Premier League Best Bets Utilizing Expected Goals (xG) For This Weekend

Written By The xG Philosophy on October 1, 2021 - Last Updated on October 2, 2021
EPL best bets

Our third installment in this series, we once again use English Premier League Expected Goals data to take a look at some of the best value among EPL best bets this weekend.

The previous two weekends have both seen three of our four bets come in. This leaves us +16.80 units in profit after just eight matches utilizing EPL xG data.

Our Expected Goals resource page has an explanation of xG strategy and how it can be used to succeed in soccer betting markets. You can also pick up a copy of The Expected Goals Philosophy.

I have bet one unit on each of the following matches, unless otherwise noted.

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Manchester United vs. Everton

Saturday, October 2, 7:30a ET

Market Analysis

Last week, we explained Man Utd’s early-season troubles and explained why we were backing Aston Villa to win at Old Trafford at a price of 12.5%. That bet paid off handsomely and we’ll be backing Everton to follow in Villa’s footsteps this weekend.

The bookies are actually pricing the Toffees at the same odds as they did the Villans last week, despite Man Utd’s lackluster display last weekend.

Everton are on a good run of form. They haven’t ‘lost’ a game on xG so far this season. Our model estimates they have a 27.4% chance of victory against the Red Devils, so I’ll be staking one point on them to emerge triumphant. You can get on Everton to win.

Bet On Everton Odds Now

Burnley v Norwich

Saturday, October 2, 10:00a ET

Market Analysis

Norwich have endured a torrid return to the Premier League so far. They are yet to collect their first point and currently sit right at the bottom of the table.

The Canaries have created just 4.94(xG) so far – the smallest total of any team. Their defense isn’t much better, conceding the third most Expected Goals so far (12.80).

They come up against a Burnley team who have their own problems, but on paper look much better than Norwich’s outfit.

I’ll be staking one unit on a Burnley victory at 52.9%. You can get Burnley on the three-way moneyline at to round out this week’s EPL best bets.

Bet On Burnley Odds Now

West Ham v Brentford

Sunday, October 3, 9:00a ET

Market Analysis

Brentford travel to the London Stadium having won every game on xG so far this season – Man City are the only other team to boast such a record. The Bees are fresh off a 3-3 draw with Liverpool, in a match where they actually created more Expected Goals than the former Premier League champions.

West Ham have also enjoyed a fairly strong start to the campaign, creating 11.73(xG) in the opening six matches – that’s the third best record in the division.

Despite this, the bookies appear to massively overvaluing the Hammers’ chances of victory against Brentford at 54.1%. As such, I’ll be staking one unit on the away team at 19.2%. The best available odds on Brentford sit at .

Bet On Brentford Odds Now

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