ESPN College GameDay Week 11: Ole Miss At Georgia Odds, Betting Preview, Picks
ESPN College GameDay travels to Athens for Week 11 to feature the week’s top SEC matchup: the No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels (8-1) at the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (9-0). Georgia is a home favorite in the game, which also carries an over/under of . The Bulldogs can also clinch the SEC East with a victory Saturday. A loss for Ole Miss eliminates them from the SEC West race, and Alabama clinches the division. This is the first matchup between Kirby Smart and Lane Kiffin, who worked together on Alabama’s staff under Nick Saban in 2014-15.
Below, we’ll break down this SEC blockbuster. Find the latest Ole Miss at Georgia odds, team assessments, and picks for the game.
ESPN College GameDay: Ole Miss at Georgia Odds
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Georgia Vs. Ole Miss Quick Look
| Georgia | Stat | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| 24.5 | Power | 17.3 |
| 22.3 | KFord | 17.6 |
| 3.68 (5th) | PPD | 2.98 (13th) |
| 1.39 (11th) | PPD/A | 2.18 (63rd) |
| 6.8 (8th) | YPP | 6.4 (19th) |
| 4.6 (16th) | YPP/A | 5.1 (39th) |
| 1-0 | Top 25 Record | 2-1 |
Table key: Power (TheLines aggregate power rating), KFord (KFord Rating), PPD (points per drive scored), PPD/A (points per drive allowed), YPP (yards per play), YPP/A (yards per play allowed), Top 25 Record (record vs. top 25 teams in TheLines’ aggregate power ratings – NOT AP or CFP polls!)
Georgia Bulldogs Preview
After losing over 20 defensive prospects to the NFL over the last two seasons, Georgia has taken a step back, as expected. But that drop was marginal. Rather, the 2023 Georgia defense is merely “elite” as opposed to “historic.” The Dawgs stand top-20 in most defensive metrics, like yards per play and points per drive. Notably, though, they will be without star linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson for this game. Dumas-Johnson joins All-American tight end Brock Bowers on the “out indefinitely” list.
But even without Dumas-Johnson, Georgia has the advantage defensively. The pass rush has generated pressure on 37.5% of opposing dropbacks, 14th-best nationally. That number comes with relatively few blitzes; rather, Georgia allows their front four to work opposing offensive lines. The result has been mixed – while pressure rates and win rates from players like Chaz Chambliss and Jalon Walker remain high, sacks have been hard to come by.
Rather, the secondary has been the strength of the UGA defense this season. Malaki Starks and Javon Bullard are the nation’s top safety duo, each presenting a strong All-American case. Tykee Smith has also been a hammer as the nickel safety.
Offensively, Carson Beck has quietly put up terrific numbers even without Bowers. Beck’s passer rating (112.8), completion rate (72%), and yards per attempt (9.2) are all top numbers nationally. Ladd McConkey has been a bolt of energy in the passing game since returning from injury. Daijuan Edwards also has been strong, although the Georgia backfield as a whole has dealt with injuries this season.
Ole Miss Rebels Preview
The offensive line has been of moderate concern for Ole Miss this season. Jaxson Dart is the fourth-most pressured QB in the SEC. The unit also lost a starter in practice this week, right tackle Micah Pettus suffered a “serious” injury and is out for the foreseeable future. Reserve Cedric Melton has just 19 snaps at the position this season but grades well in pass blocking, according to PFF.
Dart has taken a large step forward this season. Thanks to a strong receiving corps led lately by Tre Harris, Dart stands third in the SEC in yards per attempt (10), and he has 16 big-time throws to just six turnover-worthy plays (four interceptions). Harris took over against Texas A&M, hauling in 213 yards and snagging multiple one-handed highlight catches. The improvement in the passing game is welcome, as Ole Miss’ run game took a step backward from its dominant form last year.
Defensively, the unit appears to have taken a step forward under new coordinator Pete Golding. However, these numbers need context. Over their last three games, the Ole Miss pass rush generated a sack on 10.2% of opposing dropbacks, but those games came against Auburn, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M – two teams below SEC average and an A&M offensive line that might be the conference’s worst. Prior to then, they also snuck out a win against Arkansas (pre-Dan Enos firing).
ESPN College GameDay Week 11: Georgia Vs. Ole Miss Preview
Two things can and likely are true: Ole Miss is a strong football team, and also their rankings and metrics are a bit inflated. ESPN’s FPI ranks Ole Miss sixth in strength of record, due large in part to a 4-1 record in the SEC West. However, each win deserves more context than that. Aside from the mentioned recent four-game stretch, the Rebels out-dueled LSU, who neglects to field a defense; Georgia Tech (57th in TheLines power rating); and their final score against Tulane may be the most misleading of the season – Tulane had >50% win expectancy heading into the fourth quarter.
Georgia is a step up in class defensively from what Ole Miss has seen lately. The Dawgs may be the most complete team the Rebels have faced all season, including Alabama (who was struggling to find an offensive identity in Week 4).
However, the cornerback duo of Kamari Lassiter and Daylen Everette have their hands full this week with Harris and complement Jordan Watkins. Without one of their top run blockers in Pettus and the mismatch that is Georgia’s front seven, the Rebels may look to the passing game. Missouri was able to find relative success with their alpha receiver Luther Burden III against the Dawgs just last week. It’s possible Dart works Harris into the game early and often.
Weather Forecast For Ole Miss At Georgia
Rain is in the forecast for this game. While not expected to be torrential – and the wind is expected to be moderate – a soggy afternoon may throw a wrench in the plans of any pass-heavy game plan either offense has for this game. As always, check in on updates to that forecast.
KFord Rating assessment
Find Kelley’s work all season long with TheLines!
Georgia lands seventh in both my Most Deserving Rankings and power ratings. This team might not be as elite as the 2021 or 2022 Bulldogs, but that doesn’t mean this team isn’t really good – they are.
With a power rating rank of No. 15, this is the lowest I’ve had Ole Miss since Week 1. And at No. 13, this is the worst relative scoring margin rank the Rebels have had all season. Despite the five game winning streak, they are slowly trending the wrong way.
Bottom line, I have Georgia -7, with a 69% chance the Dawgs get their first win against the Rebels since 2012.
Kelley Ford, TheLines College Football Podcast
Ole Miss at Georgia Odds: Best Bets
“Fraudulent” isn’t an appropriate word to describe Ole Miss this season. At least, not to the extent of last year. However, their resume and metrics do need context in that their competition – daunting as the SEC West logos may seem – hasn’t really been all that stiff. Georgia is a marked step up in class on both sides of the football. Because this game is played in Athens, I’m laying the points with Georgia in this game (). Though small in sample size, the Rebels have played worse away from Oxford this season.
Rather than leave the SEC East up for grabs in their head-to-head with Tennessee next week, Georgia has an opportunity to shut the door on Saturday.
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