Euro 2024 Bets: Soccer Expert Predictions To Win & Top Goal Scorer Longshot

Written By The xG Philosophy | Last Updated
euro 2024 bets

It’s time to lock in some Euro 2024 bets. The tournament is finally upon us, and I’ve picked out my best bets for the tournament using Expected Goals (xG) to highlight teams who we expect to perform well. For a further explanation of how I use xG to identify the value in the market, check out our “What is xG? page.

Unless stated otherwise, I have bet one unit on each of the following Euro 2024 bets. Click any of the odds below to bet now. We’ve collected the best available Euro odds for each of the potential wagers below. New users also get strong soccer betting promos.

SPain To Win Euros (+850)

England and France currently head up the outright market for Euro 2024, but a team who the bookies seem to be overlooking is Spain.

Spain achieved the third-best xG Difference per 90 minutes of any team in the Euro 2024 qualifying groups, achieving an average of +1.64(xG) more than their opponents in these games. 

This is no mean feat in a group that featured Erling Haaland’s Norway and an in-form Scotland.

In attack, their primary outlets were Joselu and Alvaro Morata, who generated 3.97(xG) and 3.75(xG), respectively. The team created the third-most xG of any team during the qualifying groups.

But they really impressed in defense, conceding just 5.60(xG) across their eight group matches. Historically, teams with the best defenses tend to excel in International tournaments, and Spain’s xG conceded in the build up to Euro 2024 was bettered only by England, who conceded 4.13(xG).

If the top favorites win their groups, as expected, the Euro 2024 bracket would put Spain on the opposite side of England and France, meaning their path to the final would avoid both.

Best Odds For Spain Props and Futures

Top Goalscorer Or Golden Boot Winner: Romelu Lukaku

Just as England and France stand out at the top of the Euro 2024 winners market, so too do Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe stand out at the top of the goalscorers market. You can check it out at the best soccer betting sites.

Romelu Lukaku might have something to say about that. The Belgian forward was the top scorer in the qualifying group stage, scoring an impressive 14 goals. This put him some way ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored ten in qualifying but finds himself shorter in the top goalscorer market for the Euros ().

What’s more, Lukaku managed the best xG per 90 minutes of any player in the qualifiers, accumulating 1.72(xG) for every 90 minutes he played. The Roma forward is certainly getting in the right areas, and he’s been finishing off his chances as well recently, scoring 13 goals from 11.61(xG) in Serie A last season.

Best Odds For Euro 2024 Golden Boot

Tiebreaker procedures are different depending on your sportsbook listing odds as “top goalscorer” or “Golden Boot winner”. Check out our Golden Boot odds post for more information. It could be the difference between winning and losing your bet.

Editor’s Note

Highest Scoring Team At Euro 2024: France (+350)

In the highest-scoring team market, you’re looking for two things:

  1. The team who are likely to go all the way to the final and play the full seven matches.
  2. A team who are generating a lot of scoring chances.

France tick both of these boxes. While England, favourites for the competition, will rely on their defensive solidity when it comes to the knock-out phase, France are likely to adopt a more gung-ho approach. On top of this, they generated 20.86(xG) in their qualifying games, the most of any team by some distance.

They’ve got Kylian Mbappe up top, who we know has the ability to create high xG chances for himself and also has the finishing skill to put the ball in the back of the net.

Euro 2024 Groups

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup EGroup F
HungaryCroatiaSerbiaAustriaRomaniaCzech Republic

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