Euro 2024 Bets For Thursday: England Vs. Denmark, Spain vs. Italy, Slovenia vs. Serbia

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Written By The xG Philosophy | Last Updated
euro 2024 bets

Euro 2024 is underway, and after cashing Under 2.5 goals in England’s first match, I’ve picked out my best bets for the first Thursday of the tournament, using Expected Goals (xG) to highlight teams and players who we expect to perform well. For a further explanation of how we use xG to identify the value in the market, check out our Expected Goals reference page. Before betting Euro 2024 odds, make sure to lock in any available Euros betting promos.

We have bet one unit on each of the following soccer picks unless stated otherwise.

England vs. Denmark Odds

My Bet: Under Total Goals (-145)

England’s tournament got underway on Sunday afternoon against Serbia in a game where the two teams produced just 0.69(xG) between them. That’s less xG than was created in any of the 380 Premier League matches last season.

I tipped Under 2.5 goals in that game and will be doing so again in England’s second game of Euro 2024.

The Three Lions face Denmark on Thursday afternoon. The Danes played out a 1-1 draw against Slovenia in their opener, but won comfortably on xG and conceded very few good chances. I expect Denmark vs. England to be another clash, where the defences win out in a narrow England win.

Gareth Southgate has already been the subject of grumbles this tournament, but given how he prioritises defensive stability over attacking flair, Under 2.5 seems to be where the value is here.

Italy vs. Spain Odds

My Bet: Spain To Win

Novice soccer bettors, please note: this is a three-way moneyline bet where a draw in the match will still result in a lost bet.

I tipped Spain as the value pick to win Euro 2024 before a ball was kicked, and they duly delivered in a 3-0 win against Croatia in their opening game.

The xG data for this game comes out slightly skewed as Spain went into a comfortable early lead, before taking their foot off the gas and allowing Croatia a few chances. But the defensive solidity they showed in the first half was typical of Spain in recent years. Remember that they conceded just 5.60(xG) across their eight qualifying matches. 

In attack, Alvaro Morata showed his prowess at getting into great goalscoring positions, and he looks a decent bet to score first again at .

As for the opponent, Italy are a team in transition – no one really knows what they could bring to this tournament. The picture isn’t any clearer after their first game either, as they beat Albania (possibly the worst team in the tournament) by one goal and a relatively slim xG margin.

As such, I think Spain are a good bet to triumph in this clash.

For Euro 2024 group odds, click on the team profiles linked in the group table below.

Editor’s Note

Serbia vs. Slovenia Odds

My Bet: Benjamin Sesko First Goalscorer

My final tip comes from the first match on Thursday. Serbia are favourites to come out as winners of this match, but it’s a Slovenian player who caught my eye in the first round of games. Serbia will have to open up a bit and show more attacking intent after losing their first game, which will also play into the hands of this bet.

Benjamin Sesko had a few shots at goal that very nearly ended up in the back of the net, but the woodwork denied one particularly spectacular effort. Sesko scored 14 goals from 8.86(xG) for RB Leipzig last season, showcasing his natural finishing ability and clinicalness.

Best of luck with your Euro 2024 bets!

Euro 2024 Groups

Looking for futures or Group Odds for Euro 2024? Click on the team profiles below to find them.

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup EGroup F
HungaryCroatiaSerbiaAustriaRomaniaCzech Republic

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