Euro 2024 Odds: France Vs. Spain Semifinal Betting Preview

Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
france spain odds

Just four teams remain in the 2024 UEFA European Championship. In the first semifinal, France battle Spain for a seat in the Final on July 14. Call this one a true coin flip – the latest Euros odds line Spain at to win in regular time. France are to win without the need for extra time or penalty shootout. A draw has about the same implied probability. Let’s dive into France vs. Spain odds, player props, starting lineups, and more for the Euro 2024 semifinal.

France vs. Spain begins Tuesday, July 9, at 3 p.m. ET in Munich.

Euro 2024 Semifinals: France Vs. Spain Odds

Click any of the odds below to make a wager and find the best soccer sportsbook promos here. Compare France vs. Spain odds in the semifinals from the best sports betting sites below. Click anywhere to place a bet.

Last Updated on 06.27.2024

Three-Way Moneyline (Result After 90 Minutes)

At +175, Spain have roughly a 36.4% win expectancy to win in 90 minutes. France have about a 32.3% chance to win and a full-time draw lines to about 35.7%.

France rank second in the world, according to FIFA’s current World Rankings, while Spain are eighth. It’s a fitting matchup for a semifinal like this. The winner faces either England (fifth) or Netherlands (seventh) in the Euro final.

Check out the Euro 2024 bracket for each team’s path to the final.

Best Bets For Spain vs. France Odds

James Tippett, author of The xG Philosophy, is contributing to during Euros, using the Expected Goals advanced metric to identify bets he believes have value and a better chance of cashing than the implied probability in the odds. Here are his bets for Spain vs. France.

France to Win

The first semifinal sees popular pre-tournament pick France face up to arguably the most impressive team at the competition so far in Spain.

Spain were our outright tip before a ball was kicked, and have been very clinical in how they’ve gone about their business. Their xG difference is +4.65(xG), which is the third best of any team. However, their opponents in the semis are one of the teams to have bettered their xG performances.

France boast an xGD of +4.89(xG), having conceded 1.60(xG) less than Spain over their five matches so far. Incredibly, France players have scored zero goals from 8.18(xG) so far. We expect this unlucky run of finishing to come to an end and for them to score at least a couple of goals in this game.

It should be a very even match, and as such, odds of +225 for a France victory are more than tempting.

Kylian Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer

Interestingly, despite Spain being favourites to beat France, Kylian Mbappe is comfortably the bookmakers’ favourite choice to score in this game. The Frenchman has generated the third most xG of any player at the competition (2.84), yet has only notched 1 goal so far.

Much for the same reason as why I’m backing France to win this game, I believe luck will even out and that Mbappe has a stronger chance of scoring than the bookies are estimating.

And despite a strong tournament so far, Spain did concede 2.14(xG) to Germany in the quarter-finals, suggesting that they do allow quality opposition to create chances against them.

As such, I believe these odds are highly generous.

France vs. Spain Props

Game Props

Looking for another way to bet France-Spain? Check out the game props below. Click anywhere to bet.

Player Props

Check out offerings from individual player props for France vs. Spain. These aren’t the only offerings, so be sure to browse sportsbooks’ full catalogs.

Euro 2024 Team Profiles

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