My 2022 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Card, Storylines, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on January 25, 2022
Farmers Insurance odds Scottie Scheffler

It’s been a sprint to the truncated Wednesday tee-off at the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open, but a welcomed one as I can’t wait any longer to see the first true test of golf of the 2022 season for some of the best golfers in the world. 

I’m a method golf handicapper, so I flew down to Florida this week to get in the spirit of what sunny San Diego should bring for this week’s field at Torrey Pines. Maybe there’s only half truth in that statement, but in any case, I won’t be around for Discord hours tonight. If you want to chat through any questions, please DM me on Twitter or Discord! We’ll be back in the Discord for the AT&T Pro-Am next week.

Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my Farmers Insurance Open bets as well. Each week, TheLines will provide the best available odds at legal US sportsbooks.

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BETTING CARD STRATEGY: HOW I BUILT MY FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN BETS

Card construction at The Farmers should be the polar opposite of The AmEx one week ago, as we go from one of the most random events to pick a winner, to one of the more predictable venues on TOUR.

Torrey Pines is a true test for the entire field and players with plus-distance and elite short game have risen to the top year over year. That means higher win equity at the top of the odds board, and a shorter card in order to get exposure to those top names. Unit allocations remain the same each week with 3U in Outrights to pay out 24U+, 3U in Props, and 0.5U in FRLs. FRL will once again be split across two course-specific markets.

OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Sam Burns

My Bet: +2400
Best Odds Still Available:

My Spotlight player of the week remains my number one choice to win it all this week. His game suits this course perfectly, whether it be exploiting the North Course for a low round, or grinding out pars on the South Course with his elite Scrambling ability. We just have to hope that Rahm and JT don’t bring their A-games.

Sungjae Im

My Bet: +3200
Best Odds Still Available:

We’re going (going) back (back) to Cali, and I’m going (going) back (back) to Sungjae for a second week in a row on the California swing with my outright card. Last year I went all in on Patrick Reed at The AmEx and he won the following week at Torrey Pines. I won’t make that mistake of hopping off too early this time around. Sungjae rates out third in my model this week and is amongst the best in this field in long range proximity and scoring on longer Par 4s and Par 5s. He’s had good course history at Torrey Pines, and if he can get the putter to wake up, should be in the mix once again.

Scottie Scheffler

My Bet: +3400
Best Odds Still Available:

I had no intention of betting Scottie Scheffler before odds opened, because he has a longstanding history of opening at outright odds that do not appropriately represent a player who has never before won on TOUR. This week, however, we finally get a break and a discounted number at 34-1. Scottie has an excellent track record at grinder Major & WGC events, but has also shown the ability to go super low, setting the course record recently at Memorial Park and TPC Boston. That’s a perfect combination to attack both the North and South courses this week, and he sets up well to build on his last finish of here of T7 at the U.S. Open.

Talor Gooch

My Bet: +5500
Best Odds Still Available:

I was 50/50 between Gooch and Homa for the last spot on my outright card. Surprisingly, Gooch rated out equal to or better than Homa in all of the key stats I was looking for. Gooch is great on Poa and his history at Torrey Pines and Riviera rivals his history at any other course on TOUR. When Gooch pops with his putter, he’s been a contender, as the driving distance and approach keep him in a top ball-striking tier. A bit of a buy-low spot after a disappointing showing at The AmEx, this feels like a good number to hop on with Gooch.

FIRST ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Sebastian Munoz (South Course)

My bet: +6500
Best Odds Still Available: +6000

It’s not a great fit for Munoz and the form wasn’t great last week, but we stay committed to the first rule of golf betting, which is always bet Munoz FRL regardless of the circumstances.

JJ Spaun (South Course)

My bet: +8000
Best Odds Still Available: +7000

Pretty good odds for Spaun in a split field, playing in his home town. This is not a smash spot for Spaun, but he’s scared the top of the Thursday leaderboard in recent weeks and has had a tendency to go low sporadically.

Taylor Pendrith (North Course)

My bet: +6000
Best Odds Still Available: +6500

He can hit it far, and he can putt well. That’s all I’m really looking for in a FRL candidate at 60-1+ this week. Pendrith shot -10 at the Bermuda Championship a handful of starts ago, so we know he has the ability to go low. The North Course’s Bent greens should also play to his strengths.

Cameron Young (North Course)

My bet: +7000
Best Odds Still Available: +6500

I’m not happy with how Cameron Young closed out his round at The AmEx last week, but maybe it was all a part of the plan to punt for a longer FRL number this week. Like Pendrith, he’s a bomber who can putt, but at slightly longer odds.

PROPS (3 UNITS)

Last week was not kind to us in the prop department. Cameron Young, the darling 350/1 outright and my T40 play, was in contention to win going into Sunday, only to implode for one of the worst rounds of the day, a 77 to fall back into a T40 chop. Jon Rahm was in prime position to secure the Top Euro spot before firing a lackluster -1 final round and being surpassed by Francesco Molinari. This week, we’re chasing a bounce-back.

