F1 Odds: 2024 Spanish Grand Prix

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Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
Spanish Grand Prix Odds
Credit: Associated Press

After the race of the season so far in Montreal, F1 returns to Europe for the Spanish Grand Prix. With two Spanish drivers having their home races and four teams who can plausibly compete, all the ingredients are there for a suspenseful weekend. With 4 teams and 8 drivers in the mix, there’s going to be plenty of opportunities in Spanish Grand Prix odds.

Make sure to check out the best sports betting sites when betting F1. Odds can vary significantly, and getting the best one makes all the difference.

Spanish Grand Prix Odds: To Win The Race

Spanish Grand Prix Race Odds AnalysiS


Max Verstappen will finally have an upgraded Red Bull this weekend, though he won’t be the only driver with new packages. Mercedes are continuing to bring their upgrades piecemeal, and the Ferraris are talking about gaining 2 tenths with their new upgrades. Given the Mercedes were arguably the fastest car in Montreal, we might have a true fight on our hands.

Max is the favorite, and he’s the likeliest person to win this race. Barcelona will be more conducive to the Red Bull than Montreal. The Mercedes, which benefited from Montreal’s slow speed corners, won’t be as friendly here, though not having a full sector of straights will help. And Ferrari, while clearly having a fast car, showed in Montreal they still can’t be trusted not to mess up.

The big wild cards of the weekend are the McLarens. Since the upgrades last year brought them to the front, they’ve been strongest on fast tracks like Barcelona. The lack of slow-speed corners should be good for them, even as they’ve focused more on resolving their lack of speed on slow corners. Ferrari and McLaren fought well for the podium in Austria last year, at a circuit that’s similar to Barcelona.

Mercedes is in for a bad weekend, in all likelihood, as their car concept is much better suited for slower tracks like Hungary or the Netherlands. The advances they showed in Montreal were admirable. It’s even possible George finds a second row inexplicably. But they seem destined for fourth fastest on the road.


Assuming Max wins, there are likely four drivers for two podium spots, both Ferraris and McLarens. (I’d apologize to Checo Perez, but he needs to apologize to racing fans for his terrible performance in Canada first.) At the end of the day, Charles Leclerc is just a better driver than Lando and is likelier to grab a front-row start. Leclerc Podium is a bet I’ve already made.

Carlos Sainz is at his home race, and all reports are that he’s going to announce his seat for next year this weekend. Sainz hasn’t done much since winning in Australia and one podium in Monaco, but the home crowd could elevate him.

Best Of The Rest

Pierre Gasly has points in two straight races and managed to qualify 4th pre-penalties in 2023 here. The Alpine has been less terrible in recent weeks, and Gasly is rounding into form after a tough start to the year. Both Alpines managed to get into Q3 last year, but with Gasly winning the War Of The Baguettes over the departing Esteban Ocon, Gasly’s likelier to finish in the points this week.

This week’s unlikely to be good for Williams, with high speed corners and only one long straight not suiting their car construct. Against Haas and Visa Cash App RB cars, Alex Albon is someone to target in head to head matchups.

Mercedes to get Fastest Lap is also a bet I’m looking to make. There’s a sizable gap from the front four cars to the rest of the field. It’s likely whoever is running at the back of the front four cars will have a big enough gap behind them to pit at the end of the race for fresh tires to earn the Fastest Lap point. Given I’m resigning myself to Mercedes running 7th and 8th on the road, it’s likely the back Merc will have a free pit stop behind.

Best of luck navigating Spanish Grand Prix odds! 

Spanish Grand Prix Odds: Qualifying

Spain has always been a track where track position is that important. Lewis Hamilton won from 2nd in 2019, Max Verstappen led for most of 2021’s Grand Prix before being caught and passed despite starting 2nd, and George Russell drove from 12th to 3rd last year. The removal of the chicane before the final corner last year significantly cut lap times and made it easier to pass.

With this at hand, it’s possible one of the top 4 teams opts for a more race-friendly setup, sacrificing starting position for long run speed. That said, there are a couple of ways to take advantage of Qualifying.

Oscar Piastri

Piastri is becoming something of a Mr. Saturday, to steal the old moniker for George Russell. Piastri has qualified on the front 2 rows in the last three races; he’s beaten Lando Norris in 2 of those 3, and since the upgraded McLaren showed up in Miami, he’s yet to be more than a tenth slower than Lando in any Quali session. His race pace is still (somewhat) lacking, and he is an easy target to pick on for Sunday head-to-head. But being a Quali merchant has its virtues. 

Last year, Piastri put the (pre-upgrades) McLaren into Q3 in his first-ever time running an F1 car around this circuit. Piastri to beat Lando, Piastri to beat Carlos Sainz, and Piastri to come in the top 3 of Quali are all bets that I’m making.

Lewis Hamilton

Hamilton can’t find his way around Qualifying this year. He’s hinted at and implied issues within the team, including a cryptic statement after Monaco Quali that he won’t beat George in Quali this year. Lewis has good reason for complaining when things don’t go his way. Notably, after a first-lap incident with Kevin Magnussen here in 2022, Lewis repeatedly told the team he should retire the car and save the engine. (He came 5th.)

Whether it’s sabotage, Father Time clicking for Lewis, or the fact that George Russell is actually just very good at driving, Lewis is down 8-1 in Qualifying so far this season to George. Given that Lewis is a name, the betting markets haven’t adjusted to Russell’s successes. Betting George in the Quali Head-to-Head and fading Lewis against the McLarens and Ferraris makes a lot of sense. Lewis has been faster on Sundays than he is in Qualifying, so if you want action on the 7x Champion, wait till he qualifies on the fourth row.