2025 Farmers Insurance Open Preview: Everything To Know About Torrey Pines

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
Farmers Insurance open odds

It’s another week of golf action on the PGA Tour. The next stop is the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Compare Farmers Insurance Open odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, and Keegan Bradley project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

Next stop, San Diego. The PGA Tour leaves putting contests behind and heads to one of the more storied championship golf courses in the United States. Torrey Pines North and South courses host the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open. Below, we’ll look at Farmers Insurance Open odds and preview the two courses.

The Torrey Pines South course — which hosts three of the four rounds this week — is one of the longest setups on tour, measuring over 7,700 yards. Distance alone gives this event the feel of a major championship. Its leaderboard over the years has been reminiscent of the same. A combination of driving distance, proximity from 200+ yards, top-tier short game, and scoring in difficult comp conditions will be crucial this week. This serves as a nice contrast to the birdie-fests we’ve followed over the last two months.

Here’s a look at everything you can expect at the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Click on odds anywhere to bet now.

2025 OPENING FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Find players with odds shorter than 20-1 when odds open Monday morning. Scroll to the bottom to compare complete outright odds across major sportsbooks in your state.

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

The field of 156 is set. While not designated as a signature event, the stars are out in San Diego — 11 of the OWGR top 30 tee off at Torrey Pines.

The two best players in the world of golf at the moment — Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele — will both be absent this week as they continue to recover from injuries. Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, and Tommy Fleetwood round out the list of top PGA Tour players who have opted against competing in this historic event this week.

Instead, Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg, Sahith Theegala, Sungjae Im, and Keegan Bradley will represent the list of headliners in this week’s field.

Matthieu Pavon returns to defend his title after securing one of the most surprising wins on tour in his rookie season. He’s joined by a list of past winners that includes Max Homa, Luke List, Justin Rose, Jason Day, and Brandt Snedeker.

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INTRODUCTION TO TORREY PINES NORTH & SOUTH COURSES

This week, we’re back to a two-course rotation between the North and South courses on Wednesday and Thursday. You read that correctly: for the fourth year in a row, the PGA Tour elected to move play one day earlier, avoiding a head-to-head with the NFL playoffs on Sunday.

After the standard 36-hole cut, the top 65 play Friday and Saturday on the South Course. ShotLink is only equipped on the South Course, so any historical strokes gained (SG) data at the Farmers only goes as far as the South Course. We’ll reference the 2021 US Open this week, as all four rounds were played on a more difficult version of the South Course that year.

How It Breaks Down

The South Course is heavily concentrated, with seven par 4s measuring over 450 yards. It also features three par 3s over 200 yards and two par 5s over 600 yards, all reminiscent of a classic major championship venue. This places significant emphasis on long-iron approaches from beyond 200 yards. About one-third of approach shots come from this distance.

The par 5s on the South Course are the only four holes that feature a scoring average below par. Players must grind for pars and take advantage of rare scoring opportunities that come from the par 5s.

On the North Course, 10 holes average a score below par, including two short par 5s with a birdie-or-better rate of nearly 60%.

Course History & Comp Courses

Those who have California ties have started to become trendy plays on Torrey Pines’ familiar Poa greens. Max Homa is the most recent example, winning in front of a “home” crowd in 2023 after contending with two prior top-20 finishes. Jon Rahm was the former king of Torrey Pines, having won both the Farmers Insurance Open and US Open. The field breathes a collective sigh of relief, with the Spaniard having since fled to LIV.

This will be another week to consider chasing course history. Over the last five years, 11 players have posted multiple T15 finishes: Tony Finau, Jason Day, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Luke List, Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris, Beau Hossler, Patrick Rodgers, Taylor Montgomery, and Sam Ryder.

Just 11 players have avoided missing the cut over the last five years (min. three appearances): Sungjae Im, Luke List, Taylor Pendrith, Michael Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, Joseph Bramlett, Aaron Rai, Sahith Theegala, Kevin Streelman, and Ryan Palmer.

The top 10 players in this field in terms of total strokes gained at Torrey Pines are Tony Finau, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, Ryan Palmer, Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, Will Zalatoris, Max Homa, Brandt Snedeker, and Sungjae Im.

Although course history has proven repeatable, debutants are not immune to finding success here. In addition to Matthieu Pavon’s surprise win in 2024, Erik Barnes, Sam Stevens, and SH Kim each had impressive top-20 finishes in their debuts in 2023.

Comp Courses

The identity of the Torrey Pines South lies primarily in its length. It offers a unique combination of narrow fairways, thick and penal rough, and firm, hard-to-hold Poa greens. It’s no surprise the South Course hosted the US Open in 2021. These are foundational characteristics of a modern major venue.

Given the recent stretch of birdie fests, I’m weighing more emphasis on performance in comp difficult conditions to refine my player pool this week. I am comfortable overlooking some recent results if a player profiles well on a course that favors driving distance, long iron play, and short game, particularly on West Coast Poa greens.

Starting with recent major venues, Bethpage Black, Winged Foot, TPC Harding Park, Quail Hollow, The Ocean Course, Oak Hill, and Los Angeles Country Club most feature the common characteristics of yardage, penal rough, and difficult-to-hold green complexes that put an emphasis on top-tier touch around the greens. TPC Harding Park and LACC get an added bump as California locations.

From an agronomy standpoint, Riviera CC and Golf Club de Chapultepec share the most in common with Torrey Pines. They both feature West Coast Poa greens, thick rough, difficult overall scoring conditions, and overlapping success from players like Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, and Patrick Reed.

Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, and Olympia Fields each also share an advantage to longer hitters, difficult scoring conditions, and a high volume of approach shots from the rough.

