Charles Leclerc Seeks First Home Race Win For Ferrari In Monaco

Part of racing’s Triple Crown, the Monaco Grand Prix takes its usual place on the sports calendar this weekend. On the Sunday of Memorial Weekend, the race through the Monaco streets is unique on the calendar. With a heavy emphasis on qualifying results and minimal opportunity to overtake, Saturday takes center stage. Qualifying will be hugely important, though the winner of Saturday Quali in both 2021 and 2022 failed to make the podium.

Monaco Grand Prix odds will shift significantly after qualifying ends. Charles Leclerc’s home race should be a doozy, with a three-way fight at the front on the cards. Check the best sports betting sites for the latest F1 odds.

Monaco Grand Prix Odds

Race Winner

Top 3

Qualifying Steals The Show In Monaco

Saturday is the show in the principality of Monaco. The track, within city streets, is too narrow to accommodate much on-track passing with how big and wide modern F1 cars are. But that doesn’t change the fact that Qualifying in Monaco is arguably the session of the season.

Charles Leclerc

The Monegasque Prince of Ferrari has had a decidedly awful time at his home race. DNFs in 2018 and 2019 marked his first two F1 races here before the tragedies worsened. In 2021, Charles was on pole before crashing on his final run in Q3. When he attempted to drive to the grid the next day, his car didn’t work because Ferrari failed to check the left side of the car since it wasn’t the side that hit the wall.

In 2022’s wet-to-dry race, Charles was told to come into the pits while his teammate was already in the pit lane, costing Charles the lead and dropping him to 4^th. Last year, Charles earned P3 in Qualifying before a 3-place grid penalty was issued for impeding Lando Norris in Q1.

This year, however, could be the best chance for a pole position (and therefore a win). Charles clearly can put it on pole here in an inferior car, as he did in 2021. It took Max Verstappen pulling the best third sector of his life last year for the Red Bull to get pole over a (much further behind) Aston Martin. And the Ferrari upgrade package was well received on Leclerc’s side of the garage.

Leclerc Pole and Leclerc win are both bets I’ve made. This should be Charles’ week.

Oscar Piastri

Whether the newly upgraded McLaren can make it four races on the bounce in the Top 2 is the other story of the weekend. Lando Norris took the accolades in Miami, trumping Max Verstappen, but let’s not forget that Oscar was faster on the road in Qualifying in Imola. A grid drop meant that Lando, not Oscar, was fighting at the front, but Oscar was faster.

Lando benefitted from two cars that qualified ahead of him not finishing the race to make the podium in 2021. Oscar, on the other hand, had two podium finishes in his F2 career in Monaco and scored a points finish in his first career race in F1 at Monaco. He came 18 milliseconds from outqualifying Lando here last year as well. Now that the McLaren is a front-running car, that kind of performance could be enough for a front row.

Piastri Top 3 in Qualifying and Piastri over Lando in the Qualifying Head-To-Head are bets I like.

Monaco Grand Prix Picks

Daniel Ricciardo

Daniel Ricciardo has been a bit of a Monaco specialist over the years. Robbed of victory in 2016, he came through to win the race in his last season at Red Bull in 2018. Danny Ric should be on for a points finish in a car that’s managed points finishes in the last two rounds. The Williams and the Haas are two cars reliant on straight-line speed. That means they should be slow here, opening up a good chance of a Q3 appearance and points for Danny Ric.

Fernando Alonso

Two-time Monaco GP winner and five-time podium stander Fernando Alonso should also do well in Monaco. The deemphasis on straight-line speed should help the Aston Martin car. Lance Stroll described their straight-line speed as “another category” compared to the field. At a place where that’s irrelevant, the Aston should be faster.

Fernando was able to drag the 2016 McLaren Honda disaster of a car to 5^th. In an Aston that should suit the track, points, and even potentially a finish in the Top 6, should be on. Last week’s disaster for Aston only produces better odds for us this week.

Other Race Props

If a driver from one of the front four cars fails to reach Q3 or qualifies lower than they should, this might be a race to fade them. In 2021, Lewis Hamilton qualified P8, and despite Charles and Valtteri Bottas ahead both failing to finish the race, he only managed P7 in the second-fastest car. In 2023, Esteban Ocon remained third despite faster Ferraris and Mercedes cars behind him. A front-running car qualifying badly during a normal race week should move through the field. Here? Don’t expect much.

Mercedes has traditionally been weak in Monaco, and since last year, McLaren has jumped them. Both Mercedes should still score points, but fading Lewis Hamilton and George Russell against the top six drivers, and even against Ricciardo and Alonso, could be profitable.

Best of luck betting Monaco Grand Prix odds!