2023 Farmers Insurance Open Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card

Written By John Haslbauer on January 24, 2023
farmers insurance open bets

Get those golf wagers in earlier than usual for Farmers Insurance Open bets! We’re off to a Wednesday start in San Diego this week, as the tournament ends Saturday to avoid competing with the NFL. The iconic venue of Torrey Pines’ North and South courses is always a treat to watch, with many big names headlining the field, including none other than Jon Rahm, the hottest golfer on planet earth at the moment. He’s not on this betting card given his un-bettable price, so we’ll keep our fingers crossed that he can do exactly what he’s done in each of his last five Farmers Insurance Open appearances: not win!

Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my Farmers Insurance Open previewClick the odds anywhere in this article to place Farmers Insurance Open bets at the best available prices in your state now. 

HOW I BUILT MY FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN BETTING CARD

The approach to filling out a betting card at Torrey Pines was pretty simple for me this week, as I looked to prioritize players with above-average driving distance, a proven track record in difficult scoring conditions, and a reliable short game, particularly on California Poa set ups. The cream always tends to rise to the top at this event, so I built a shorter outright betting card with exposure to multiple elite talents with proven prior history at the Farmers Insurance Open.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it is the same unit structure for the Farmers Insurance Open.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below for Farmers Insurance Open bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.

FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Tony Finau

My Bet: +1500

Best Odds Still Available:

If it weren’t for Jon Rahm, we may have still been talking about Tony Finau as the hottest player on earth at the moment. Over his last nine starts, Finau has picked up three wins to go along with three additional top-10 finishes. It’s little surprise to see Finau rank No. 1 in both SG: T2G and SG: Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds, but a resurgence on the greens has been the difference in Finau’s evolution as a closer. He’s gained strokes putting in each of his last nine measured starts and ranks No. 3 in the field in SG: Short Game.

Like Rahm, Finau’s most repeatable course history has come at Torrey Pines, finishing top-6 in four of his last six appearances. Now entering in the best form of his career, the stars may be aligning for Finau to finally convert a victory at Torrey Pines.

Max Homa

My Bet: +2600

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s always a good idea to back Max Homa in the state of California, as the local from Los Angeles has picked up three victories over the last two years in this state. The formula for repeated success here has been with the flat stick, as Homa has appeared to master Poa greens, ranking No. 7 in SG: P (Poa). He is the only player in the field this week to rank top-40 in SG: OTT and top-20 in Proximity 200+, Scrambling Gained, and SG: P (Poa), the ideal recipe for success at Torrey Pines. Entering the Farmers Insurance Open in better form than ever before, Homa seems poised to improve on his career best T9 finish here back in 2020.

Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

With a softer and wetter version of Torrey Pines in store this year compared to more recent iterations of the Farmers Insurance Open, the pendulum should swing even more towards the bombers than usual, as fairways will not offer much rollout for drives beyond their carry distance. That’s great news for Pendrith, who ranks No. 4 in Driving Distance, and has found the most success in his early career on other driver-heavy events like the Rocket Mortgage Classic and BMW Championship, where he’s picked up his two most recent top-10 finishes.

Beyond just the driving prowess, Pendrith has proven himself capable of grinding in difficult conditions, ranking top-20 in both Comp Course History and Comp Difficult Conditions. The No. 1 overall player in terms of SG: OTT over the last 36 rounds, I’m happy to back Pendrith at 100-1 odds as he sets out to improve on a T16 in his Farmers Insurance Open debut last season.

Kurt Kitayama

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Kurt Kitayama played himself into the OWGR top-50 by contending regularly at courses that require a driver-heavy game plan off the tee. In the last year, he’s posted top-3 finishes at the Honda Classic, Mexico Open, Scottish Open, and CJ Cup, so he’s no stranger to playing himself into contention on the merit of his driver. What’s encouraging for his prospects at the Farmers Insurance Open, however, is his strength around the greens. Kitayama has gained in SG: ARG in six consecutive starts, ranking top-15 in both SG: ARG and Scrambling Gained. He is the only player in the field this week to rank top-40 in Driving Distance, Proximity 200+, SG: ARG, and Scrambling Gained.

FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Similar to last week’s multi-course rotation at The American Express, there is some value to exploit in the First Round Leader market by simply loading up on players who will be playing the easier of the two courses on Wednesday, the North Course. North is not the bomber’s paradise that South is known for, playing to just around 7,200 yards, but it still features narrow fairways and thick rough that typically reward a little extra distance off the tee. The below group of five will be teeing off on the North Course Wednesday and each possess the ability to go low in easier scoring conditions.

I bet these at bet365. If you do not have a bet365 account, you can get a bet $1, get $200 in bet credits promo.

Wyndham Clark

My Bet: +5500

Patrick Rodgers

My Bet: +7000

Will Gordon

My Bet: +8000

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +8000

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +11000

FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN PROPS (3.0 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Max Homa

My Bet: +105

Best Odds Still Available:

Homa home games have been a safe bet of late, as the Los Angeles native has finished top-20 in 11 of his last 12 appearances on California Poa courses. At The Farmers Insurance Open, Homa has placed top-20 in two of the last three years, highlighted by a T9 in 2020. Homa enters this week in better form than ever before, on a streak of six consecutive top-25 finishes, so I like his floor for a top-20 finish.

Top-20 Finish: Kurt Kitayama

My Bet: +320

Best Odds Still Available:

This may be my favorite value on the odds board this week, as Kitayama has proven of late to consistently play his best on courses that allow for repeated drivers off the tee. He’s finished top-20 in such events four times over his last eight starts between the CJ Cup, BMW Championship, Rocket Mortgage Classic, and Scottish Open, so I’m comfortable buying low after a T73 showing at the Sony Open.

Top-20 Finish: Will Gordon

My Bet: +500

Best Odds Still Available:

I gave Gordon a long look for my outright card, but ultimately sided with a group of players who I felt more comfortable with in terms of closing out a tournament (these are the same famous last words that kept Luke List as nothing more than a top-20 bet in 2022). In any case, it’s clear that Gordon’s combination of Driving Distance and Poa Putting history make him a suitable fit for the course. With two top-20 finishes over his last five starts, I’ll take the 5-1 odds as he looks to improve on finishes of T42 and T21 in his first two Farmers Insurance Open appearances.

Top-20 Finish: MJ Daffue

My Bet: +900

Best Odds Still Available:

With just enough room for one more longshot on the placement card, I see enough signs for upside from the South African rookie to take a chance here. Daffue proved he can hold his own in difficult scoring conditions when he posted a T31 finish at the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club. The combination of length and difficult scoring conditions that Torrey Pines offers may be the best set up for his game he’s seen yet, as Daffue ranks top-30 in both Driving Distance and Comp Course History. With two top-20 finishes on the DP World Tour over his last four starts, he’s fully capable of landing inside the top-20 again this week.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Tony Finau

Tony Finau was a popular OAD selection at this event last year, having never finished worse than T24 over seven prior appearances. A cold putter unfortunately led to his first missed cut, so it’s possible with that disappointment still fresh, his ownership may not balloon the same way in 2023. I’m quick to forget, however. I’ll overlook two sub-par rounds in 2022 in favor of the blazing recent form which includes three wins and six top-10s over his last nine starts. It would be ideal to save a player of Finau’s caliber for an elevated event, but the combination of current form and course history are too much for me to pass up here.

If not Finau, I would also consider Max Homa, Taylor Montgomery, or Kurt Kitayama as OAD picks.

FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s Farmers Insurance Open bets. Best of luck this week with your own Farmers Insurance Open bets, and see you on Sunday for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN BETS: ODDS TO WIN THE FARMERS OPEN

Compare odds across sportsbooks in your state, and click any of the odds below to bet now.

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

View all posts by John Haslbauer