Full Tournament Matchup: Dustin Johnson vs Marc Leishman

My Bet: Dustin Johnson +100
Best Odds Still Available: Dustin Johnson -110

There is a great unknown surrounding Dustin Johnson this week. We have not seen him since the CJ Cup three months ago, where he did not look very sharp, finishing T45 in that no cut event. With most PGA TOUR players, I assume they’ve stayed sharp practicing at home or at local facilities, continuing to grind even if not in tournament conditions. With DJ, I do have to wonder if he’s been back flipping off of boats and partying with Paulina on some resort island.

Even if we assume the worst, this is still absurd value to get Dustin Johnson at plus-money in a matchup versus Marc Leishman who is listed at double the outright odds of Johnson across most books. Johnson is a better all around golfer than Marc Leishman, and he’s putted best on Poa throughout his career. Two starts ago, he swept the Ryder Cup and looked like the most dominant golfer on the face of the planet. If anyone can flip a switch after an extended layoff, it’s DJ, and I have no problem rolling the dice on him here.

Top-20 Finish: Luke List

My Bet: +350
Best Odds Still Available:

In the top-20 market, I’m usually looking for players who safely combine recent form, course history, and course fit, but may not have the win equity of an outright bet. This week, that’s Luke List. He’s great Tee-To-Green and top-10 in Driving Distance in this field. He’s leaned on that profile to string together four consecutive top-40s at this event including a T12 and T10 over that span. He putts above his baseline at Torrey Pines, and enters with four top-25 finishes over his last five starts. He checks all the boxes and it’s a very good number at +350. I’m in!

Top-40 Finish: Sahith Theegala

My Bet: +275
Best Odds Still Available:

Theegala has a more capped ceiling than List, as this will be his debut at the Farmers Insurance Open, but he’s proven in a limited sample size his rookie season that he can grind out made cuts. Since playing in the U.S. on these grounds in June, Theegala has made the cut in seven of his next nine starts. He’s a well-rounded player whose strengths are in his short game, particularly on Poa greens. I don’t play Sahith often, but when I do, I prefer to do it in his home state of California.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Tony Finau

I’m actually very happy with my Adam Hadwin pick last week. A random leaderboard resulted in a wasted pick for anyone rostering elites like Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, or Scottie Scheffler, so to not waste any top guys and make some small change over the weekend from Hadwin feels like a small win.

This week, I’m eating the OAD chalk. Last year Tony Finau was over 20% owned in the Mayo Cup OAD, and he still paid it off with a T2 finish. This year, coming in with actual win equity following his Northern Trust win and trailing only Rahm in the Course History department, I expect him to be just as popular. It’s an obvious course fit, and there’s no other course on the schedule where Finau is going to play better than here, so I’m happy to use him in this spot.

Other top players like Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and even Rahm are worth consideration as well, but I prefer to save them for the Majors down the line.

FINAL BETTING CARD

CLOSING THOUGHTS AND STORYLINES

It’s good to be back on a difficult course that tests players’ all-around games. Like the Majors, these events tend to bring the best out of the best players, and produce a loaded leaderboard for dramatic Sunday, or in this case, Saturday, viewing.

Last week it would have been a viable strategy to pepper the 200-1+ range of the odds board at The AmEx. This week, it’s the opposite. Somebody under 40-1 odds is likely to win this event, and so I’ve concentrated my exposure to just four outrights at the top of the board this week. I’m sticking to my guns from the beginning of the week and predicting a Sam Burns victory at Torrey Pines to complete the Farm sweep. With that said, it is going to be a tall order to surpass the favorites, Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas, this week.

Here’s a look at a few last storylines I’m looking out for at the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open

A Return From The U.S. Open

With Tiger Woods out of the picture for the foreseeable future, Jon Rahm will be the one to dominate headlines every time the TOUR heads to Torrey Pines, especially in his return to these grounds after winning the U.S. Open in June in dramatic fashion.

I think Justin Thomas is viable to give him a good run this week and am optimistic based on what we’ve seen from him on Poa that he can gain on these greens. But aside from Thomas, there’s not another elite player at the top of this board who should strike fear in Rahm. He is the deserving prohibitive favorite and it will be interesting to watch how he handles his U.S. Open title defense. It will also be interest to track along how players like Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, and Brooks Koepka – who have struggled at the Farmers but looked great at the U.S. Open – will fare this time around.

Post-Birdie Fest Test

We’ve seen KFT graduates like Mito Pereira, Hayden Buckley, Alex Smalley, Taylor Moore, Lee Hodges, Cameron Young, and Adam Svensson rise quickly to prominence in the Fall Swing over a slew of birdie fests, but this will be the first true test on a demanding course in Torrey Pines. I’m interested to see who can really separate themselves in this class.

Scheduling Shifts

We haven’t seen a Wednesday start or a Saturday finish before on the PGA TOUR, so it’ll be interesting to watch if that impacts the players’ routines at all on a short week. It’s not a long ride over from La Quinta, but worth monitoring how the players with only two days for practice will fare this week.

Good luck with your 2022 Farmers Insurance Open bets!

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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