For upcoming UFC odds at Saturday’s Fight Night — actually taking place in the U.S. morning/afternoon since it’s in London — FanDuel has unveiled an odds boost on a parlay for two of the main card fights. Is it a legitimate odds boost? Not all boosts are worth betting. Some do not add enough additional expected value (EV) from the original price, and some sports betting apps will simply offer a better price than another sportsbook’s odds boost.
This UFC odds boost can be found by tapping the Boosts button near the top of the FanDuel Sportsbook app home screen. Let’s analyze if the FanDuel UFC odds boost is worth betting and show you how to measure whether future odds boosts should trigger a wager as well.
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How To Analyze The FanDuel Odds Boost
Saturday’s FanDuel odds boost offers a two-leg parlay on Tom Aspinall and Chris Curtis to both win their fights on the main card. Aspinall headlines the card in his home country against fellow heavyweight up-and-comer Curtis Blaydes. Before that, Curtis faces off in the co-main against top-10 middleweight Jack Hermansson.
Step 1: Find The Fair Market Price
This part is simple enough for this FanDuel UFC odds boost. We simply need to figure out the fair market price for this parlay. We’ll use the consensus lines to get a full market picture for each fight. Then, we’ll remove the vig.
Plugging these into a no-vig calculator reveals a fair price of -129 for Aspinall to win. Unsurprisingly, no-vig odds on Curtis vs. Hermansson come out to a coin flip, +100 either way. Finally, the parlay fair price: +255. The FanDuel odds boost for this UFC parlay offers +300.
Step 2: Calculate The Expected Value Increase
Now that we have a fair market price to compare with the odds boost, we can calculate how much additional expected value (EV) this FanDuel odds boost gives us.
First, convert each price to implied probabilities. There are calculators that can do this quickly for you, but the equation is:
[100 / (positive odds + 100)] x 100 = implied probability
Using this formula, we find these implied probabilities:
- Fair market price: 28.17%
- FanDuel odds boost price: 25%
Finally, to calculate how much of an increase in expected value this is:
[(fair market implied probability/odds boost implied probability) – 1] x 100
This comes out to 12.68%. So, this FanDuel UFC odds boost offers about +13% expected value.
Step 3: Is It Worth A Bet?
Typically, we’re looking for at least +5% EV to consider betting an odds boost. This, this UFC odds boost fits the bill for a +EV bet. In fact, 13% is usually going to be on the high end of the additional value, so this should be one of the better boosts you’ll find.
The final analysis you should always consider when deciding whether or not to bet an odds boost is actual fight handicapping. How do these fighters matchup? Bake your personal opinion in.
But as long as you’re near the market price for these two fights, you can click on this odds boost and know you’re getting some value. The max wager for this odds boost is $50.
