2024 PGA TOUR Golf Bets: Farmers Insurance Open Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
farmers insurance open bets

PGA TOUR golf continues with Torrey Pines next on tap to host the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, California this Wednesday. Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, and Collin Morikawa are the favorites among Farmers Insurance Open bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite PGA TOUR picks among all the golf odds offered this week. Below, you’ll find the best odds across sports betting sites for each player.

The stars are out in California, and the wait is almost over already as the PGA TOUR’s best are set to tee off one day early and clear the Sunday stage for NFL Conference Championships. Action begins this Wednesday for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines’ North and South Courses.  

Annually one of the longest courses on TOUR with thick, penal rough and small greens, Torrey Pines has long rewarded complete all-around players with above average Driving Distance and proven past performance in majors or comparable difficult scoring conditions.

Ahead, we’ll go through all the bets I’ve placed for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open.

Click on any of the Farmers Insurance Open odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state.

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HOW I BUILT MY FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN BETTING CARD

The Farmers Insurance Open betting board is led by a four-headed monster of Cantlay, Schauffele, Homa, and Morikawa. Each can be found around 10-1 odds, and each has an impressive course history with direct ties to California. While it is enticing and understandable to take a chance on any of these four stars to win this week, I simply could not get there on odds this short.

Instead, I opted to build my card around the second tier of players in the 20 to 30-1 odds range, who fit the profile of past winners with elite distance and proven recent results in difficult scoring conditions.

In terms of unit allocations for my card, it’s back to business as usual with a full card of exposure for the best full field yet in 2024 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

  • Outrights – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
  • FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
  • Full Tournament Matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
  • Props – 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each

FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)

Ludvig Aberg

My Bet: +2000
Best Available Odds:

Torrey Pines is a linear course that rewards players who drive the ball very far and very straight. Its straightforward design has also bred success from many first-timers, who can quickly devise a game plan to attack this venue.

The first name that comes to mind when I think of long and straight off the tee is Ludvig Aberg. From a ball-striking standpoint, Aberg’s swing is very reminiscent of Adam Scott, who also leaned on skillsets of long and straight drives and elite long iron play to find repeated results at Torrey Pines. This is a short number for a young debutant but remains a layout that will accentuate the Swedish phenom’s greatest skillsets.

Min Woo Lee

My Bet: +3000
Best Available Odds:

My featured spotlight player of the week, it’s easy to see the connection between Min Woo’s statistical profile and Torrey Pines, even if he is set to make his debut this week. The 26-year-old has not blinked when seeing courses for the first time, as he’s quickly stockpiled four international wins over his first four years as a professional.

He is one of the longest hitters in this field with an impressive resume in majors and a pair of wins over his last five starts. It’s no surprise to see Lee’s odds continue to be bet down as the week goes on.

Jason Day

My Bet: +3500
Best Available Odds:

Torrey Pines is a straightforward layout that rewards a very specific skillset of distance, long irons, and short game around Poa greens. So, it’s no surprise to see players like Jason Day continue to come back and enjoy the same success year after year. Day is a two-time winner of the Farmers Insurance Open and has finished inside the top 10 in four of the last six years.

From a form standpoint, it’s all green flags for Day, as he’s gained strokes across all tee-to-green categories in his first two starts of the new year.

Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

Simply put, those who hit the ball the farthest stand to gain the most strokes off-the-tee at Torrey Pines, which features one of the lowest Fairway in Regulation percentages on the PGA TOUR. From that standpoint, Pendrith will be starting on second base, as he ranks top-15 in the field in Driving Distance.

Pendrith has paid off the course profile fit with a T16 finish here in 2022 and enters in great form with four top-15 finishes over his last six starts.

Michael Kim

My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds:

The Mayor of Golf Twitter also takes up residence in San Diego and should feel right at home in San Diego ahead of his seventh career Farmers Insurance Open appearance. He’s managed five made cuts and a high finish of T23 over that stretch but should return with loftier expectations, given his current form.

Fresh off a T6 at The American Express, Kim has sustained a stretch of six consecutive top-40 finishes and should look forward to Poa greens, on which he ranks No. 15 in SG: Putting.

Scott Stallings

My Bet: +20000
Best Available Odds:

If 2024 is the year of the longshot, there is plenty of justification to take a flier on Stallings here. From a course history standpoint, Stallings has slain Torrey Pines before, winning in 2014 and following up with a runner-up finish in 2015.

One of the most muscular players on TOUR, Stallings has the power to gain on the field off the tee while also ranking top-10 in the key areas of Scrambling Gained and Prox: 200+.

