Not all sportsbook odds boosts are worth betting. Some do not add enough additional expected value from the original price, and some sports betting apps will simply offer a better price than another sportsbook’s odds boost. The FanDuel odds boost Thursday night offers a strikeout prop on ace Gerrit Cole combine with Yankees moneyline.
It can be found by tapping the boosts button near the top of the FanDuel Sportsbook app home screen. Let’s analyze if the Cole odds boost is worth betting and show you how to measure whether future odds boosts should trigger a wager as well.
FanDuel Promo Code: New Bonus Offer
How To Analyze The FanDuel Odds Boost
Today’s FanDuel odds boost offers a Same Game Parlay on Gerrit Cole to record 7+ strikeouts and the Yankees to win up to a max bet of $50. The boosted price is +160, up from the +122 price you get if you plugged this into a FanDuel Same Game Parlay.
Step 1: Find The Fair Market Price
For straight up odds boosts on props, you can use our Prop Finder Tool to compare the odds offered on the same prop across sportsbooks. This one is a little trickier, as it’s a Same Game Parlay. These days, books offer worse prices through their Same Game Parlay generators than they do through a traditional parlay on the app outside the SGP machine.
Using the Prop Finder Tool, we find his straight-up K prop is at 7.5, which doesn’t help us here, because the odds boost is for 7+ strikeouts (over 6.5). So we have to search alternate K prop lines. Searching legal sportsbook apps, here’s what I found for alt-lines on Cole over 6.5 Ks:
- FanDuel: -172
- DraftKings: -210
Now, let’s find the best available price on Yankees ML from our MLB odds page, with New York at Boston Thursday night:
So the fair market prices for each leg of this SGP is -172 for 7+ strikeouts and -167 for Yankees ML (at the time of publish). Using a standard parlay calculator, we get a fair market price of about +153 for this parlay.
Step 2: Calculate The Expected Value Increase
Now that we have a fair market price to compare with the odds boost, we can calculate how much additional expected value (EV) this FanDuel odds boost gives us.
First, convert each price to implied probabilities. There are calculators that can do this quickly for you, but the equation is:
[100 / (positive odds + 100)] x 100 = implied probability
Using this formula, we find these implied probabilities:
- Fair Market Price: 39.53%
- FanDuel Odds Boost Price: 38.5%
Finally, to calculate how much of an increase in expected value this is:
(fair market implied probability/odds boost implied probability) – 1 x 100
So (39.53/38.5) – 1 x 100 gives us about 2.67. This is how much additional expected value the FanDuel odds boost is offering, about +2.7% EV.
Step 3: Is It Worth A Bet?
Typically, we’re looking for at least +5% EV to consider betting an odds boost. It is also not uncommon for us to see odds boosts offered that add +10% or even +15-20% EV.
The final analysis you should always consider when deciding whether or not to bet an odds boost is actual on-field handicapping. How do the two teams matchup? Are advanced statistics indicating potential regression from recent performances.
As our +EV increase is below 5% in this case, we won’t go into that here. This is not an odds boost I would personally wager on Thursday.