Falcons vs. Panthers: NFL Betting Preview – October 11, 2020

Posted By Staff on October 7, 2020 - Last Updated on October 9, 2020

The winless Atlanta Falcons are favored by 1.5 points as they try to end their slide in a matchup with the 2-2 Carolina Panthers on Sunday, October 11 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The game’s over/under is set at 53.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 9. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings.com.

Betting Information

Injury Report

Falcons:
WR Julio Jones: Questionable (Hamstring); CB Darqueze Dennard: Out (Hamstring); FS Ricardo Allen: Questionable (Elbow); SS Keanu Neal: Questionable (Hamstring); DE Takkarist McKinley: Questionable (Groin); SS Damontae Kazee: Out (Achilles); K Younghoe Koo: Questionable (Groin); CB A.J. Terrell: Out (Illness); S Jaylinn Hawkins: Questionable (Head)

Panthers:
OT Russell Okung: Questionable (Groin); K Michael Palardy: Out (Torn Acl); RB Christian McCaffrey: Out (Ankle); WR Keith Kirkwood: Questionable (Clavicle); G Dennis Daley: Questionable (Ankle); WR Omar Bayless: Out (Knee); CB Eli Apple: Questionable (Hamstring)

Total Facts

  • Falcons games average 61 total points per game this season– 7.5 points higher than the over/under for this matchup.
  • Panthers games average 50.2 total points– 3.3 fewer than the total for this matchup.
  • Falcons games have gone over 53.5 points on three occasions this season.
  • In one game this season, the Panthers have combined with their opponents to go over 53.5 points.
  • The two teams average a combined 51.3 points per contest– 2.2 fewer than the total for this matchup.
  • The Falcons score the 14th-most points in the NFL this season, while the Panthers’ offense puts up the 18th-most.
  • These two teams yield a combined 60 points per game– 6.5 points more than the total for this matchup.
  • Carolina has surrendered the 19th-fewest points in NFL play this season, while Atlanta has given up the second most.
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Falcons Betting Insights

  • Atlanta is just 1-3 against the spread.
  • The Falcons are just 0-1 ATS when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites.
  • Three of Atlanta’s four games this year have gone over the point total.

Panthers Betting Insights

  • Two Carolina’s four games this year have gone over the point total.
  • Carolina is 2-2 against the spread.

Falcons vs Panthers: Last 5 Meetings

  • Atlanta has won their last five matchups with division-rival Carolina.
  • Atlanta has outpaced Carolina 146 points to 67 in the past five contests.
Falcons vs Panthers: Last Five Meetings
Date Home Team Total Yards Result
12/8/2019 Falcons 461-345 ATL 40-20 ATL
11/17/2019 Panthers 349-347 ATL 29-3 ATL
12/23/2018 Panthers 436-427 CAR 24-10 ATL
9/16/2018 Falcons 442-439 ATL 31-24 ATL
12/31/2017 Falcons 371-248 ATL 22-10 ATL

When the Falcons Have the Ball

  • The Falcons average points scored this season (26.5) and the Panthers points allowed (25.5) are within one point of each other.
  • When they meet or outpace their scoring average this season, Atlanta is 0-1 but 1-0 against the spread.
  • Carolina is 2-0 overall and 2-0 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 25.5 points.
  • The Panthers defense has surrendered an average of 352.2 yards per game so far this season– 43.8 yards fewer than the Falcons offense averages (396).
  • The Falcons gain 5.6 yards per play and the Panthers allow 5.7.
  • When the Atlanta offense puts together a game with at least their 2020 average in yardage, they are 0-1 overall and 0-1 against the spread this season.
  • When the Carolina defense allows less than their season average for total yards this season they are 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall.
  • The Panthers defense gives up an average of 125.2 yards per game to opposing running games this season. That’s 23.4 more yards than the Falcons have gained running the football in 2020 (101.8).
  • In games where Atlanta rushes for at least their season average this season, the Falcons are 0-2 overall and 1-1 against the spread.
  • When Carolina limits opposing teams to 125.2 rushing yards or fewer this year, they are 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall.
  • The Panthers have forced one more turnover in each game this season (1.8) than the Falcons have committed (0.8).
  • When Atlanta doesn’t turn the football over this season, they are 0-2 overall and 1-1 against the spread.
  • Carolina’s record this season when they force more than 1.8 turnovers: 1-1 ATS, 1-1 overall

