Expert NBA Picks and Player Props: Best NBA Bets Today Jan. 4

New Year’s weekend rolls on with a compact Sunday NBA slate that still offers plenty of angles for bettors. With afternoon tipoffs on the schedule and several teams juggling injuries and travel spots, there are opportunities to find value on both sides and props.

If you’re scrolling through sports betting apps looking for the best NBA bets today, this card has a nice mix of short spreads, star-driven props and one plus-money same-game parlay to target alongside ongoing sportsbook promotions.

Here are three game lines, four player props and one three-leg parlay that stand out on Sunday’s board.

Game Lines

Detroit Pistons +5.5 (-115) vs Cleveland Cavaliers

🏀 Odds via BetMGM 📈

Detroit has been one of the surprise stories of the 2025-26 season, sitting near the top of the Eastern Conference behind Cade Cunningham’s leap and a defense that has taken a big step forward. Getting more than two possessions with the Pistons against a Cavaliers team that still goes through scoring droughts from its role players feels generous, especially if Detroit’s size on the glass can limit second-chance looks for Cleveland’s frontcourt.

Orlando Magic -6.5 (-115) vs Indiana Pacers

🏀 Odds via Caesars Sportsbook 📈

Orlando has built an identity around length and physicality on the defensive end, routinely making life difficult for smaller backcourts. Indiana, on the other hand, is stuck near the bottom of the East with a defense that struggles to contain drives and protect the rim for a full 48 minutes. In a home spot where the Magic can lean on Paolo Banchero and their deep frontcourt, laying the points against an overmatched Pacers group makes sense.

Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-102) vs Brooklyn Nets

🏀 Odds via bet365 📈

Brooklyn has been competitive and has flashed solid defensive stretches over the past few weeks, but the Nets still lack consistent halfcourt creation outside their primary scorers. Even with Nikola Jokic sidelined for an extended period, Denver remains dangerous thanks to Jamal Murray’s shotmaking in a system that reliably generates efficient looks. Laying a short number with the defending champs in a game where their depth and execution should wear down Brooklyn over four quarters is a reasonable position.

Player Props

Evan Mobley over 16.5 points (-110)

🏀 Odds via Caesars Sportsbook 📈

With Cleveland’s offense often tilted toward Donovan Mitchell’s perimeter shot creation, Evan Mobley benefits from weaker coverage as a roller and face-up threat. In a matchup with a Detroit defense that will be busy chasing shooters off the line, Mobley should find pockets in the midrange and around the rim, and a competitive game environment supports him getting enough volume to reach the high teens in scoring.

Jay Huff over 1.5 made threes (+105)

🏀 Odds via BetMGM 📈

Big man Jay Huff has evolved into a credible stretch option, spacing to the corners and above the break while still providing rim protection. Against an Orlando defense that loves to pack the paint and dare non-stars to beat it from outside, Huff should see clean catch-and-shoot opportunities. Two makes at plus money is an appealing way to back his expanded role.

Alexandre Sarr over 7.5 rebounds (-128)

🏀 Odds via bet365 📈

Breakout center Alex Sarr has quickly become a foundational piece for Washington, using his length and mobility to vacuum up boards on both ends. Facing a Minnesota frontcourt that can miss its share of jumpers and relies heavily on one primary big to control the glass, Sarr’s activity around the rim and ability to stay on the floor in different lineup combinations give him multiple paths to clearing eight rebounds.

Luka Doncic over 8.5 assists (+108)

🏀 Odds via Caesars Sportsbook 📈

Luka Doncic has unsurprisingly posted massive usage and assist numbers as the engine of the Los Angeles Lakers' offense. Opponents tend to load up on him and send extra help at the ball, which forces the ball out of his hands and creates plenty of kick-out and dump-off opportunities. If the Lakers’ shooters cooperate, nine or more assists is well within reach in what projects as a high-possession game, making this one of the better NBA player props today at plus money.

Up to $250 Bonus Bet

Code: TLCSPO20X Copied!

Play Now Caesars Promo

21+ New users only. Must register using eligible promo code. First bet after registration must qualify. Max. Bonus Bet: $1,000. Bonus Bet expires 14 days after receipt. Void where prohibited. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537)

Today’s Best Parlay

🏀 Combined Parlay Odds: +567 (via BetMGM)📈

• Leg 1: Michael Porter Jr over 25.5 points (-119)

• Leg 2: Cam Thomas over 18.5 points (-105)

• Leg 3: Jamal Murray over 27.5 points (-116)

This three-leg parlay leans into offensive firepower in the Nuggets-Nets matchup. Michael Porter Jr, now in Brooklyn, has taken on a larger scoring role on the wing and should see plenty of usage attacking Denver’s weaker perimeter defenders as he looks to dominate his former team. Cam Thomas remains one of the league’s purest microwave scorers capable of piling up points quickly when given the green light, and he should be aggressive in a game where Brooklyn needs his creation. Jamal Murray is the focal point of Denver’s attack with Jokic out, and his combination of on-ball scoring and late-clock responsibility makes a high-20s point night realistic. Tying these three overs together creates one of the best NBA parlay picks today for bettors chasing plus-money upside on a relatively short slate.

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Play Now BetMGM Promo

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA) 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

As the first weekend of 2026 gets rolling, this Sunday card offers a nice mix of early tip-offs and showcase spots that should appeal to anyone building out NBA picks today. As always, monitor injury reports, compare numbers across sports betting apps and use available sportsbook promotions to squeeze as much value as possible out of your best NBA bets today.

Ready to Bet? Check Our Latest Offers

➤  Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code

➤  bet365 Bonus Code

➤  BetMGM Bonus Code

All Odds as of 6:00 a.m. ET on Jan. 4