F1 Odds For Miami Grand Prix: Potential Bets For Qualifying & Sunday’s Race

Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
2024 Miami Grand Prix odds

Formula 1 is heading to North America for the first of five races this year. After a swing through the Pacific, Miami Grand Prix odds are now available at sportsbooks for F1’s third trip to South Florida. With Max Verstappen dominating, McLaren bringing upgrades, and Ferrari showing pace, Miami has the ingredients for an exciting weekend. With Miami being a Sprint Weekend and having limited practice time, Miami Grand Prix odds will be even more up in the air than usual.

The race is Sunday, May 5 at 4 p.m. ET on ABC. Make sure to check out the best sports betting sites to get the best odds. F1 odds vary significantly from book to book. Getting the best price maximizes your potential profits.

Formula 1 Betting: Miami Grand Prix Odds

Race Winner

Top 3 Bet

All others not listed are +600 or longer.

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Miami Grand Prix Odds: Qualifying

Ferrari have inverted their usual strength so far this season. Traditionally better over one lap, they’ve been struggling to replicate that qualifying performance this season while doing better in the race. That said, Charles Leclerc got pole in Miami in 2022, and he has said that being better in Qualifying is a priority for him and the team.

Mercedes is the true dark horse of this weekend, with an upgrade package coming in Miami. Mercedes have been at best the fourth fastest car so far this season. George Russell is 4-1 against Lewis Hamilton in Qualifying this year, which could be worth a bet. Hamilton, as the bigger name, tends to get overvalued in market, despite Russell’s superior performances this season.

McLaren’s upgrade package is worth consideration as well. McLaren have been in no man’s land this season, unsure when their car will be fast or why. The fast corners Miami has should be good for McLaren, but the last sector chicane into a long straight will be terrible for them. If the upgrade package works, they could be up there in qualifying, especially if Ferrari doesn’t get their act together.

With Sprint Qualifying happening on Friday and race Qualifying happening on Saturday, there are two qualifying sessions to bet on.

Since F1 introduced Sprint Qualifying in 2023, there’s been minimal correlation between Sprint Quali results and Race Quali times. Looking at drivers who overperformed in Sprint Quali and fading them in Race Quali can be a strategy. Lewis Hamilton came P2 in Sprint Qualifying, and then went out in Q1 less than 24 hours later. Fading recency bias can be crucial.

Miami Grand Prix Odds: The Race

Charles Leclerc

In theory, Ferrari’s adjustment from being dependent on qualifying to being better in the race should pay dividends here. Ferrari had two podium stops in Miami in 2022, and Charles Leclerc found his form in China. Leclerc to make the podium is a bet I’ve made, even though I am concerned. If the McLaren upgrades are actually successful, Lando Norris could easily snipe a spot.

George Russell

Realistically, the race for the podium is likely between four drivers for three spots. Max Verstappen is overwhelmingly likely to win, barring issue, and then Sergio Perez, Charles, and Lando are all fighting for the last two spots. Leclerc’s Ferrari teammate Carlos Sainz is a theoretical risk, but Sainz is just nowhere close to the caliber of talent of Leclerc or Norris.

The other wrench that could be thrown is Mercedes. George Russell has gone fifth and fourth in Miami the first two times the GP has run, and in both cases, he gained places in the race. If the Mercedes upgrades have actually found something, he could be a podium contender. That said, Russell is better as a Top 6 bet or a matchup bet against Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri, or Fernando Alonso.

Other Race Props

The 2024 season hasn’t been friendly to Williams, but Miami has been okay for them. Alex Albon ended up in the points in 2022 and the Miami circuit is full of fast corners and that very long back straight. With Williams’ straight-line speed being their key advantage, Florida man Logan Sargeant to make SQ2 and Q2 for the first time this year is worth a bet.

Daniel Ricciardo hasn’t had success here in one career race, but the RB driver was on for a points finish in China before being rear-ended by Lance Stroll. His (entirely undeserved) grid penalty from China probably precludes a points finish, but Daniel is worth targeting in matchups against Alpine, Sauber, or Haas drivers. Additionally, he’s +500 to be best of the rest (excluding Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren, and Aston Martin).

Lastly, Oscar Piastri is +650 to come in the top three in the sprint. Piastri is close to teammate Lando Norris on qualifying pace, but lacks speed over a full race. With a sprint win and a second last year, Piastri could qualify well and hold positions better over 19 laps than the full race.