When the Panthers Have the Ball

  • The Panthers score 24.8 points per game– 9.7 fewer than the Falcons give up (34.5).
  • When Carolina scores at least 24.8 points, it is 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall.
  • This season, Atlanta has a 1-0 record against the spread and a 0-1 record overall in games when it holds opponents to 26.5 or fewer points.
  • The Panthers average 58 fewer yards per game (390.2), than the Falcons give up per contest (448.2). The Panthers average 6 yards per play, while the Falcons allow 6.5 per play.
  • In games Atlanta holds its opponents to 448.2 or fewer yards, it has a 0-3 record ATS and a 0-3 record overall.
  • This season, the Panthers average 116 rushing yards per game– 9.2 more yards per game than the Falcons allow per contest (106.8).
  • Carolina has a 1-1 ATS record and a 1-1 overall record when the team rushes for at least 116 yards.
  • This season, Atlanta is 0-2 against the spread and 0-2 overall when holding opponents to no more than 106.8 yards on the ground.
  • This year, the Panthers turn the ball over 1.2 times per game, equal to the 1.2 the Falcons force on average.
  • Carolina has a 2-1 record against the spread and a 2-1 record overall when it turns the ball over 1.2 times or less.
  • This season, Atlanta has a 1-1 record against the spread and a 0-2 record overall when it forces at least 1.2 turnovers.

Falcons Players to Watch

  • Matt Ryan has thrown for 1,246 yards, seven touchdowns, and two picks on  64.7% completion (311.5 yards per game).
  • Todd Gurley has rushed for a team-leading 254 yards on 65 carries (63.5 yards per game) while scoring four touchdowns in four games.
  • In four games, Brian Hill has rushed for 94 yards on 19 carries (23.5 ypg), with one rushing touchdown.
  • Calvin Ridley has 21 catches for a league-leading 349 yards and four touchdowns. He has been targeted 40 times and averages 87.3 yards per game over four outings.
  • Julio Jones has also chipped in with 213 yards on 15 grabs, averaging 71 receiving yards per game in three games this year.
  • This season, Russell Gage has caught 19 passes on 27 targets for 208 yards and a touchdown, averaging 52 receiving yards per game.
  • Grady Jarrett leads Atlanta with 2.5 sacks, and has also collected four TFL and 17 tackles over four games.
  • Deion Jones has totaled 30 tackles, two TFL, and 0.5 sacks.
  • Blidi Wreh-Wilson has one interception and has tacked on two passes defended four in games this season.

Panthers Players to Watch

  • Teddy Bridgewater has thrown for 1,148 yards while completing 73% of his passes (103-of-141), with four touchdowns and three interceptions in four games this year (287 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 12 times for 70 yards and one touchdown, averaging 17.5 yards per game.
  • In Christian McCaffrey’s absence, Mike Davis has churned out 131 rushing yards (32.8 yards per game) and scored one touchdown in four games. He has tacked on 21 catches for 146 yards (36.5 receiving yards per game) with one receiving touchdown.
  • Robby Anderson has been targeted 35 times this season. He has 28 catches for 378 yards (94.5 ypg) and scoring one touchdown.
  • D.J. Moore has added 18 catches for 288 yards over the course of four games. He has been targeted 32 times and averages 72 receiving yards per game.
  • Curtis Samuel has caught 14 passes for 147 yards in 2020, averaging 36.8 yards per game on 18 targets in four contests.
  • Marquis Haynes leads the Panthers with one sack, and has also collected one TFL and four tackles.
  • Rookie Jeremy Chinn has collected 34 tackles and one TFL.

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