Euro 2024 Bets For Sunday: England Vs. Serbia, Slovenia vs. Denmark, Poland vs. Netherlands

Written By The xG Philosophy | Last Updated
euro 2024 bets

Euro 2024 is finally upon us, and we’ve picked out the best bets for the first Sunday of the tournament, using Expected Goals (xG) to highlight teams and players who we expect to perform well. In Group C, tournament favorite England faces Serbia, with Denmark also kicking off against Slovenia. Also in action in Group D is the Netherlands vs. Poland. FOX Sports carries television and streaming coverage in the United States. Kickoff times in the odds tables below.

For a further explanation of how we use xG to identify the value in the market, check out our “What is xG? page. We have bet one unit on each of the following selections unless stated otherwise. Click any of the odds in this post to bet now on Euros odds. New users can also lock in big soccer betting promos.

Serbia vs England

My Bet: Under Total Goals (-105)

England’s highly anticipated Euro 2024 campaign gets underway on Sunday afternoon against Serbia. The Three Lions are favourites heading into the tournament, but my tip in their opening game is Under 2.5 total goals.

The xG data suggests that England are very strong in defence. They conceded just 4.13(xG) in the qualifiers, and although the absence of Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw is likely to cause a shakeup of sorts, Gareth Southgate has always prioritised defensive stability over attacking flair in international tournaments.

England lost their final warm-up game 1-0 to Iceland, creating just 0.87(xG) in the process. Their attack, although filled with brilliant players, is likely to come up against a strong Serbia back line. The Serbs conceded just 0.91(xG) per 90 during the qualifiers, only slightly more than the likes of Belgium (0.88), Italy (0.85) and Netherlands (0.85).

The cagey nature of opening Group Stage games is also likely to play into this bet’s hands.

Slovenia vs Denmark

My Bet: Denmark Forward Rasmus Holjund First Goalscorer

Thursday afternoon also sees Denmark kick off their Euro 2024 campaign. The Danes were defeated by England in Extra Time of the semifinals of Euro 2020, and they’ll be hopeful to replicate such a run in this year’s edition.

I’ve picked out Rasmus Hojlund in the First Goalscorer market as my favorite bet in this game. The Manchester United striker was only provided with 5.70(xG) in his last 16 Premier League appearances last season, showing that his teammates weren’t finding him. However, he managed to score 10 goals from these chances, indicating that he can be clinical in front of goal.

Playing in front of a Danish midfield including Christian Eriksen and Matthias Jensen, two of the most creative players at the tournament, will mean Hojlund should be blessed with more chances and more goals.

For Euro 2024 group odds, click on the team profiles linked in the group table below.

Editor’s Note

Poland vs Netherlands

My Bet: Poland to Win ()

Our final tip comes from the first match on June 16. For the novice bettors out there, remember this is a three-way moneyline, where a draw is a loss and not a push.

Netherlands are strong favourites to beat Poland in the first match of a strong group, which also houses France and Austria. Although Netherlands are definitely more likely to win this game than Poland, the xG data from the qualifiers hints that these teams are much more similar in quality than the odds suggest.

Poland created 0.89(xG) per 90 minutes more than their qualifying opponents. The same figure for the Netherlands was 1.16(xG). If there is only 0.27(xG) between these teams in this game, then Poland at +550 seems to be a decent value bet. 

It’s true that Poland will be without Robert Lewandowski and a couple of other key players, but the price still looks favourable from a data perspective.

Best of luck with your Euro 2024 bets!

Euro 2024 Groups

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup EGroup F
HungaryCroatiaSerbiaAustriaRomaniaCzech Republic

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