The top 10 players in SG: TOT at these comp courses are Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Sungjae Im, Harris English, Ludvig Aberg, Shane Lowry, Sahith Theegala, and Jason Day. It’s not that surprising to see this group filled with perennial major winners and contenders.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2025 FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN ODDS

  • Driving distance / SG: OTT
  • SG: APP
  • SG: short game / scrambling gained
  • Prox: 200+
  • Bogey avoidance
  • Par 4: 450-500
  • Par 5: 550-600
  • SG: P (Poa)
  • Course & comp course history

We have seen players who lack distance still find success here. However, sacrificing distance to the field on a 7,765-yard course puts enormous pressure on their short game, especially if the course goes on to play as soft as it’s expected to. I’m looking to hone in on players who are at least above average in driving distance this week.

We’ll also see a premium on scoring in the P4: 450-500 and P5: 550-600 ranges and an emphasis on proximity 200+. Over 33% of approach shots at Torrey Pines come from at least 200 yards out. Five players rank in the top 50 in each of these distance metrics: Hideki Matsuyama, Harris English, Andrew Putnam, Aaron Rai, and Doug Ghim.

The ideal blueprint for success here is to hit it long and accurately off the tee. However, added importance is on a strong short game, particularly on Poa. Five players rank above average in driving distance, SG: OTT, scrambling, SG: short game, and SG: putting (Poa): Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Austin Eckroat, Maverick McNealy, and Matti Schmid.

Importance In Putting

Poa putting is of particular importance this week. We usually only get to see these distinctly bumpy and imperfect greens during the California swing, favoring locals. Year after year, Torrey Pines proves to be the most difficult course on tour to hit putts inside 15 feet. Identifying players who are most comfortable on Poa greens is crucial. The top 10 Poa putters in this week’s field are Taylor Montgomery, Max Homa, Will Gordon, Peter Malnati, Lanto Griffin, Jason Day, Mackenzie Hughes, Maverick McNealy, Adam Schenk, and Matthieu Pavon.

The ideal player this week should rank well in terms of season form, comp course history, and performance in comp conditions (7,400+ course length, difficult scoring, and thick rough), along with the prerequisites driving distance and long-range approach prowess. Just six players rank above average in each of those categories: Hideki Matsuyama, Maverick McNealy, Sungjae Im, Joseph Bramlett, Keegan Bradley, and Tony Finau.

Correlated Stats

Looking at the top correlated stats for this week, SG: APP, SG: short game, and P5: 550-600 make the most notable jump inside the top 10 at the Farmers Insurance Open. The importance of par-3 scoring and SG: OTT is relatively less at this event than the tour average. Across the board, distance and short game stats like prox 200+, driving distance, SG: ARG, and three-putt avoidance saw the largest jump in importance compared to the tour average, while fairways gained saw the least correlation with success.

Top 10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT
Top 10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT at Torrey Pines (South)

Just six players rank above average in all 10 categories: Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Keegan Bradley, Doug Ghim, Maverick McNealy, and Joseph Bramlett.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: ludvig aberg

I don’t normally use the spotlight feature in these articles to highlight one of the favorites, as the case for such a player to contend goes without saying. Ludvig Aberg’s fit at Torrey Pines, however, is so perfect that I’ve essentially cemented him onto my Farmers Insurance Open card regardless of his odds for years to come.

A generational ball-striker who can hit towering bombs on a line off the tee and sky his long irons like no other player on the PGA Tour, it’s the gargantuan courses like Torrey Pines that give Aberg his greatest edge over the rest of the field. Aberg put that fit on display in his Farmers Insurance Open debut this time last year, finishing T9 and ranking top five in the field SG: ball striking.

After a brief stint away over the fall to recover from meniscus surgery, Aberg is all systems go again, impressing with a T5 finish in his first start of the year at the Sentry. Ranking No. 3 in my model this week, Aberg will be a fixture on my betting card regardless of his odds. I expect him to hoist the trophy come Saturday.

2025 FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKING TIERS

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Tier 1

Ludvig Aberg
Hideki Matsuyama

Tier 2

Tony Finau
Sungjae Im
Keegan Bradley
Sahith Theegala
Will Zalatoris

Tier 3

Taylor Pendrith
Aaron Rai
Austin Eckroat
Maverick McNealy
Harris English
Jason Day

Tier 4

Matt Schmid
Doug Ghim
Justin Rose
Beau Hossler

Tier 5

Taylor Montgomery
Joseph Bramlett
Michael Kim
Patrick Rodgers
Sam Ryder

MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

For my model this week, I’m prioritizing course and comp course history, SG: APP, SG: ARG, driving distance, and SG: T2G (comp difficult conditions), followed by a more balanced mix of bogey avoidance, scrambling gained, prox: 200+, par 4: 450-500, SG: P (Poa), and par-5 scoring.

Model Favorites

Hideki Matsuyama claims No. 1 honors in the model. He tops the field in nearly every comp conditions category, whether it be SG: T2G on long courses, SG: TOT in difficult conditions, or comp course history. He started his year out with a bang by breaking the PGA Tour scoring record at the Sentry and is always a threat to win when looking healthy.

After Matsuyama, my model’s top tier is rounded out by Sungjae Im, Ludvig Aberg, Maverick McNealy, Doug Ghim, Joseph Bramlett, Daniel Berger, Taylor Pendrith, and Keegan Bradley.

When Farmers Insurance Open odds are released on Monday, I’ll begin my card with Ludvig Aberg. Then, I’ll look to round it out with players like Taylor Pendrith, Maverick McNealy, and Joseph Bramlett, depending on how short Aberg ultimately opens.

Thanks for reading, and good luck navigating 2025 Farmers Insurance Open odds!

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