutants are not limited from finding success here. Erik Barnes, Sam Stevens, and SH Kim were each impressive with top-20 finishes in their debuts in 2023.
The identity of the Torrey Pines South Course lies primarily in its length. It offers a unique combination of narrow fairways; thick, penal rough; and firm, hard to hold Poa greens. It’s no surprise the South course hosted the U.S. Open in 2021 – these are foundational characteristics of a modern Major Championship venue.
Given the recent stretch of birdie fests, I’m weighing more emphasis on performance in comp difficult conditions to refine my player pool this week. I am comfortable overlooking some recent results if a player profiles well on a course that favors driving distance, long iron play, and short game, particularly on West Coast Poa greens.
Starting with recent Major venues, Bethpage Black, Winged Foot, TPC Harding Park, Quail Hollow, The Ocean Course, Oak Hill, and Los Angeles Country Club most feature the common characteristics of yardage, penal rough, and difficult-to-hold green complexes that put an emphasis on top-tier touch around the greens. TPC Harding Park and LACC get an added bump for also being played in California.
From an agronomy standpoint, Riviera CC and Golf Club de Chapultepec share the most in common with Torrey Pines. They both feature West Coast Poa greens, thick rough, difficult overall scoring conditions, and overlapping success from players like Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, and Patrick Reed.
Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, and Olympia Fields each also share an advantage to longer hitters, difficult scoring conditions, and a high volume of approach shots from the rough.
The top 10 players in SG: TOT at these comp courses are Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Will Zalatoris, Sungjae Im, Harris English, Tony Finau, Sahith Theegala, and Justin Thomas. It’s not that surprising to see this group filled with perennial Major winners and contenders.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2024 FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN ODDS
- Driving Distance / SG: OTT
- SG: APP
- SG: Short Game / Scrambling Gained
- Prox: 200+
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 4: 450-500
- Par 5: 550-600
- SG: P (Poa)
- Course & Comp Course History
We have seen players who lack distance still find success here. However, sacrificing distance to the field on a 7,765-yard course puts enormous pressure on their short game, especially if the course goes on to play as soft as it’s expected to. I’m looking to hone in on players who are at least above average in Driving Distance this week.
We’ll also see a premium on scoring in the P4: 450-500 and P5: 550-600 ranges and an emphasis on Proximity 200+. Over 33% of approach shots at Torrey Pines come from at least 200 yards out. Six players rank in the top 50 in each of these distance metrics: Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, Luke List, Jhonattan Vegas, Adam Svensson, and Taylor Pendrith.
The ideal blueprint for success here is to hit it long and accurately off the tee. However, added importance is on a strong short game, particularly on Poa. Eight players rank above average in Driving Distance, SG: OTT, Scrambling, SG: Short Game, and SG: Putting (Poa): Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Ludvig Aberg, Min Woo Lee, Erik Barnes, SH Kim, Beau Hossler, and Alejandro Tosti.
Importance In Putting
Poa putting is of particular importance this week. We usually only get to see these distinctly bumpy and imperfect greens during the California swing, favoring locals. Year after year, Torrey Pines proves to be the most difficult course on TOUR to hit putts inside 15 feet. Identifying players who are most comfortable on Poa greens is crucial. The top 10 Poa putters in this week’s field are Max Homa, Maverick McNealy, Peter Malnati, Justin Suh, Rafael Campos, Xander Schauffele, Daniel Berger, Chesson Hadley, Harris English, and Brandt Snedeker.
The ideal player this week should rank well in terms of Season Form, Comp Course History, and performance in comp conditions (7,400+ course length, Difficult Scoring, and Thick Rough), along with the prerequisites Driving Distance and long-range approach prowess. Just nine players rank above average in each of those categories: Xander Schauffele, Taylor Pendrith, Luke List, Sahith Theegala, Justin Thomas, Erik Barnes, Keegan Bradley, Shane Lowry, and Tony Finau.
Looking at the top correlated stats for this week, SG: APP, SG: Short Game, and P5: 550-600 make the most notable jump inside the top 10 at the Farmers Insurance Open. The importance of Par-3 Scoring and SG: OTT is relatively less at this event than the TOUR average. Across the board, Distance and Short Game stats like Prox 200+, Driving Distance, SG: ARG, and 3-Putt Avoidance saw the largest jump in importance compared to the TOUR average, while Fairways Gained saw the least correlation with success.
Just seven players rank above average in all 10 categories: Xander Schauffele, Taylor Pendrith, Luke List, Sahith Theegala, Justin Thomas, Davis Thompson, and Michael Kim.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Min Woo Lee
A trendy preseason pick for breakout player of the year, the 25-year-old proved early on to be a big game hunter. He possesses mind-boggling club speed and the distance needed to take down long and difficult venues like Torrey Pines. Lee first turned heads in his Masters debut in 2022, where he finished T14. In eight career major starts since, he continued to impress on the most difficult stages, piling up four top-30 finishes. His best result at a Major came in California at the 2023 U.S. Open at LACC, proving he is apt to handle a long course with imperfect greens.
Though set to make his debut at Torrey Pines, the young Australian showed he can pick up new courses quickly. He’s already collected four international victories over his first four full years as a pro. That includes two victories over his last five starts between the DP World Tour and Asian Tour.
Torrey Pines’ long and linear layout is susceptible to the bomb-and-gouge approach. Players who leave themselves short, more lofted clubs on approach stand the best chance to hold greens in regulation. That’s an ideal setup for a player like Lee, who ranks top-10 in Driving Distance, Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling Gained, and SG: Putting.
It’s going to be fun to track Lee’s first full year on TOUR. I’ll be ready to back the fresh Lululemon ambassador with expected odds of 20-1 or longer.
2024 FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN: DFS PLAYER POOL
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.
UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS
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Min Woo Lee
MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN
For my model in Fantasy National this week, I’m prioritizing Course & Comp Course History, SG: APP, SG: ARG, Driving Distance, and SG: T2G (Comp Difficult Conditions), followed by a more balanced mix of Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling Gained, Prox: 200+, Par 4: 450-500, SG: P (Poa), and Par-5 Scoring.
Xander Schauffele claims No. 1 honors in the model. The San Diego hometown narrative doesn’t have the same allure as in past years, considering he’s since moved to Florida and enters in a bit of a winning draught. That said, he looked to be in his usual elite form at The AmEx last week so assuming no further setbacks, he is expected to contend at home this week.
After Schauffele, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Taylor Pendrith, Luke List, Stephan Jaeger, Patrick Cantlay, Sahith Theegala, Ludvig Aberg, Daniel Berger, Min Woo Lee, and Adam Svensson.
When Farmers Insurance Open odds are released Monday, I’ll look to have exposure to multiple favorites at the top of the betting board, understanding a very specific type of well-rounded player tends to contend at this event year over year. I have my eye on Ludvig Aberg, Min Woo Lee, Justin Thomas, and Max Homa at the top of the board but will keep a close eye on where the odds drop.
Thanks for reading, and good luck navigating 2024 Farmers Insurance Open odds!
2024 Farmers Insurance Open Tee Times
2024 Farmers Insurance Open ODDS COMPARISON TABLE
Check back Monday for Farmers Insurance Open odds.