Euro 2024: France vs. Poland Odds, Austria vs. Netherlands Best Bets Best Bets & Predictions Tuesday

Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
euro 2024 odds

It’s a sprint to the UEFA Championship Knockout Rounds. The Netherlands (1-0-1) play Austria (1-1-0), with the winner locking themselves into the Round of 16. Poland (0-2-0) are eliminated but also have a longshot chance to make things difficult for France (1-0-1), the current favorites to win the tournament in Euro 2024 odds. Group D has a chance to deliver the most excitement and chaos this week, with just a single point differentiating the three contending nations; all three also have a +1 goal differential.

Netherlands vs. Austria kicks off in Berlin while France vs. Poland is in Dortmund. Both matches kick off concurrently on Tuesday at 12:00 p.m. ET. FOX and FS1 have TV coverage in the United States. As for predictions, James Tippett, author of The xG Philosophy, has contributed his best bet below. 

Euro 2024 Odds: Netherlands Vs. Austria

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Both nations need a victory – or at least to draw – to make the Knockout Stage here. Following a 2-1 win over Poland, Netherlands played to a 0-0 draw in their second match against France. Austria fell to the French, 1-0, then beat Poland, 3-1, to keep their Round 2 hopes alive and concurrently eliminate Poland from the tournament.

Sportsbooks like the Netherlands with roughly a 45.5% chance to win the match. Austria checks in with a 26.7% implied chance at victory. A draw is the second-most likely outcome, lined at 31.8%.

This is the pivotal match in terms of who does and does not advance through Group D. Scroll down to see all the scenarios for the four Group D participants to advance to the Knockout Stage, be it with a Group D win or second- or third-place finish.

Netherlands vs. Austria Predictions & Best Bets

With France playing a Poland team that have already been eliminated, all eyes will be focused on Netherlands vs Austria as Group D comes to a climax.

Netherlands are the favourites here, but have yet to set the world alight in terms of their xG performances.They scraped past Poland  in their opening game, accumulating 1.58(xG) to their opponents’ 1.24(xG) but managing to win 2-1. Then on Friday night, they only managed to accumulate 0.41(xG) against France – the fourth lowest xG total of a team in a game this tournament.

Austria have put up relatively similar xG performances to Netherlands. They’ve accumulated 0.97(xG) more than their Dutch counterparts against the same opposition (France and Poland), but conceded 1.01(xG) more than Netherlands.

This means Austria have an xG difference of -0.87(xG) so far, while Netherland have -0.83(xG). Given how similarly the two sides have played, I’m happy to back Austria at the value price of to win.

James Tippett, author of The xG Philosophy

Euro 2024 Odds: France Vs. Poland

Firmly out of Knockout Stage contention, Poland don’t have much to play for aside from spoiling the party for France, the favored nation to win Euro 2024. Sportsbooks aren’t forecasting a spoiler Tuesday. The French have roughly a 77% chance to win the match, versus just a 9.1% chance at the upset for the Polish. A draw is the second-most likely outcome (~16.7%).

Goal prevention has been the name of the game for Didier Deschamps’ squad. France beat Austria, 1-0, in their opening game and played to a 0-0 draw against Netherlands on Friday. Poland were defeated 2-1 and 3-1 in their first two matches against Netherlands and Austria, respectively.

Of course, the health of Kylian Mbappé hangs heavy over the story of France during the tournament. He suffered a broken nose in the opening match and didn’t play against Netherlands. With odds skewed this far in France’s favor, Mbappé may be returning to the pitch.

Group D Knockout Stage Scenarios, Tiebreakers


  • Win-and-in, either with a Group D win or second-place finish.
    • Win with higher GD than Netherlands to win Group D.
    • Second in group: Draw and Netherlands win
  • Draw, Netherlands win, and Spain beat Albania.
  • Draw, Netherlands loss and GD no greater than -2.
  • Loss, Spain beat Albania, and Netherlands loss, with lesser GD (or more goals scored, or fewer disciplinary points) than Netherlands.

France likely move on as the top third-place finisher, even with a loss Tuesday.


  • Win-and-in, either with a Group D win or second place finish.
    • Win with higher GD than France to take Group D.
    • Second in group: Draw and France win.
  • Draw, France win, and Spain beat Albania.
  • Loss, Spain beat Albania, and France loss, with lesser GD (or more goals scored, or fewer disciplinary points) than France.


  • Win-and-in, either with a Group D win or a second-place finish.
    • Win Group D with a win, and France loss.


Euro 2024Group Odds

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