Sam Stevens

My Bet: +25000
Best Available Odds:

Another player with encouraging recent form, course profile fit, and proven past history at Torrey Pines, there’s plenty to like about Stevens at odds this long. Stevens entered the final round of the Sony Open just one stroke behind eventual winner Grayson Murray before falling back with a disappointing Sunday. That said, he’s no stranger to contending, finishing in the top three twice in his rookie season last year. A T13 finisher in his Farmers debut last year, Stevens has the ball-striking chops to hang around again in 2024.

Charley Hoffman

My Bet: +50000
Best Available Odds:

It doesn’t take much to convince me to bet a player beyond 500-1 odds, but relatively speaking, Hoffman has an easy case. A San Diego native, Hoffman has impressed at the Farmers Insurance Open with three career top-10 finishes. His recent form is the best it’s been in over five years now, entering this week, with a pair of top-15 finishes over his last 10 starts.

FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN BETS: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

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Aaron Rai (North Course)
My Bet: +4000

The first-round legend kicked off his torrent 2023 FRL campaign with a share of the first-round lead at last year’s Farmers Insurance Open, proving his opening-round dominance transcends just Thursdays. While not your prototypical bomber, his ability to stay in the fairway should reward plenty of birdie chances on the North Course.

Sam Stevens (North Course)
My Bet: +6600

Stevens has struggled to put four great rounds together on the PGA TOUR to date but has the ball-striking chops to post a low opening round. A T13 debut here last year is further justification of the course fit.

Taylor Pendrith (South Course)
My Bet: +5000

In contrast to the North Course, players who begin the week on the South can separate from the pack with added driving distance. Pendrith is a bona fide birdie-maker who boasts top-10 Driving Distance and has looked encouraging in his past visits to Torrey Pines.

Charley Hoffman (South Course)
My Bet: +8000

Once a FRL legend, Hoffman draws a favorable tee time on Wednesday in the first group out at his “home” course in San Diego. It may be asking too much for this longshot to contend throughout the week, but he has made a career out of jumping off to a hot start.

FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN BETS: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Justin Rose > Will Zalatoris
My Bet: -110

All things being equal, it is not a great idea to bet against Will Zalatoris in difficult, major-like conditions. With that said, I am still not convinced we are getting the same version of Zalatoris this week as we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in years past. In his first two starts since returning from injury, Zalatoris finished in last place at the Hero World Challenge and missed the cut at the Sony Open. He rebounded for a modest T34 finish at The AmEx last week, but I’m still not convinced that a mediocre showing in a birdie-fest completely absolves the concerning prior form.

Conversely, Justin Rose has been a model of consistency both recently and at the Farmers Insurance Open. Rose continues a streak of eight consecutive made cuts entering this week, and has finished top-20 in this event in five of the last six years (including a win in 2019). I’ll err on the side of health, form, and course history in this matchup.

Top-20 Finish: Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +350
Best Available Odds:

Pendrith is two-for-two in making the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, highlighted by a T16 finish in 2022. His elite driving distance gives him a great baseline to contend this week, and a recent T10 at the Sony Open further proves there is more to his game than just the driver.

Top-20 Finish: Scott Stallings

My Bet: +550
Best Available Odds:

Chasing some upside here behind a past champion who has shown signs of a return to form in recent weeks, Stallings has shown to be at his best on courses that allow long hitters to pull driver often. Five starts removed from a playoff loss at the Sanderson Farms, Torrey Pines should bring out the best of Stallings’ skillsets.

Top-20 Finish: Sam Stevens

My Bet: +650
Best Available Odds:

Another long hitter with a spike-ball-striking upside and early success on Poa greens, Stevens will go as far as his putter allows him. In 2023, he displayed his fit for the course with an impressive T13 showing, so at these odds, I’m happy to go back to the well in hopes of a repeat.

One And Done

My Pick: Xander Schauffele

In 2023, I fell for the OAD fallacy of forcing conviction outright bets as my One And Done selections. While I would say Min Woo Lee is my most confident bet to win, the bet is also a function of his betting number. If odds were reversed, and Xander Schauffele were available beyond 20-1 odds, Schauffele would become the flavor of the week instead.

A native of San Diego, the “pressure” of winning at home feels to have subsided as Schauffele has since moved to Las Vegas, and then Florida. The No. 1 player in my model this week, Schauffele checks every box for Torrey Pines and has begun 2024 in excellent form with back-to-back top-10s.

Xander is a big enough name to save for Signature Events and majors, but that should help keep his ownership in check for OAD this week. I would expect a balanced distribution between Schauffele, Homa, and Morikawa this week. For OAD players looking to save stars for higher purses, Tony Finau, Min Woo Lee, and Jason Day also stand out as sensible consensus OAD plays. If not, Xander, I would also consider playing Max Homa, Min Woo Lee, or Jason Day this week.

Best of luck with all of your Farmers Insurance Open bets!

FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own Farmers Insurance Open bets, and see you next Sunday for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN ODDS

Compare odds before making your PGA TOUR golf bets this week by using the table below. Click the odds to bet.

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